Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.

About a year ago, I wrote “The lights go out: What happens if the grid goes down”.  It talked about what would likely happen if the power went out and works through the first 4 weeks.  In short, it’s not a pretty picture.

Doomsday Scenarios

Below are my opinions and just my opinions. They’re based on reading and researching these topics in my spare time out of morbid curiosity.  I define a doomsday scenario as a scenario where the civil society could potentially break down as a result.  The break down of civil society (law and order) would, in turn, activate the “preppers” various bug out / bug in contingency plans.

Scenario #1: Economic Collapse

I consider the likelihood of this happening to be basically zero.  It seems to be the most discussed, most feared scenario I read online. At the risk of alienating preppers right off the bat, I consider this scenario largely baseless.

 

Scenario #2: EMP attack

imageThis is the scenario where someone sets of a powerful electromagnetic pulse that fries the power grid and many low voltage dependent systems.  There is a lot of debate on the level of damage this would do.  My opinion is that any EMP attack worth considering would, at the very least, wreck the power grid for an extended period of time.  However, I don’t think it likely that it’ll take out cars (even modern cars).  While the computer systems in cars are sensitive and a car isn’t a true “faraday cage” I am highly skeptical that an EMP would take out most cars, modern or not.

Nevertheless, an EMP attack would probably cause many millions of people to be without power for an extended period of time.

The odds of this happening in our lifetime I think are pretty low.  If I had to guess, maybe 1 in 100.

Scenario #3: Solar based EMP

imageSometimes called coronal mass ejections, these solar based EMPs could truly wreck our day. We’ve had them before (Carrington Event) which occurred in the 19th century. Had this hit us today, we’d have a huge issue (I’d guess worldwide power outages that could take months to repair).

We had one in 2013 on July 16th…well, almost. It missed us by a solar day.  So this isn’t a question of if, it’s a question of when and how bad.  The electrical grid in most countries is hooked up like an extra fragile Christmas tree.  It would not be inaccurate to describe it as “cobbled” together.  It works but it’s not very robust.  It takes remarkably little to knock out the power for huge swaths of territory.

The odds of this happening in our lifetime are pretty low also. I’d say 1 in 50.

Scenario #4: Cyber based attack

imageThis one worries me quite a bit because few people are aware of it. Some people have heard Stuxnet and other weaponized computer worms that have been used to slow down Iran’s nuclear program.  But few people have given much thought of how vulnerable the United States and other western countries are to this kind of attack. 

In 2003, the Northeast of the United States and Canada went without power for about a week, affecting 45 million people. It was largely caused by a software bug at a single power station in Ohio.  Imagine a malicious attempt to wreck the control systems for the power grid.

The odds of this happening I think are a lot less remote than people think. Probably 1 in 25 in our lifetime.

Why losing power is such a big deal

Overall, I’d say that the odds of something causing a national, extended power outage to be about 1 in 10.  Anyone under 50 probably has no experience of just how recent electrical power actually is.  A century ago, most people didn’t have electricity and even 75 years ago, it was considered pretty flaky.  Yet, today, we are totally and completely dependent on it.

Let’s walk through a few of the things that would happen if we lost electrical power for an extended period of time.

