Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Are entitlements deadly?
Published on February 10, 2007 By Draginol In Politics

Europe is dying.

It will take awhile. But in the course of a few decades, the Europe that we know and love will be gone.  Even today, the world of "My Big Fat Greek Wedding" is largely something that can only exist in fiction. Any Greeks reading this? How many brothers and sisters do you have? Any?

Below is a table of the birth-death rate for selected countries from the year that just ended:

  Birth rate Death rate
Country 2006 2006
Australia  12.1 7.5
Austria  8.7 9.8
Belgium  10.4 10.3
Czech Republic1  9 10.6
France  12 9.1
Germany2  8.2 10.6
Greece  9.7 10.2
Ireland  14.4 7.8
Israel  18 6.2
Italy  8.7 10.4
Japan  9.4 9.2
Mauritius  15.4 6.9
Netherlands  10.9 8.7
New Zealand  13.8 7.5
Norway  11.5 9.4
Panama  21.7 5.4
Poland  9.8 9.9
Portugal  10.7 10.5
Romania  10.7 11.8
Switzerland  9.7 8.5
Tunisia  15.5 5.1
United Kingdom  10.7 10.1
United States  14.1 8.3

If the deathrate is higher than the bith rate, you get the idea.

In fact, if the deathrate is even close to the birth rate, you have a problem because, obviously, not al births are healthy children. Some will die. Some will have disabilities that preclude them from reproducing.

These numbers are worse than they look for anyone who is a fan of western civilization.  The reason? Because the only reason western Europe's birthrat is even close to the death rate is due to first genration birth of immigrants who are ovewhelmingly Islamic (coming from North Africa or Asia Minor). 

A lot of people, mostly Europeans, don't like talking about the I-word (Islam). It's a touchy subject and so they try to pretend Islam is a race rather than a religio-ideology and treat those of us who are concerned with it as racists or bigots or what have you. But Islam is a different culture, whether you like it as a culture or not is subject for a different discussion.  But when a native culture isn't reproducing itself and a foreign culture is, then in a human-life span or two, the foreign culture is the native one for better or worse.

But what is the cause of this?  Why have Europeans in particular given up on having children?

My opinion is that it is entitlements. Consider this: Why have children? What is the incentive other than biological urge, to have children?

Or more to the point, what is the incentive to have more than one child? Maybe you have a girl and want a boy so you have 2?

In the time before cradle to grave entitlements, people had children for a very specific reason: Because they needed them.  They needed them to work the farms. They needed them to help out in the household. They needed them to take care of them when they became old and infirm.

But now? What do we need kids for? Mother government will provide for us. The more urbanized, the lower the population growth. All those government services are so convenient. It takes a village right?  And when you get old, you don't need children anymore. No, the government will pay for your medicine, house you if necessary, and provide money to allow you to live pretty well.

But who am I to judge? I'm an only child. And in fact, I'm not trying to judge. I really don't consider one path to be morally superior to the other. So don't shoot the messenger.

Unless the birth rate of European countries changes course, and there's no reason to think it will, the native population of Europe will be decimated and it will only be a matter of how much immigration they are able to bring in that determines how well their country fairs economically. Of course, thena gain, it won't be their country anymore will it?


Comments (Page 2)
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on Feb 12, 2007
It might also be a self-fulfilling prophecy in that people might not want to have their children live in the world they see coming.
on Feb 12, 2007
It might also be a self-fulfilling prophecy in that people might not want to have their children live in the world they see coming


Now that's defeatism
on Feb 12, 2007

In Quebec, over here, those 2 measures have been somewhat been taken (more or less) and we are experiencing a small babyboom ever since a good financial aid was allowed to family with small children. The birth rate jumped from 1.4 to 1.6 in 1 year.

So after instituting a massive entitlement directed at increasing birthrate Quebec went from dying off to dying off but slightly slower?  This is not an example of success.

Societies have to want to have children.  Something is making people simply not want to have people.  I think a lot of it is that people are now too self-involved to do it and there's no incentive to have children. 

I'm sanguine about Europe dying off. I figure, either everyone else might get rich and stop having kids too, like China, or the economy might change so having a low population is an advantage (fewer food riots), or European culture might could spread faster than the change in population and leave more "Europeans" than we had before, or any number of future histories.

European culuture is certainly not spreading -- not fast or slow. It's not spreading at this point. What "European" culture do you imagine is being spread around these days?  And pretty soon, there won't be enough native Europeans to make a marginal impact on the world.

I don't mind looking at having children as an incentive problem, but I feel like you should factor in that people would have children whether they "needed them" or not. Because we're animals. You can't fix everything about an animal with economics. Like, you can't bribe a panda to mate with any amount of bamboo.

People have sex for instinctive/hormonal reasons.  The urge to have a child is a far lower impulse. Mother nature never took birth control into account.  

We're not talking about people not having children in some theoretical sense. They are NOT having children now. The birthrate in Spain is 1.1. The question of whether people will have children whether they need them or not is already answered -- today. People aren't having them.

And statistically, the people not having them are not based on how much money they make but rather their culture. Culture is determining whether they have children or not.  When I hear about someone saying "Well we could fix this if we provided more day care" I can't help shaking my head.  It's such lazy thinking. We have plenty of census data on this kind of thing that we know which groups reproduce and at what rates.

Consider this, the average white Republican family's birth rate in the United States is 1.8.  The average white Democrat family birth rate is 1.4.  The economics of both groups are almost identical. If you peel off the "Christian Conservatives", that groups' birth rate is 2.1 and their economics, are again, nearly identical to the other groups.  I do not think religion is the key issue as much as it relates to a culture of priorities -- having families versus focosing on onesself.

