Conventional wisdom says that high turn out means victory for Democrats. While it is possible Kerry may win still, I don't think the pollsters have adequately taken into account just how high the turn-out is amongst Bush voters. Today my wife and I voted. And unlike 4 years ago, the lines were long. Not only were they long but looking at the pages of marked off voters, even at 10am this morning, most registered voters on the pages I saw had already voted. Incredible. Never seen anything li...

With the election tomorrow it's time for predictions. Based on using The Political Machine's issue based predictions and looking at polling data and trends, this is what I'm concluding: Kerry victory with 306 electoral votes to Bush's 232.  This is a much clearer victory for Kerry than any of the polls and pundits are showing here. But then again, they don't have The Political Machine. So what do I base this on? The Iraq war isn't a positive for Bush but in fact a negative. ...

FoxNews has just called Ohio to Bush. That essentially means it's over. Bush has won.

The call has been made. Bush has won the election. It was more decisive than anyone would have believed. Bush: 286 Electoral Votes to Kerry's 252. Bush also won 51% of the overall popular vote, a definite majority of the overall vote. What's also significant is that turn out was very high this year. More people voted this year than any previous election by a significant margin (about 115,000,000 votes).  Bush won by almost 4 million votes overall. For those who dislike the Republic...

Controlling land is meaningless but it is still telling the way non city voters tend to vote. Courtesy of USA Today

Where Kerry defeated Bush, so far, watching the veep debate, Cheney is wiping the floor with Edwards. Edwards sounds like he's just a walking talking point droid. Cheney, on the other hand, sounds like a seasoned pro. We'll see how things continue...

Bush 2000/Bush 2004 African-Americans: 8%/11% Whites: 54%/58% Hispanic: 41%/44% Married: 53%/56% Not Married: 38%/40% Union Members: 37%/40% Gays: 25%/23% Gun Owners: 61%/67% Protestants: 63%/59% Jewish: 19%/25% Catholics: 45%/52% Republicans: 91%/93% Democrats: 10%/11% Men: 51%/55% Women: 43%/48% 18-29 year olds: 46%/45% 30-44 year olds: 49%/53% 45-59 year olds: 49%/51% 60+ 47%/54%

Wallstreet Journal read Rob Steele writes some advice for the Demorats on how they can win the next election: Dear Democrats, While you think about how to do better next time, please stay true to your core values and feelings. Don't restrain your anger; part of your problem in this election was that you didn't put it out there enough. If other Americans understood how truly mad you are it would make more of an impression. You need to try harder to make them see that you're smarter a...

Cheney appears to have decidedly beaten Edwards.  Edwards just appeared a little bit out of his depth. I think Edwards could have stood up well against Bush, but Cheney just looked like a seasoned pro. I don't think this will have much affect on the polls though as the veeps just don't make that much of a difference. I think the key sound bites were very much in Cheney's favor -- i.e. the sound bites that will get repeated will show Cheney hammering Edwards and that is where it could ...

Terrorist Osama Bin Laden has ended speculation over whether he is alive or not with his new video that threatens more action against the United States.

So what we can learn from the exit polls? Well we can learn that there is a big difference between the typical Kerry supporter and the typical Bush supporter. It is the stark difference between the two that makes the nation so polarized. Consider these exit poll results: VOTE BY INCOME BUSH KERRY TOTAL 2004 2004 Less Than $50,000 (45%) 44% 55% $50,000 or More (55%) 56% 43% No surprise there.  Middle class ...

Here is a fantastic essay that every left of center person should read (and right of center for that matter). It really crystalizes why millions of people, who might have voted for Kerry (or sat out the election) decided to come out and vote. I have seen many many comments along these lines but few that put it so artfully.

Often times I see people describe those who vocally support tax cuts as being "greedy". But it isn't "greed" that drives that generally IMO. It sure isn't for me. It's about labor. The average tax payer works 10 to 12 hours per week for the government. That's quite a bit of "community service". But here's a fact that most people don't realize: Most people who are "rich" work a lot more hours per week - hence work even more hours for the government. A lot of people who are considered "wealthy"...

The mainstream media still hasn't figured out why Kerry lost the election. Instead, they react in shock and surprise at the exit poll result that "moral values" was the #1 issue. And what do they conclude? That the anti-gay marriage issue and evangelical Christian vote is what caused that.  Let's ignore the fact that moral values was the #1 reason for Bush voters in states where gay marriage wasn't an issue. Why then are they latching on to that? Because Kerry supporters don't want to a...

Here's an interesting view point from a well known Democrat: Born again Christians shouldn't get to vote: Following University President Don Randel’s warm introduction, the famed author, host, and wry wit of A Prairie Home Companion, started by commenting on election results. “I am a Democrat—it’s no secret. I am a museum-quality Democrat,” Keillor said. “Last night I spent my time crouched in a fetal position, rolling around and moaning in the dark.” Not one to shy away from speak...