Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Published on September 3, 2005 By Draginol In Politics


Source

The people who blame global warming on CO2 emissions have a lot in common with the people who claim that intelligent design is a "theory". Which is ironic since they politically disagree on almost everything else.

Whenever I get into a discussion on global warming with someone in person, they are almost always, universally, completely devoid of first-hand knowledge on global climate history, other factors that can cause the warming and cooling of the earth.  They often sound, remarkably, like the people who come to my door trying to "save" me.  They refer to various unnamed "scientists" and "experts" who have told them what to think and therefore believe it. 

I can be talked into believing that the Earth's temperature has risen in the past several decades. But I am not convinced that it has anything to do with CO2 emissions.  There's very little evidence that the earth's atmosphere has warmed any measurable amount globally.  But surface temperatures are a different thing.  Urban sprawl and humans covering increasing percentages of the earth's surface with cement and other heat-sink materials could certainly create local increases in temperature.  Go into a city in the summer and you can definitely feel it. 

Incidentally, I'm not arguing that human habitation of the surface is causing global warming either.  I am saying that there may be other explanations to it -- if it's happening.  We are, btw, in an inter-glacial period.  That is, we are actually currently in an ice age. The earth is currently cooler than it has typically been when looking at the earth historically over the past 100 million years.

We simply don't know very much on global climate yet.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't try to decrease our impact on the environment. We should try to cut down all our impacts whether that be CO2 emissions, sulfur emissions, CFCs, etc.  But we shouldn't do it because of global warming.  We should do it because we simply don't know what impact it will have on the environment.


Comments (Page 2)
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on Sep 04, 2005

Is anyone here a meteorologist or environmental scientist? If not, then your opinion on global warming doesn't matter and you SHOULD listen to the experts. I don't claim to know anything about how to write programs that skin windows, yet the people who do would have us believe they're environmental scientists too.

No disrespect intended, Brad, but neither you nor I have the education to be forming scientific opinions about Global Warming. However, those who ARE environmental scientists, meteorologists, etc, do almost to a person believe Global Warming is the result of man's activities in this case. Where are your credentials to credibly disupte that?

And despite the media hype, there is no consensus that CO2 emmissions by humans have any effect on global warming. 

The difference between me and some others I guess is that I listen to the experts and look at what they are specifically saying and other people read articles written by non-experts who are trying to interpret what they think the experts do (or should) be saying.

I'm not a historian either but I have a pretty good idea of many historical events and am happy to talk about them. I'm not a biologist or anthropologist but I can still freely discuss evolution vs. "intelligent design". 

One has to wonder what the motivation of someone is to tell someone else that they should (Essentially) "shut up" because they don't like what that person is saying.

I, just like anyone else, can read the data that has been put together by "the experts" and interpret them.  I prefer my own interpretations because I know my own biases and know what data was used to form my opinions to that of various media pundits who have unknowable agendas.

on Sep 04, 2005
The difference between me and some others I guess is that I listen to the experts and look at what they are specifically saying .........


As do I

.... and other people read articles written by non-experts who are trying to interpret what they think the experts do (or should) be saying.


Rather presumptious of you, don't you think. I also read from the expert's discussions. It's my job. Funny how we glean different conclusions from the same reports.

I prefer my own interpretations because I know my own biases and know what data was used to form my opinions to that of various media pundits who have unknowable agendas.


And, I prefer the interpretations of the scientists who are the experts in their field.
on Sep 04, 2005
Moveon.org and Michael Moore are not experts.
on Sep 04, 2005
ID, you really are a piece of work.
on Sep 04, 2005
Please Draginol,

there's a remarkable consensus on global warming.

Here's what the UN says in their latest climate change report ...

The head of the United Nations Environment Programme, Dr Klaus Toepfer, said: "The scientific consensus presented in this comprehensive report [the IPCC report] about human-induced climate change should sound alarm bells in every national capital and in every local community."

The report further notes that ...

"The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. The rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years."

Then we've got the 3,000 U.S. scientists who in the late 1990's released the Scientists' Statement on Global Climatic Disruption, an unprecedented statement urging the United States to lead in the efforts to stop global warming.

And then there's the 1,500 scientists a couple of years after that who released the "World Scientists' Call for Action," urging government leaders to act immediately to prevent global warming. This statement included 110 Nobel laureates and 60 U.S. National Medal of Science winners.

Then the 35,000 members of the American Geophysical Union release a position paper on Climate Change and Greenhouse Gases asserting that the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases are cause for legitimate public concern.

NASA has also noted that global warming appears to be real, and is a cause for concern.

These are all major, credible and serious sources - BUT if one doesn't WANT to believe global warming is real, then one WON'T.

Again, my beef is that those who "don't believe" offer up nothing really - if an opinion is outside of the informed mainstream, then you need something more than "by goshes and by gollies". I take issue with those who don't think it's real - effectively disputing thousands of experts, and offer up no legitimate research. Anyone who knows anything about global warming knows that, in the serious scientific community, there's very little debate it's here now, and occuring (see citatiions above).

Please don't expect us to park our brains at the door, because Oz says there's no consensus.
on Sep 04, 2005
Ah well worst-case scenario would be my inland south Florida home could soon be oceanfront property. Were not going to be able to do much about it. The US and other counties are going to burn fossil fuels until we run out or they become to expensive. They’re many other man made pollutants far more dangerous than CO2 and other greenhouse gasses that we need to focus on. I don’t have a problem though with the eco nuts that warn us at the top of their lungs that were killing the planet. Whatever our reason it’s a finite resource that we need to wean ourselves of. That will save us a lot of economic pain in the future. I paid $3.15 for gas today and that’s what has got everyone talking hybrids now.