 

on Feb 12, 2007
Societies have to want to have children. Something is making people simply not want to have people. I think a lot of it is that people are now too self-involved to do it and there's no incentive to have children.


Actually, the Quebec model is not a bad idea. IN the beginning, the income tax was only to tax the excess wealth - after allowing for the cost of raising and caring for a family. But over time, the tax - in all western societies - has become confiscatory, so that many people dont think they can afford children. Instead of giving them (families) a hand out, how about just deciding how much it would cost for a family of X to live on, and then exempting that money from ALL taxes? IN other words, let's get back to the intention of the income tax and stop taxing "live on" pay.

But as you correctly point out, that may only result into a slight up tick in the birth rate. But it is a start.
on Feb 13, 2007

The 2nd problem is symptomatical to all western society: the need to work. The drive to work, and you end up screwing your career if you have kids. Off course, more often than not, it's the woman who will screw it up (getting 2-3 "pregnancy break" 1-2 years long often ends your fired in some places). The same is said about fathers, who will then need to work overtime in order to financialy manage to keep the same rate of life the couple had when they were DINK (Double Income No Kids). This end to a less satisfying life, and resentment against your children on the long term.

This problem can be fought with governement regulations to forbid employers to fire women on "nursing leave" for less than 2 years (and even then, I think it's not ennough) and heavy financial aid based on the number of child you have, and the loss of income they make you suffer. that way, you are less afraid to have children if you have a good earning, 'cause you'll get something proportional to what you lost. And people who are too lazy to find a decent job won't end up making thousand kids just for the fun of having the money, 'cause they won'T get the most benefits out of it.

So after instituting a massive entitlement directed at increasing birthrate Quebec went from dying off to dying off but slightly slower? This is not an example of success.

Societies have to want to have children. Something is making people simply not want to have people. I think a lot of it is that people are now too self-involved to do it and there's no incentive to have children.

And statistically, the people not having them are not based on how much money they make but rather their culture

And what about France? It is pretty close to have a birth rate of 2 and it is experiencing a many baby boom since year 2000 (between 700 000 and 8000 000 birth per year) . And it has some policies to help people have children and keep working:

- financial aid to help working parent having their young children (that are too young for the klindergartern) guarded ( sorry, I don't see a better word).

- possibility to take a parental break (when you have at least 2 children) until the younger is 3 year old, without being fired. You have also a small financial help during this break. And your employer is forced to remploy you at a similar occupation than the one you had before the break

There are also some taxes reduction for having children and needing to spend money to have them guarded

on Feb 13, 2007
This is really helpful in making me coming up with a pickup line for this weekend.

- "For the sake of Sweden, Europe and our entire Western civilization, lets go home and make babies."
on Feb 13, 2007
"And what about France? It is pretty close to have a birth rate of 2 and it is experiencing a many baby boom since year 2000 (between 700 000 and 8000 000 birth per year)"


Thanks to the influx of immigrants who receive little respect or regard.
on Feb 14, 2007

Thanks to the influx of immigrants who receive little respect or regard.

Well, the following link http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=52654 explains better the situation in France

And this link http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/29/opinion/edpfaff.php points that "the increase in French births seems not to be disproportionately due to immigrant births, the conventional inference, but that the native-born are having more babiesrate"

on Feb 14, 2007
So after instituting a massive entitlement directed at increasing birthrate Quebec went from dying off to dying off but slightly slower? This is not an example of success.


Hey, that's still and example of improvement. Meaning that it's a step in the right direction.

The main problem underlined over here is the financial problem of women who WANTS to have children, but just can't afford it. A capitalist society isn't fited to allow a woman to leave her job in order to nurse.
on Feb 14, 2007
The main problem underlined over here is the financial problem of women who WANTS to have children, but just can't afford it. A capitalist society isn't fited to allow a woman to leave her job in order to nurse.


That's what a "husband" is for!
on Feb 14, 2007
That's what a "husband" is for


In many places, a single man's income is not ennough to support a whole family (who just had 1 baby, and possibly even more before), that's the whole problem
on Feb 14, 2007
In many places, a single man's income is not ennough to support a whole family (who just had 1 baby, and possibly even more before), that's the whole problem


"In the life style they are accustomed to".

That is the problem.
on Feb 14, 2007
"In the life style they are accustomed to".

That is the problem.


If the life style proves to be too much....then change it! I did it on a single income for 2 kids and "both" are fine. They have since told me that they feel they never wanted for anything.
on Feb 14, 2007

In many places, a single man's income is not ennough to support a whole family (who just had 1 baby, and possibly even more before), that's the whole problem

No the problem is that people think that having a big screen TV, two cars, a big house, and 5 nights of eating out are a minimal standard of living.

on Feb 14, 2007

If the new French population trend should presage rising birthrates elsewhere, much angst might lift. However, this may be another "French exception." The increase in French births seems not to be disproportionately due to immigrant births, the conventional inference, but that the native-born are having more babies.

I really need to keep a list of statistic bookmarks so I dont' have to dig them up when I read BS like this.

Yes, technically what they say is correct. Where "native" born means the parents were born in France.

But if you took out the non-Islamic births and put them into a category, it's about the same as Spain's -- around 1.3 per couple.  Only because of the Islamic population (largely second generation from North Africa) is the birth rate seemingly higher.

In the report I read, the said "Go to the nursery of any hospital in France and look for the mothers."

France, it turns out, is simply further along.  Once more nations in Europe are Islamified, they too will see their birthrates rebound. Of course, it won't be a Europe we recognize.

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