  1. Our logistics system would be trashed.  We are now very dependent on “Just in time” infrastructure. That is, we don’t keep huge warehouses anymore. We deliver things just as needed to maximize efficiency.  To put things into perspective, you could cripple our economy just by wiping out the computers at Fed Ex and UPS. 
  2. Little food. Your local supermarket relies on daily inventory replenishment. Even if the trucks and trains and such are still running, the ability to deliver food would be severely disrupted. 
  3. No gas. Our capacity to refine, deliver and distribute gasoline would be curtailed dramatically. So while I don’t personally think there’s a realistic scenario where your cars and such would be directly affected by a viable doomsday scenario, your ability to drive might not last very long.
  4. No money. How much cash do you keep on hand? No power, no credit card processing.  Let’s focus on this a second. Next time you’re out doing something, consider what would happen if you no longer had the ability to use a credit/debit card but instead had to rely purely on the cash on hand. How would that work out for you? Imagine a cyber attack that disrupted the merchant account services sector and nothing else. What about ATMs? Nope, they’re down.  How about going to a teller? No power, they can’t tell you how much you’ve got in the bank. I think we’d be able to quickly adapt (i.e. write things down, as long as you have an ID, but it would slow things to a crawl).
  5. Water. Water is something I think we would probably do okay with. We’d soon run out of running water but barring a truly worst case scenario, this is one area I think the government could help large %’s of the population with (distributing water). But if you’re in a more rural area, it would get sticky and our ability to produce and deliver food would still become a huge problem.  I’m just saying I don’t think water would be the “SHTF” trigger in a likely doomsday scenario. At least, as long as the government is up and running and can coordinate with local producers/distributors of bottled water.
  6. Habitation. God forbid that this happen in the Winter.  Natural gas would likely flow for a long while but you wouldn’t be able to do much with it if there’s no electricity. Similarly, our ability to store food (no refrigeration) would be reduced.
  7. Communication.  Our ability to communicate would drop to nill. I think much of the Internet, powered through extensive backup systems (depending on the severity, a really powerful EMP might wreck the ability of natural gas based backup systems to function) would be ok.  But our ability to connect to it would be greatly reduced. I’m not confident my local cell tower or Comcast would be up for the duration.

There’s probably more I am not thinking of here. In, fact, I’m sure there are.  Moreover, the severity of the points above really are dependent on how resources/handy you are. The big question though is how long would modern civil society be able to last without electricity?  How habitable is a modern American city without electricity? Would/could order be maintained?

The big assumption I make here is that our vehicles would still work.  I can envision EMP based catastrophes that are bad enough to fry most cars. My problem with those scenarios is that they’re about as likely as us being hit by a extinction level asteroid/comet or a mega volcano or a super plague at which point, all bets are off.

No, to me, the big question would be maintaining civil society.

The thin veneer of civilization

For the purposes of our discussion, things don’t really “hit the fan” until civil society breaks down. In my opinion, the most likely trigger for that would be lack of food.

I have a high confidence in our government’s ability to obtain and deliver water for a long period of time.  I also believe that state and local authorities could obtain and distribute food for an extended period of time – a month for instance. But without our modern logistics system up and running, after a month, food shortages would become very serious. 

There have been many documentaries on how our food is produced now (manufactured is probably more accurate). It’s a very complex industrial process with a lot of moving parts.  It’s not like we would stop producing any food at all.  But our ability to feed 300+ million people daily rests on our modern manufacturing and logistics system which is dependent on electricity.

So for me, the big question is, how long, without electricity, would most people be able to obtain enough food to feed themselves and their families.  Once the ability to obtain food without violence disappears, so too does civil society.

So what do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Also:

Check out the Ultimate Bug out Vehicle.


Comments (Page 2)
on Aug 14, 2013

StevenAus

It is a different time from the 1930s, and there are a lot of positive things happening, if you avoid the doom and gloom merchants (the mainstream media).

And worrying about all the worst possible scenarios isn't really beneficial or productive.  If it happens, it happens.  Why reduce one's own happiness today for something that might never happen, and even if it did, there would be nothing one could do about it?  I'm not going to, but what you do is up to you.  The current time is the only thing you can do something about, and if there is a combo of, might never happen, combined with, nothing I can do if it does happen, well, worry is a waste of time, anyway.  Action based on something you can affect is different.

Best wishes to all.

Tell that to Coptic Christians throughout the Middle East right now, or the several million dead tribesmen in the Sudan over the last few decades or the Tutsi's in Rwanda over the 50 years at the end of the 20th century.  

Optimism is commendable, but as a solution to real and serious potential pitfalls in society it fails miserably.  Civil society is an immensely fragile thing.  If we want to enjoy it, and to keep enjoying it, as you say we need to fight for it.  Human nature works against the creation of civil society.  It's only through thousands of years of tradition and technological progress that we've been able to build up an increasingly lawful and civil society. 

Brad's question here, and others like it, are important to help us figure out what incidents could rip society apart and set us back so that we can take action to make sure they don't happen.  

