Polls are interesting things but statistical analysis is my thing.  And based on our models in The Political Machine, Kerry is going to squeak out a victory in November barring a sudden change in events.

The Florida of 2004 may be where you least expect it - Iowa. Ohio and Iowa are going to be the key states this time. But it is Iowa that people should be keeping an eye on even more so than Ohio or Florida. It has a relatively low population which creates all kinds of opportunity for messing with the final results.

Moreover, Bush can potentially win the election and still lose Ohio as long as he gets Iowa.  That's because Wisconsin is likely to go Bush this time.  So you could have a bizarre scenario where Bush wins the election despite losing Ohio.  In that event, it would be Bush 271 to Kerry's 267.

Obviously when it's as close as it is, it's really hard to make a definitive prediction. Our statistical model is not poll driven but is instead issue driven. The war in Iraq is no longer as strongly favored by independents and the jobs issue in Ohio has increased.

So our prediction right now is that Kerry has an advantage even though national polls currently favor Bush. And that the two states to watch out for are Ohio and Iowa. The computer controlled versions of Bush and Kerry in our simulations now focus almost exclusively on those two states.  New Mexico could also go either way but it isn't statistically relevant.

This article does not indicate a preference by Stardock or Ubi Soft. It is just a report from our statistical model and from waching the computer controlled versions of Bush and Kerry.  If you're an American, regardless of where you live, please make sure you are registered to vote and vote this November.