Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Human causation is not that convincing
Published on May 2, 2007 By Draginol In Politics

The problem with global warming is that environmentalists are trying to act that its cause is a known fact. It is not. 

As a refresher, here is the theory of human induced global warming in short:

The molecule CO2 is a green house gas.  More specifically, when the sun's energy passes through our atmosphere and comes into contact with the carbon atoms, it holds some of that energy. As a result, heat is trapped in the atmosphere which increases the surface temperature of the Earth.

The primary source of energy used by humans involves using carbon-based energy sources.  The worst of these are fossil fuels.  Fossil fuels are so problematic because they represent carbon that was taken out of the atmosphere millions of years ago and stored underground in the form of oil, coal, etc.  When we burn these fuels, the carbon that was trapped is released and combines with O2 to form CO2 and goes back into the atmosphere.

Since 1975, the mean temperature has gone up with the last few years being some of the warmest years on record.  The environmentalist lobby has made a strong case that humans are the cause -- CO2 is higher today than it has been in millions of years, it's a green house gas, and we're tons of it into the atmosphere every day.

The problem with that theory is that it doesn't explain why global temperatures were going down between 1940 and 1975.  To me, it screams weak science.

Correlation doesn't equal causation. CO2 is indeed a greenhouse gas. But we have no understanding yet about how much it really can affect temperatures.  Contrary to what some have claimed, CO2 increases have not preceded increased temperatures. On the contrary -- increased temperatures have led to more CO2 in the atmosphere historically (which isn't surprising). 

CO2 definitely has an affect on temperatures, we just don't know if it's significant or not.  For instance, all bodies of mass have a gravitational pull. You and I exert a gravitational pull (mine seems to increase every year...).  But compared to the Earth, it's insignificant.  CO2 could, in fact, turn out to be much the same thing in terms of temperature change.  Sure, CO2 is a green house gas but the amount in the atmosphere one would need to increase global temperatures could be ridiculously high.

What amazes me is how eagerly people have been to join the Human-induced global warming bandwagon even with the elephant in the room -- the time between 1940 and 1975 when temperatures were decreasing.  To me, that alone should have bred a healthy scientific skepticism in the CO2 theory of global warming.

The weather is getting warmer but we really don't have a clue why yet.  That doesn't mean we shouldn't be trying to find ways to "reduce our footprint".  I support that.  But what I don't support is the vilification of CO2 while forgetting about the dangers of sulfur dioxide, methane, NOx, etc. Watching people support monstrous things like bio-diesel (because it's "carbon neutral") sends shivers up my spine.

I certainly could be in error but I really do think that in a decade or two at most we will discover that CO2 isn't quite the boogeyman we thought it was and that other causes of global warming will be found (or even that mean temperatures start to decrease even as discussed here).

Until some environmentalist can explain why the temperature went down between 1940 and 1975 even has CO2 levels were skyrocketing, I think this talk about "human caused global warming" should show a bit more humility.  Shrillness is no substitute for logic and reason.


Comments (Page 1)
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on May 03, 2007
*sigh* Unfortunately I can't come to a conclusion either way. I think it is possible that global warming could be an issue...however, I've seen nothing to really set that in stone. The earth warms and cools periodically. You can see that with the multiple ice ages we've had. I think global climate change is a more apt term for what's going on...as to whether humans are a direct cause has yet to be seen. I know people are capable of really screwing up an environment...but I'm not sure about the entire globe.

The best course of action is to analyze the evidence that you can get ahold of...listening to modern day hippies that state this as fact is not a good idea, nor is completely denying the possibility. Right now people are just taking stabs in the dark....and I really hate when science and politics collide...seems to happen all the time these days, of course it started a long time ago...but they're so intertwined now.

~Zoo
on May 03, 2007
solar cycles

in the year 2000

we were at solar maximus

and

we were at the peak of a 70 year cycle i don't know the name

and

there is a third cycle i don't know where we are in that cycle

but since we were at the peak or near the peak of two cycles that means lots of extra radiation which means higher temps on earth

and this solar maximus never cycled down and we are now heading for the peak again
on May 03, 2007

The funny thing is that it's not been that long ago that some scientists suggested the way to combat global warming is to *pollute more* -- with pollution that introduces more materials that would darken the sky and help help reflect or keep the sun's heat from passing through the atmosphere.

It would be pretty ironic if we found that the reason we're experiencing global warming now is because of our anti-pollution efforts that started back in the 1970's (efforts to clear the air that helped remove the gray haze from areas like Pittsburgh, and helps to keep the skies around L.A. clearer).

on May 03, 2007

The funny thing is that it's not been that long ago that some scientists suggested the way to combat global warming is to *pollute more*

Yes, I remember.  We were supposed to cover the ice caps with soot to prevent solar radiation.  Or was that global cooling?