A perfect example local to me would be hurricane Sandy.  No one in a position of responsibility did anything to increase the city's preparedness against hurricanes in roughly the last 50 years even though the frequency and strength of storms hitting this region are trending up.  Worry, in this case, wasn't a waste of time.  NOT worrying about something relatively obvious cost billions of dollars in damage and several hundred deaths.  And that storm DID cause the collapse of civil society, at least locally in certain communities for a few days or weeks. People in some areas were openly carrying shotguns to deter looters from entering their house because areas were cut off from power and government services (police, fire, etc).  They were quite literally on their own for that period of time.

And in the case of this particular idea, Brad's question is one of the big ones.  This scenario isn't small regional unrest caused by a temporary disruption of services like Sandy.  It's the end of civil society.  Discussing it and at least considering the likeliness is a good thing.  It may not be very likely, but it's certainly not more likely just because we've talked about it.  

 

on Sep 02, 2013

Kantok
Tell that to Coptic Christians throughout the Middle East right now, or the several million dead tribesmen in the Sudan over the last few decades or the Tutsi's in Rwanda over the 50 years at the end of the 20th century.  

Well. Yeah. That's why doomsday prepping is largely wasteful fearmongering.

We all need realistic supplies in the event of emergencies. Hurricanes, civil unrest, etc happen every few years or so, and we face power outages and money shortages and food outages due to random f- ups in life as well. Your standard preparedness calls for maybe 2-3 weeks of food and water, and rudimentary first aid and medical supplies. Tools like small crank or gasoline generators or an all weather radio are good too.

Depending on where you live, you'll need to modify the amount depending on the infrastructure. If you live in the Australian Outback, you'll probably want a year's supply or more.

 

But the fact is, a major economic collapse or electrical grid collapse would NOT send us back to the dark ages. There would not be gangs roaming through the streets, there would not be mutants, there would not be armies of looters in leather jackets with punk hair cuts and chains whipping around.

Life of course, would be total shit. However, let's not forget. THE WORLD IS FULL OF AREAS WHERE PEOPLE HAVE NO ELECTRICITY OR INFRASTRUCTURE!

-Somalia is a terrible place to live, full of bandit and chaos. It is however, not the post-apocalyptic nightmare land everyone thinks the 'doomsday' would be. 

-Many parts of rural China don't have access to 24/7 electricity or running water. These isolated villages manage to survive without falling into chaos because they DO have links to a centralized government

-Many parts of Africa don't have 24/7 electricity or running water. They are plagued by bandits and warlords. Some warlords use child soldiers to fight each other. Yet people still manage to live their lives.

Humans in various parts of the world have lived through terrible, horrible unrest, famine, plagues and other things. Some of them are living through that RIGHT NOW. They survived. My own family survived through terrible authoritarian crises in the 50's. This obsession with doomsday prepping is pretty ridiculous to anyone who survived through such tragedies.

-There are no events that knock out of all the world, forever. Central governments exist, and they can and have existed without power or modern day conveniences. Even if we did suffer an EMP, local and federal governments could still communicate by messenger, laws can be enforced by men with guns on horse or foot. Soldier and police aren't going to disappear. Chains of command will slow down..but heck, Britian managed a worldwide empire without even the aid of the telegraph.

-The world isn't isolated. Even if the United States suffers a major terrorist attack or ecological disaster, other countries are around to help. Canada, Mexico, Britain, even China and Russia have agencies interested in philantrophy and humanitarian aid. 

-Anything truly catastrophic is indefensible. A nuclear attack, alien invasion, or invasion by a hostile, militarily superior government would be impossible to resist. The only way to live would just be luck. It is unlikely your favorite doomsday vehicle would survive a confrontation with an MBT or helicopter gunship. THere's a large chance all your 'preps' would be for nothing due to a stroke of being on someone's target list.

Finally

-PREPPING could land you into more trouble than an actual doomsday! Running around in isolated woods with firearms? Spending lots of money on crazy offroad vehicles? Constructing 'bugout' shelters with out following building codes for wiring, safety and fire?  These are all hazards. What happens if the doomsday structure you built collapses on you? I've seen more than my share of accidents from people actually doing these preps by playing around with firearms, vehicles and doing construction tasks they just can't handle.

