Based on electoral politics and some analysis here is how the campaign is shaping up. First, Kerry is going to win New Hampshire by a large margin.

New Hampshire primary prediction based on local demographics, polling, and momentum:

• Kerry: 39%
• Dean: 25%
• Edwards: 13%
• Clark: 6%

Which brings us to our second point: it's all over for Lieberman.  It's also over for Clark. Lieberman will end his campaign after New Hampshire. It's also over for Clark. Edwards will be in a very difficult position. New Hampshire isn't winner take all but like Iowa, the candidate must get 15% of the state-wide vote to be viable.

We don't think Edwards is going to get 15% of the state-wide vote.  This is what makes things hard to predict. You see, New Hampshire voters are much more aware of how their primary system works than the average person (naturally). So many who are watching this may switch from Edwards or Clark to someone else since they're not likely to win any delegates.  This is what we predicted in Iowa which is why we predicted (correctly) that Kerry and Edwards would split the non-viable candidate votes.  Dean has the highest opposition rating of the major candidates on the Democratic side (i.e. people who don't support him tend to really not support him).

There are 27 delegates up for grabs in New Hampshire. 22 of them are based on the vote but you must get at least 15% of the vote.  So only Kerry and Dean will pick up delegates. 5 of the 27 are not up for grabs but are "un-pledged".

Where things get really difficult is in predicting the actual number of delegates (of the 22) each will get. 14 of them come from 14 districts in New Hampshire. We won't even try that since it would be just a guess.

But bottom line is that Kerry will pick up another big win.  That will lead to answering one of the great questions in in politics: Money vs. Momentum.  Kerry's campaign has hardly any money.  Dean, by contrast, has tens of millions of dollars. Many people (incorrectly in our opinion) believe that money is the primary factor for winning.  Now we'll be able to see it put to the test.  After New Hampshire, things start to move quickly. Kerry can't just go from state to state now and campaign like he did in Iowa and New Hampshire.  On the other hand, Dean has used his millions in contributions to set up a sophisticated campaign network in the states. 

Bush lost in New Hampshire in 2000 but because of his overwhelming financial advantage he was able to win in the other states due to brute force organization.  This isn't quite the same case because Bush was also the favored front runner nation-wide too. By contrast, Kerry was practically counted out and now has serious momentum behind him. Can Dean still win thanks to his financial advantage? That will be very exciting to find out.