Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Human causation is not that convincing
Published on May 2, 2007 By Draginol In Politics

The problem with global warming is that environmentalists are trying to act that its cause is a known fact. It is not. 

As a refresher, here is the theory of human induced global warming in short:

The molecule CO2 is a green house gas.  More specifically, when the sun's energy passes through our atmosphere and comes into contact with the carbon atoms, it holds some of that energy. As a result, heat is trapped in the atmosphere which increases the surface temperature of the Earth.

The primary source of energy used by humans involves using carbon-based energy sources.  The worst of these are fossil fuels.  Fossil fuels are so problematic because they represent carbon that was taken out of the atmosphere millions of years ago and stored underground in the form of oil, coal, etc.  When we burn these fuels, the carbon that was trapped is released and combines with O2 to form CO2 and goes back into the atmosphere.

Since 1975, the mean temperature has gone up with the last few years being some of the warmest years on record.  The environmentalist lobby has made a strong case that humans are the cause -- CO2 is higher today than it has been in millions of years, it's a green house gas, and we're tons of it into the atmosphere every day.

The problem with that theory is that it doesn't explain why global temperatures were going down between 1940 and 1975.  To me, it screams weak science.

Correlation doesn't equal causation. CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas. But we have no understanding yet about how much it really can affect temperatures.  Contrary to what some have claimed, CO2 increases have not preceded increased temperatures. On the contrary -- increased temperatures have led to more CO2 in the atmosphere historically (which isn't surprising). 

CO2 definitely has an affect on temperatures, we just don't know if it's significant or not.  For instance, all bodies of mass have a gravitational pull. You and I exert a gravitational pull (mine seems to increase every year...).  But compared to the Earth, it's insignificant.  CO2 could, in fact, turn out to be much the same thing in terms of temperature change.  Sure, CO2 is a green house gas but the amount in the atmosphere one would need to increase global temperatures could be ridiculously high.

What amazes me is how eagerly people have been to join the Human-induced global warming bandwagon even with the elephant in the room -- the time between 1940 and 1975 when temperatures were decreasing.  To me, that alone should have bred a healthy scientific skepticism in the CO2 theory of global warming.

The weather is getting warmer but we really don't have a clue why yet.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't be trying to find ways to "reduce our footprint".  I support that.  But what I don't support is the vilification of CO2 while forgetting about the dangers of sulfur dioxide, methane, NOx, etc. Watching people support monstrous things like bio-diesel (because it's "carbon neutral") sends shivers up my spine.

I certainly could be in error but I really do think that in a decade or two at most we will discover that CO2 isn't quite the boogeyman we thought it was and that other causes of global warming will be found (or even that mean temperatures start to decrease even as discussed here).

Until some environmentalist can explain why the temperature went down between 1940 and 1975 even has CO2 levels were skyrocketing, I think this talk about "human caused global warming" should show a bit more humility.  Shrillness is no substitute for logic and reason.


Comments (Page 2)
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on May 03, 2007
When people start talking global warming to me now-a-days, I have but one thing to say to them...."Right, tell that to the people in Ohio that got slammed by that "snow" storm in "MID-APRIL"!" You know what? "None" of them has an answer to that.


umm, how about the people in TEXAS! (yup, we got 9 inches in the Panhandle on April 13).


I hadn't heard about Texas. You know what though? All these people here talking about global warming and none of them can answer the question either.
on May 03, 2007



The above was taken April 13, 2007 at 9:00 pm, very early in the storm.
on May 03, 2007
Let's try it this way:

WWW Link

That's the whole album, though...but the snow pic is there.
on May 04, 2007
Until some environmentalist can explain why the temperature went down between 1940 and 1975 even has CO2 levels were skyrocketing, I think this talk about "human caused global warming" should show a bit more humility. Shrillness is no substitute for logic and reason.


Well I’m not an environmentalist but one possible explanation could be the pollutants that were pumped into the atmosphere at the start of the industrial era. It wasn’t until the early 70’s that the clean air act was passed and required factories to use scrubber’s to remove soot and aerosols. The sky’s cleared and the temperature has been rising ever since.
on May 04, 2007

Reply By: stubbyfinger
Posted: Thursday, May 03, 2007

That gets a cookie for stating my belief succinctly and well!

on May 04, 2007
Well I’m not an environmentalist but one possible explanation could be the pollutants that were pumped into the atmosphere at the start of the industrial era. It wasn’t until the early 70’s that the clean air act was passed and required factories to use scrubber’s to remove soot and aerosols. The sky’s cleared and the temperature has been rising ever since.


Well looks like you're doing the most talking about it. How about "you" answer the question then. If global "warming" is such a problem...then "why" the blizzards in MID-APRIL?
on May 04, 2007
As I wrote before, drmiler:

It's the average temperature that's allegedly rising. Global warming isn't a theory attempting to explain freak weather in Ohio; as the name might have suggested it's about global weather patterns.