We live in a society. If doomsday prepping is something you're really worried about, it's better to learn these skills in a professional or at least amateur hobby capacity than kind of pissing away all your effort in fear. Afraid of nuclear attacks? Get an engineering degree, or learn stonemasonry. Worried about looters? Learn to shoot from qualified instructors and join the local gun club. Worried about food? Start planting a garden. Worried about killer asteroids? Get a degree in rocketry or astronomy. You'll serve the world better by looking for killer asteroids and engineering rockets to destroy them than throwing your life savings into a hole in order to literally..live in a hole.

It's possible to learn skills and acquire tools that have DUAL uses for doomsday and today. You need to live for today AND tomorrow. And if you're worried about doomsday, get involved in solutions to prevent it...don't just be a douche and be like "I got mine". 

 

 

on Sep 02, 2013

Sorry but you are way off in your assessment of the possibilities of what 'could' happen.   Here is why...

First you obviously pick a computer hack or virus as your primary threat... just not possible.   Someone would have to hit so many different secure systems all at the same time including hacking through firewalls at the same time.   Today though, most of those systems are much better protected... plus they are all now pretty much set with protocols that will shut down generators and grids when a threat or out of spec condition exists to insure no damage occurs.

One thing that surprised me was you gave the economic collapse scenario barely any possible chance...  you are more wrong than you realize because you are not looking at it from one very important perspective....

First, a just outright collapse on its own is not probable... HOWEVER, were countries to call in our debts it could force a collapse albeit slower than a quick and full drop suddenly.   But even that is not what I am talking about when I say a collapse is extremely possible...

The part you are missing is this:    Were this country or the world to experience a major event, natural, terrorist or otherwise that impacted a large number of cities at once, the economy would collapse overnight.

For example:   There are an unknown number of MISSING nuclear weapons around the world.   All it would take is for ONE, yes ONE terrorist to get a nuclear weapon into ONE American city and detonate it.   Does NOT matter which city.   Why?   Because every other city will EMPTY out in fear.   AND with no where to go, no survival planning or gear and no organized evacuation plan, the economy will collapse within days because all those people will be totally and completely fearful of returning to a city not knowing if their place is next on the nuke bomb strike list...

Another example is based on a EMP happening.   Again the same thing... people WILL panic when the lights, water and food systems go offline... result:  1) economic collapse.  2) mass evacuations from cities.  3) chaos.

Finally you give the Sun sending a flare our way as a minimal possibility...  Again you are wrong... why is that?  Because on July 30th 2013 we had a HUGE portion of the sun, 1/3 of it or so, blow out literally and head our way.   The government kept it quiet until AFTER it missed us by a small 2 degree margin.  News was only released 5 days after it occurred.....    Look it up.. you can still find the videos of the actual sun showing the missing section.   Had it hit us, EMP would have been the least of our worries..

But there again, economic collapse would occur.

I state all this from a perspective that most of you do not have..  I AM in the know.  I do have access to data most of you do not.  And although I am not expecting something to occur right this second nor am I living my life around something happening, I can tell you that things ARE changing and not for the better.

Right now, the most realistic and possible occurrences are as follows:   Natural event (sunspots and solar flares, earthquake/volcano etc), terrorist attack using WMD in USA, Incoming space event (asteroid, comet not yet found or seen), some other earth bound event none of us have even figured on.. (Fukashima nuclear plant type event, some change in the earths magnetic field (notice how the SUN has become HOTTER feeling on your skin) or some change in the core of the earth).

ALL of those would cause economic collapses.    Most of those we can do nothing about.. and most of those could happen at any time.   Right now we are in a higher percentage of possibly having some event because of the suns cycle, the Earth now passing through the ecliptic plane of the universe and some other things like the fact our magnetic shield is dramatically weakening now.

Again, WILL something happen?   No one knows that answer.  But COULD something happen?  Yes and right now we are in an increased risk period.