There’s a lengthy but interesting discussion on the Space.com forum. Link

on Sep 04, 2005

"The present CO2 concentration has not been exceeded during the past 420,000 years and likely not during the past 20 million years. The rate of increase is unprecedented during at least the past 20,000 years."

Similarly, the # of pirates has never been as low as it is today either.  That doesn't mean that it is a significant cause of global warming. 

I am not arguing that global warming isn't happening.  I am not certain it is but I am not saying it isn't.  I am, however, saying that people who believe it is due primarily to CO2 in the atmosphere are saying so on very very weak scientific grounds IMO.

There are a LOT of other things humans DO that could affect global temperatures (not the least being massive deforestation and increasing %'s of the planet being covered in human created heat sinks - urban sprawl for instance).

Our understanding of global climate is still in its infancy. And I strongly believe that governments should strive to decrease the impact humans have on the environment even if I'm not convinced that human CO2 emmissions are significantly affecting the climate. When they can put together a climate model that can predict the past 100 year temperatures, then we might be ready to start making bold prouncements of definitive causes of temperature.

on Sep 05, 2005
There is a great deal of evidence. It’s the interpretation of that evidence that’s so complex. It involves half a dozen specific fields and the most complex computer models ever created but at least it can be studied using the scientific methods unlike ID. The consensus is growing stronger. Link

Besides Global Warming is clearly related to the increasing price of coffee.




on Sep 05, 2005
Funny how we glean different conclusions from the same reports.
---dabe

Which, like so many other issues, depends upon your social or political views.
on Sep 06, 2005
ID, you really are a piece of work.


As are you dabe!


Most scientific papers are probably wrong
02:00 30 August 2005
NewScientist.com news service
Kurt Kleiner

Public Library of Science Medicine
Most published scientific research papers are wrong, according to a new analysis. Assuming that the new paper is itself correct, problems with experimental and statistical methods mean that there is less than a 50% chance that the results of any randomly chosen scientific paper are true.

John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist at the University of Ioannina School of Medicine in Greece, says that small sample sizes, poor study design, researcher bias, and selective reporting and other problems combine to make most research findings false. But even large, well-designed studies are not always right, meaning that scientists and the public have to be wary of reported findings.

"We should accept that most research findings will be refuted. Some will be replicated and validated. The replication process is more important than the first discovery," Ioannidis says.

In the paper, Ioannidis does not show that any particular findings are false. Instead, he shows statistically how the many obstacles to getting research findings right combine to make most published research wrong.

Massaged conclusions
Traditionally a study is said to be "statistically significant" if the odds are only 1 in 20 that the result could be pure chance. But in a complicated field where there are many potential hypotheses to sift through - such as whether a particular gene influences a particular disease - it is easy to reach false conclusions using this standard. If you test 20 false hypotheses, one of them is likely to show up as true, on average.

Odds get even worse for studies that are too small, studies that find small effects (for example, a drug that works for only 10% of patients), or studies where the protocol and endpoints are poorly defined, allowing researchers to massage their conclusions after the fact.

Surprisingly, Ioannidis says another predictor of false findings is if a field is "hot", with many teams feeling pressure to beat the others to statistically significant findings.

But Solomon Snyder, senior editor at the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and a neuroscientist at Johns Hopkins Medical School in Baltimore, US, says most working scientists understand the limitations of published research.

"When I read the literature, I'm not reading it to find proof like a textbook. I'm reading to get ideas. So even if something is wrong with the paper, if they have the kernel of a novel idea, that's something to think about," he says.

Journal reference: Public Library of Science Medicine (DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.0020124)
on Sep 06, 2005
Which, like so many other issues, depends upon your social or political views.


there is definitely some truth to that. I choose to accept the findings of the vast majority of scientists who warn of global warming. It seems that a vast majority of republicans buy into the admin's denials and report fixings in order to not have to deal with the problem and spend the money it takes to address the issue today. Unfortunately, money that is not spent today will be spent one hundred fold in the future to mitigate the impacts, if in fact they can be mitigated. That is shortsightedness, and it's how this dubya regime does business.
on Sep 06, 2005
It seems that a vast majority of republicans buy into the admin's denials and report fixings


Based on the findings of untold numbers of scientists who don't look at the data the same way as the hysterical, enviro whacko scientists your side believes.
There is no "vast majority of scientists" on either side, dabe. For every one of your hysterics, there's one or two on our side who can find a natural explanation and/or refutation of the whole theory.
Stop believing your own propaganda, sweetie......Keanu Reeves, Tim Robbins and Pamela Anderson aren't scientists.
on Sep 06, 2005
Dozens of Asian fishermen and their three vessels are being held hostage in Somalia by pirates who have demanded a $1.5 million ransom, officials said.

Taiwan's Foreign Affairs Ministry has said that the Somali gunmen threatened Friday to start killing one hostage a day if the ransom was not paid within 48 hours. The hostages consist of three Taiwanese captains and 45 crew members from Indonesia, China, the Philippines and Vietnam who have been held near the southern port of Kismayo since Aug. 15.

Link

17 pirates are holding 48 sailors and 3 ships hostage? should we buy warmer jackets?
on Sep 06, 2005
I say we get Bob Dole to come out and say CO2 emissions cause ED. The streets would be flooded with men on bikes.


But then they'd all get testicular cancer.
on Sep 06, 2005
But then they'd all get testicular cancer.


not if we had every bike seat in america retrofitted with little co2 powered scrotum coolers
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