To go into this further:

The world is a big place. The temperature is not constant - weather conditions, distance from the sun, seismic activity, pollution (of the standard kind as well as the heat that radiates from any conglomerate of modern humans like a town or city) and many other factors all combine to give parts of the world their own weather patterns.

These weather patterns are unstable - rain tends to stop and start in different locations at different times of the year because the conditions at those times are more suitable, not because the weather is run according to some celestial clock.

So if through freak eddy in the winds the upper atmosphere is cold enough to freeze a large amount of water vapour then snow will fall irrespective of whether the average temperature has risen. Why? Because weather is not reliant on averages but on the specific circumstances of the day.

Does that help or do you need a better explanation? I guess at base the thing to remember is that averages are not rules, so a change in the average doesn't forbid something from happening.
on May 04, 2007
The global climate is very dynamic; as the overall mean temperature rises the system gets revved up and extremes become more common.

There are few who deny global warming exist, only that humans are a major factor in it. I believe that we are having an effect but I don’t see it as being catastrophic. Plants like CO2, and with higher temperatures there’s going to be more cloud cover reflecting sunlight back into space so I see nature balancing itself out. The Earth’s had to deal with massive increases in CO2 before without mass extinctions.

It doesn’t bother me when extreme environmentalists shout doom and gloom. If Sheryl Crow wants to use one square of TP, whatever, that’s probably why Lance left her There’s only a few ways you can get people to do the right thing and fear and guilt work as well as any.
on May 04, 2007
the earth is warm blooded
on May 04, 2007
It's the average temperature that's allegedly rising. Global warming isn't a theory attempting to explain freak weather in Ohio; as the name might have suggested it's about global weather patterns.


If I understand Doc correctly, it is not about One freak storm or another, but that they GW kooks use every "non-average" event to claim that proves Global warming. As they did with the Snow storms in April (we got one as well), the Greenland sheet increasing, the Antartic sheet decreasing, the warm January, the cold March.

In other words, if the world froze tomorrow, to the kooks, that would be proof positive of global warming (want proof? Watch the Day after tomorrow).

Any wonder why rational people hear "Global Warming" and tune out the kooks?
on May 04, 2007

I think Brad’s being optimistic when he says’s we could know for certain in a decade or two. I think it could be several decades or even a century before we have clear understanding of the causes of climate changes and our role if any in them. It’s that complex.

I just think there are decent odds that the temperature will start to cool.

Until then the only safe measures that can be taken now are to reduce our output. And I think a certain amount of pain at the pump and sacrifice of convenience is necessary to achieve that. Any attempt at counter measures would be foolishly tampering with processes that we know very little about and we have many examples in the past of us making things worse with these ill-conceived attempts

I am all in favor of us trying to reduce our overall food print. Give me a GM Volt (new hybrid electric car they're working on) and I'll buy it.  Make it easy and convenient to have some solar power on my home (heck, make it a building code on all new construction -- even if they're only doing 1KW it's better than nothing). 

But this has nothing to do with global warming to me.  I just think we're better off reducing our impact.

on May 04, 2007

Well I’m not an environmentalist but one possible explanation could be the pollutants that were pumped into the atmosphere at the start of the industrial era. It wasn’t until the early 70’s that the clean air act was passed and required factories to use scrubber’s to remove soot and aerosols. The sky’s cleared and the temperature has been rising ever since.

I'm afraid that's not plausible.  To get a global affect like we saw we'd have to do a LOOOT more. 

Even now, with China polluting like crazy, the smog impact is very local.  We humans are still a relatively small force in the world when one looks at the global perspective.

on May 04, 2007
What's funny about the "greenhouse effect" argument is that conditions in a greenhouse are not drier, they are more humid. If the polar ice caps were melting at the rate some demand, there would be more atmospheric water, and, as a result, more precipitation. We would be more likely to experience TROPICAL climates than DESERT climates.

But what do I know? I just learn the old fashioned way: by OBSERVING!
on May 05, 2007
I'm afraid that's not plausible. To get a global affect like we saw we'd have to do a LOOOT more. Even now, with China polluting like crazy, the smog impact is very local. We humans are still a relatively small force in the world when one looks at the global perspective.


I think a more thorough analysis of the temperature data collected between 1940 and 75 would be necessary before dismissing this explanation. As I understand it the global temperature is an average, so if the temp measurements in industrialized areas dropped two degrees and the temps in South America and Antarctica only rose half a degree then the global average would still be lower.
on May 05, 2007

I think a more thorough analysis of the temperature data collected between 1940 and 75 would be necessary before dismissing this explanation. As I understand it the global temperature is an average, so if the temp measurements in industrialized areas dropped two degrees and the temps in South America and Antarctica only rose half a degree then the global average would still be lower.

The same can be said from 1975 to present. 

Some parts of the world are warmer, some are colder.  I could just as easily argue that the ozone depletion caused more UV rays to get through at the caps that somehow caused more polar melting.  I don't actually think that but like I said, correlation is not causation automatically.

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