But as for your virus or hack of systems doing this?   No way.  Perhaps they could impact a part of some grid but it is now impossible to bring down the entire thing.   And any part they do drop has redundent and protective systems now operational to stop it or reroute issues.   Add to that MOST businesses, and MANY civilians all own generators which would be used whereas with an EMP those would be dead.

BTW, EMP WOULD cause most cars that rely on brain boxes to be fried.  Only DIESEL engines will be able to run without them as long as they are not electronic ignition or electronic fuel injection.   I know because of my training and expertise in the U.S. Military....

BTW, a comment to the person who wrote that there would not be chaos, roaming gangs, looters etc..  You are so wrong... Did you not see what happened in Katrina, in Sandy and in other events like those?   Imagine if EVERY city were affected in such a manner....    When people get hungry and thirsty they WILL DO ANYTHING TO SURVIVE.   You can live with your head in the sand like many do.   But WHEN the day comes that this planet does experience a major event, those who have not taken any precautions will be the first to go.   Cities WILL empty out when the food is gone.   Gangs WILL form.   People will migrate and try to find safe zones.  And people like me and others will be sitting here saying "told ya so".

Someday, maybe not tomorrow or the next day.. heck maybe not even in our lifetime, there WILL be an event.  There has been in the past many times, there will be again NO DOUBT.

We live on a small planet in the midst of one universe that exists in an almost infinite number of universes.   We do not have a clue what is out there nor any clue about the dangers that exist to this planet.. things we probably cannot even fathom....   Yes, there WILL be some events.  But there is no reason to panic, live your life worried about them nor anything else.

What you CAN do is make some easy and basic emergency plans, store a month or so of food and water, batteries and other items you may need to survive during ANY disaster and have a plan on what to do during one.   Other than that, there is not much else to do unless you want to take the time and money to invest in an underground bunker and other major preps... stuff that even if YOU do not use it in your lifetime, perhaps your kids or their kids will have occasion to do...

Those of you just denying everything really need to get with reality.. we are not immune on this planet... and nature and the universe, I am sure, has a few surprises in store....

on Sep 02, 2013

MalakieUSN
I state all this from a perspective that most of you do not have.. I AM in the know. I do have access to data most of you do not.

Of course you are....

 

....and they all moved away from him on the Group 'W' bench until he said "...and creatin' a disturbance..."

on Sep 02, 2013

Nice to be "in the know". So few of us are.

on Sep 02, 2013

Well, I don't have anything else to say except I love and care about you all very much, and I hope the next 365 days are your best yet.

on Sep 02, 2013

There are a number of doomsday scenarios (some of them very esoteric, but entirely real) that might tickle your morbid interest:

 

1) Cobalt/Zink 'dirty bomb': A such weapon in the wrong hands could theoretically be just as devastating than the world's entire arsenal of conventional thermonuclear weapons: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt_bomb     http://rense.com/general40/dooms.htm

 

2) Much like you describe, an EMP blackout, but delivered by means of nuclear explosion: http://indrus.in/blogs/2013/04/26/e-bomb_the_real_doomsday_weapon_24213.html

 

3) Soviet cold war-era doomsday devices:

 

Perimeter: This unbelievable Strangelove'esque doomsday weapons system is apparently not only real, but possibly still in existence and active: http://www.wired.com/politics/security/magazine/17-10/mf_deadhand?currentPage=all      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand_(nuclear_war)

 

Doomday Ship: Unfortunately I can't find the link (there's a clip with that period's current leader waving a small model of the ship in a flask as if it were some sort of toy, scary stuff indeed) but the Soviets were at one point considering building a 'doomsday ship'. This large cargo ship would essentially be a gigantic bomb, patrolling the USSR coasts while scanning for signs of a nuclear attack on Soviet soil, in which case it would be detonated because "If communism has failed, there would be no reason for the world to survive." This weapon was never built, however.

 

 

on Sep 02, 2013

You do realize that not everyone who is online is lying right?   That some people might just actually be truthful....    Anyone can say anything anytime while online.   That does not mean that 100% are not truthful or not actually telling you factual information.

I stand by my remarks.  I DO have access to data and information that 99% of the people do not have.  Additionally, a project I am involved in has people who have even more access than I do to live and very specific data.