What I find most disturbing is the way the proponents of man made global warming seem to vilify their opponents.  No longer is it a matter of rational debate, but one of religious fervor - with those doubting the theory being vilified as Nazis or worse.  Of course no rational debate can ensue when one side refuses to discuss issues and facts, and instead tries to silence the opposition through Orwellian methods.

on May 03, 2007
When people start talking global warming to me now-a-days, I have but one thing to say to them...."Right, tell that to the people in Ohio that got slammed by that "snow" storm in "MID-APRIL"!" You know what? "None" of them has an answer to that.
on May 03, 2007
When people start talking global warming to me now-a-days, I have but one thing to say to them...."Right, tell that to the people in Ohio that got slammed by that "snow" storm in "MID-APRIL"!" You know what? "None" of them has an answer to that.


I'm sure they do. It's the average temperature that's allegedly rising. Global warming isn't a theory attempting to explain freak weather in Ohio; as the name might have suggested it's about global weather patterns. But I can understand how you can get the two mixed up.

What I find most disturbing is the way the proponents of man made global warming seem to vilify their opponents. No longer is it a matter of rational debate, but one of religious fervor - with those doubting the theory being vilified as Nazis or worse. Of course no rational debate can ensue when one side refuses to discuss issues and facts, and instead tries to silence the opposition through Orwellian methods.


Really? You've seen or heard of people disappearing and having cages of rats pushed over their heads for not believing in global warming?

Get real. There really aren't that many global warming freaks who advocate much more than reducing our 'footprint'. And those that are insane aren't listened to by those in positions of authority, so you don't need to fret yet.

Until some environmentalist can explain why the temperature went down between 1940 and 1975 even has CO2 levels were skyrocketing, I think this talk about "human caused global warming" should show a bit more humility. Shrillness is no substitute for logic and reason.


Too right about that. I heard on the radio a week ago that Australia's entire yearly output of greenhouse gases is vastly outweighed by ten or so active volcanoes' yearly production in Indonesia.

We should be cleaning our pollution up, sure - we don't need acid rain, toxic soils or deformed children/livestock. But there's no need to get overexcited and start pumping reflective metals/ozone/whatever other crackpot schemes are out there/ into the atmosphere. Nor do we need to cripple our economies to do it. There's a middle path here.
on May 03, 2007
Really? You've seen or heard of people disappearing and having cages of rats pushed over their heads for not believing in global warming?


Yes, haven't you?
on May 03, 2007

Yes, haven't you?


Well one hears rumours of course, but I never thought it was true...

You're full of profoundly enlightening revelations today, Dr Guy!
on May 03, 2007
You're full of profoundly enlightening revelations today, Dr Guy!


You seem to want to pick at the edges of discussion to start a hot debate. Good luck, but I think I will pass on it today.
on May 03, 2007
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_variation#Solar_cycles
Too right about that. I heard on the radio a week ago that Australia's entire yearly output of greenhouse gases is vastly outweighed by ten or so active volcanoes' yearly production in Indonesia.


i have heard that it was one volcano in one day vs humanity in one year

and the question no one seems to be able to answer is

if man is the cause of global warming then why are mars and pluto also warming up
on May 03, 2007
and pluto also warming up


Pluto is just hot over its demotion.   
on May 03, 2007
Pluto is just hot over its demotion.


lol
on May 03, 2007
I think Brad’s being optimistic when he says’s we could know for certain in a decade or two. I think it could be several decades or even a century before we have clear understanding of the causes of climate changes and our role if any in them. It’s that complex.

Until then the only safe measures that can be taken now are to reduce our output. And I think a certain amount of pain at the pump and sacrifice of convenience is necessary to achieve that. Any attempt at counter measures would be foolishly tampering with processes that we know very little about and we have many examples in the past of us making things worse with these ill-conceived attempts
on May 03, 2007
When people start talking global warming to me now-a-days, I have but one thing to say to them...."Right, tell that to the people in Ohio that got slammed by that "snow" storm in "MID-APRIL"!" You know what? "None" of them has an answer to that.


umm, how about the people in TEXAS! (yup, we got 9 inches in the Panhandle on April 13).
on May 03, 2007
I just have to laugh every time I hear one of the global warming freaks in an interview. They inevitably make the statement that the debate regarding the causes of global warming is over, there is no more scientific doubt about it, and all scientists are in agreement on the subject. (I heard all of those in a single interview on the radio just yesterday) With those bald faced lies they immediately lose any shred of credibility they may have started with. I suppose they think if they make that claim enough times the sheep, I mean people, will believe it.

And sadly, that's about the only thing they're right about.
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