Although I am not able to post or quote specifically my 'sources', what I am telling you is truthful... it is up to you to believe or not.  If you read what I wrote, there is nothing outlandish or exaggerated.   I simply stated the facts from a perspective that, as I said, most people do not have or know.

Here is a question you can ponder on top of what I wrote....

If none of this information, if none of the speculation about E.L.E. events, if none of the speculation about something ever happening is bogus than why are most countries on this planet spending so much money building underground bunkers, underground highways, and underground vaults (arks)??

Just a couple examples:  Mt. Weather and NUMEROUS other locations in the U.S., the recently found and disclosed underground SECURED interstate highway that runs from Colorado to Washington D.C. and other parts AND the continued expansion and SUPPLY to this moment of these underground facilities?

Why are so many people WHO ARE in the know, why are so many well known business people and company owners investing in and building underground bunkers now?

A waste of money?   Or do they know something you do not?

on Sep 02, 2013

I'd suggest you keep your 1% to yourself before someone decides to let NCIS know about you.

on Sep 02, 2013

And love, peace and abundance to everyone as well!  Have A Nice Day!

on Sep 02, 2013

LOL NCIS?   What the heck do they have to do with this?    First off I am not active duty anymore, I was retired in 2011 due to my 7th service connected injury.   Second off I have said NOTHING that is or could be taken as classified at all.   What I have talked about is public release knowledge you can look up via Google if you would take a moment.

NCIS?   You watch too much TV I am afraid.   They only have jurisdiction on ACTIVE duty U.S. Naval personnel... which includes the Marines since they are part of the U.S. Navy.

Regardless, I have not broken my oath nor any other classified rules.  You do not know me.  If you did you would know I am a staunch supporter of the Constitution, 2nd Amendment rights and fully believe in the oath I took to support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic.   I am one of those that if they let me, I would stand up and serve again for that reason.  

Everything I talk about or say is public knowledge... even if you have to dig for it to find it.

Couple examples:   Look at the orders Obama has passed like the one that now allows the government to seize any public or private assets, food, supplies or whatever on the governments command, or how with a simple order of martial law they can now suspend Miranda, posse comitatus, and habeaus corpus... the construction of the fusion centers and the so called 'residential centers' ... and there is more...

Oh and BTW, you can look THOSE orders up on either the Whitehouse.gov OR the Homeland security websites!

People need to wake up and start reading and paying attention.. things are happening right under your noses and you have no clue.   And NONE of that information is classified and is available for public reading if only you take the time to look it up on the governments own websites.

 

 

on Sep 02, 2013

The talk of a government collapse or debts being called in triggering this event is silly talk.

When you have a fiat currency, you can print money to pay bills, and you can also default if you wish as well.

 

There's a reason Greece became a complete basketcase and Iceland is recovering despite having worse fundamentals.

 

 

on Sep 02, 2013

About a month is best for most people.  Here is why.

I teach people how to survive under different conditions including climates (summer, winter etc).

First, if you truly want to set yourself up with a survival/emergency kit or bugout bag as it is also called, here are some tips.

1) If you live in the city, only get what you can carry!  Only carry what you can run and escape with!   Have a plan to leave WITHOUT a car because highways WILL be blocked.. if not by everyone else trying to get out then by roadblocks due to government mandate.

2) If you live in the country, only store that which you do not want to leave to someone else.  Store only what you can carry either on your person or via a vehicle if you need to leave your place.   IF you want to stock up a bunch of stuff, build and/or put it someplace HIDDEN and secure NOT in your basement or primary buildings on your property.

 

Now as for the kit your kit should include:

1) Some kind of water purification system (you can look up all the ways to purify online).   I recommend straining, boiling then bleach or some other water treatment drops.  You do NOT need to store months of water unless you live in a desert area.  We get enough rain, there are enough streams, lakes and rivers in the U.S. for you to easily find water.

2) dehydrated food packs.  Enough for 1 to 3 months depending on what each person in your group/family can carry.  You want something light yet able to give you nutrition with nothing more than adding water.

3) Fire starting.. i.e. flint, battery with steel wool etc.  Definitely something that allows you to spark and start fire without running out..  Lighters and matches are NOT good examples.

4) Rope, a mirror, razor blades, steel wool, candles and ZIPLOCK bags that can be sealed completely against water.

5) At least two knives of good quality

6) Solar charger along with rechargeable batteries for each electronic device you will bring...  Flashlight and a small emergency radio.. NOTHING else due to weight.

7) Fishing line, hooks, etc

8) Small cook kit (like military or boy scouts use)

9) two sets of clothes but at least 5 pairs of clean socks

10) Emergency blankets x 2 plus 2 x emergency tarps.   They are lightweight, hold in heat and the tarps can also be used to create shelter as well.

11) Glow sticks of at least 8 hours.  Preferably BLUE or red.   Blue preferable because the light does not carry as far and in this case you do not want people to see you glowing in the dark.  You want just enough light to see yourself.

12) Duck tape and black electrical tape

13) small good set of binoculars

14) small good star light night scope

15) Any medicines you and your family needs.  Get extra prescriptions if needed to store in your emergency kit

16) at least two 2 x primary firearms, preferably one sidearm and one long rifle.  Calibers of 9mm and any other long rifle size ABOVE .22 caliber so that you can easily find more ammo.  Think of common hunting calibers, 30-30, 30-06, .223, 308, 22-223, etc.   You want calibers that will knock someone down or stop them in most cases with ONE shot.   This is why I do not agree with those who would tell you that a .22 is just fine.  It is not.  Your chances of stopping an attack are small unless you hit them in a specific spot and for someone not an expert that is near impossible with adrenaline.  EACH member should also have at least one sidearm they carry with 4 magazines for it.  Keep in mind ammo is heavy so you need to not overload yourself in this regard.  Learn the mantra, one shot one kill and practice it both in your head AND on the range.

17) A compass!  Electronics WILL be useless!  Your cellphone will NOT work.  You need a good ole fashion compass.

18)  A PLAN!  A map and a bug out/escape route!   So many people forget this one step.  Know WHERE you intend on escaping to!

 

Now, this kit will keep you going as long as you need.  You have the ability to get clean water.  You can hunt for food. And you are light enough to be mobile.

There are some people that simply have decided to hole up, stock up and stay where they are.  Unless you have a group of 20 or more people in YOUR group, all armed, then this is a big mistake.   Why?   Let's say you hole up and you have stocked up 5 years of food, 50,000 rounds of ammo and lot's of other items.   Should the disaster event last longer than a month, you WILL see roving groups and gangs form and start looking for supplies.  And if you are holed up with just your family, you just gave them a nice fat target and there is no way you will ever be able to defend against a large group if you have less than 20 people in your group.   In essence you have just handed the roving gang 5 years of food and 50,000 rounds of ammo!

Why is your survival pack only equipped with what I wrote?   Because if you do not have a plan and an idea of where to go, if you are not able to find shelter and a defensibly place, if you are not able to find others like you to group together with for safety, it will not matter how much stuff you have.   The pack I setup will easily allow you to stay self sufficient for 30 days or possibly 60 days... and that should be sufficient time for you to get where you need or find others to hook up with.

 

on Sep 02, 2013

I think Step #1 in ANY survival plan is... keep away from nutters....

on Sep 02, 2013

Alstein

The talk of a government collapse or debts being called in triggering this event is silly talk.

When you have a fiat currency, you can print money to pay bills, and you can also default if you wish as well.

 

There's a reason Greece became a complete basketcase and Iceland is recovering despite having worse fundamentals.

 

 


Printing money and defaulting would be unwise. Doing either will have consequences. Printing money would lead to inflation (meaning that the price of goods will rise, and money unspent will quickly lose value). I'm unsure what will defaulting the US economy will do (I'm currently looking into that), but some of the stuff I've read strongly suggests that it will reduce faith in the US economy and cause interest rates to rise world wide (the US currency is considered safe and reliable, so the US defaulting will undermine that faith).

While either might fix the mentioned economic problem, one might question is the medicine worse than the disease.

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