Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Global warming moving from theory to fact
Published on August 25, 2004 By Draginol In Politics

The CO2 level in the atmosphere is now 372 parts per million.  Before the industrial revolution, which began the widespread use of fossil fuels (coal and oil mainly), that number was only 227 parts per million. That's a 30% increase.

CO2 is a green house gas.  It is not a pollutant. When you burn something, anything, your best case scenario for non-pollution end result is water and carbon dioxide.  There's no magic bullet to solving that as long as are relying on energy sources in which burning them is how we release the stored energy. But pollutant or not, CO2 is a green house gas.

The problem with green house gases is that they trap eat.  The suns rays hit the earth and that energy is converted to heat. Much of that heat is returned out into space.  But CO2 and other green house gasses keep that heat in place.

The result is that this has probably contributed to the Earth having grown warmer in the past century and it is likely to continue to get warmer. The problem environmentalists face is that they have a very poor track record when it comes to being correct in their predictions of doom.  During the 80s there was talk of global cooling.  In the 70s there was talk of running out of metals ranging from copper to tin by the year 2000.  In the 60s we were told how DDT was going to wipe out all the birds (subsequent research has made the DDT claims look pretty iffy).  In short, the environmental movement looks a bit like the boy who cried wolf.

What also hurts is that no one is willing to step up and propose realistic alternative energy sources. If global warming is a serious problem, then serious solutions need to be proposed.  Wind and solar power are not serious solutions.  At best, they could make up a couple percent of our energy needs today let alone what we'll need in 20 years and that's only if we went crazy with it.

Fuel cells aren't the full answer either because fuel cells only store energy. They're not energy sources. That energy has to come from somewhere. You can't just scoop up some hydrogen and put it into a box.  It takes a lot of energy to power hydrogen fuel cells. 

As a practical matter, if we want to solve global warming, we have to go with nuclear power.  There's simply no other way, any time soon, to provide an energy source that is even remotely adequate.  The problem with nuclear power are the waste products. If you think some CO2 is bad, what do you think of nuclear waste?

Unfortunately, there's no political solution to this.  The Kyoto accords were a joke. By mid century, China will likely be putting more CO2 in the atmosphere than the rest of the world combined and it would have been excused by the Kyoto accords.  India was also excluded along with many other "developing" nations.  The Kyoto accords weren't a serious attempt to stop global warming, it was the result of politicians looking for ways to score points with their constituents. 

If you accept that we need to bring our CO2 levels under control, then conservation isn't going to do it. Not by a long shot. Once the developing world starts using the same per capita energy as say France, no amount of conservation is going to do the trick. We have to make a fundamental shift from fossil fuels and we have to do that at the same time as we put an end to deforestation. Or we will have to find a technological solution to start removing massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere.  But I don't see any solutions even remotely on the table at this time that are serious.

They say a frog put into water will let itself be boiled to death if you turn up the heat on it gradually. Hopefully humans are a bit smarter than that.  I'm not convinced that global warming is a "bad" thing. And I'm not convinced that CO2 is even a significant cause of it. But I think that there are plenty of other reasons to try to migrate away from fossil fuels. 


Comments (Page 2)
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on Aug 28, 2004
Cliche or not, it's really hard to ignore the mess we're making of things.

One practically has to shut off contact with all forms of news to be able to effectively ignore it. Ignorance is bliss, so they say. I often wonder how people can pretend things aren't pretty f***ed up. I find that quite interesting and would like to see the some science on how people can manage to ignore that. Anyway a couple of your statements aren't factually correct. Well, whatever ... I ain't going to get into some contest of whether things look very good on the prognosis of humankind not f***ing up the planet to a point where it becomes questionable as to whether it can support the 10-15 Billion or so that the population will top out at.

Ever heard the head of science over at Sun talk about the future? - now that's one scary "environmentalist". I call the guy "Bill Joyless" (his name is Bill Joy). Whatever BakerStreet. I don't really care that you think everythings okey, dokey. That's more 1950s than what you purport were cliches then.

JW


on Aug 28, 2004
Bill Joy (co-founder Sun Microsystems, Chief Scientist [until he recently quit the post])

"Our problem is no longer "going faster," getting to the future as fast as possible, but rather dealing with limits - limiting our own greed to avoid disaster in the environment and limiting what rogue individuals and states can do. Market mechanisms don't address these problems. Things that aren't accounted for in the cost equations - especially catastrophic events, the value of our survival - don't get dealt with."


interview with Bill Joy continues ...

Q: Meanwhile the markets continue to pour money into the fields that worry you - genomics, nanotechnology, and robotics.
A: Because they don't have to pay the bill.

Q: You mean the damages if something goes wrong?
A: Right. But I'm afraid we're not going to have this discussion until there's a really big accident, and maybe not even then. Assuming any of us are still around to have the discussion.

END

It's not just environmentalists who worry now. Anyone with half a brain, who reads the news and thinks, *should* be worried. Polyanna's are, of course, excused. Have a nice day ...

JW
on Aug 29, 2004
We is not in trouble yet, but I am worried about ozone layer holes, toxic dump, and deforesting of world.
on Aug 29, 2004
"I don't really care that you think everythings okey, dokey. "


I wouldn't think of shaking your "faith". I think in a system as complex as this Earth, with the small slice of data we have, it takes a lot of faith to believe that you can actually come to a conclusion.

Nothing wrong with believing in a hypothesis. Nothing wrong with trying to prove a hypothesis. But when you assume that your hypothesis is a foregone conclusion, and blindly hold up every disjointed detail you can find as proof, whether you can prove a connection or not, then you are functioning at the same level as Biblical fortunetellers, looking for scripture to match what they see on the news.

I'm not saying you are wrong, and I am not saying you are right. I am saying that the most scientific thing to say at this point is "I don't know", and act accordingly. Clean energy is smart whether environmental doomsday is approaching or not. Radical measures that carry their own dangers, and drastic social change that harms people, though, have to be weighed against what we KNOW, not what we hypothesize.
on Aug 29, 2004
Nothing wrong with believing in a hypothesis. Nothing wrong with trying to prove a hypothesis. But when you assume that your hypothesis is a foregone conclusion, and blindly hold up every disjointed detail you can find as proof, whether you can prove a connection or not, then you are functioning at the same level as Biblical fortunetellers, looking for scripture to match what they see on the news.


But that's not what I'm doing. Off the top of my head, from ordinary reading, let's consider the litany of major global problems that just didn't exist 200 years ago:

1. Global warming (OK there's a few around who don't think it'll be a problem, but most serious scientists do);
2. Ozone layer depletion (that's measureable, with results that are pretty quantifiable);
3. Strip mining of the ocean's major fish resources (measured to be around 20% of what they were 100 years ago);
4. Nuclear warfare - both from sovereign states, and rogue individuals and organizations;
5. Nuclear plant accidents - eg Chernyobl and Three Mile
6. Deforestation to an extreme extent;
7. Toxic wastes of all sorts, eg PCBs, DDT, etc.

and add to that the things that Bill Joy worries about, such as unregulated,

7. Genomics;
8. Nanotechnology; and
9. Robotics (I think Bill Joy estimated that in only 45 years or so, based on Moore's law, that an ordinary computer will have the thinking capacity of a human being - double that 2 years after that, and quadruple it two years later).

Now, if we throw around information that anyone can get his hands on "how to make this or that" through the internet, it's not hard to think that this could reasonably (statistically speaking, there's kooks out there, right?) end in unmitigated diaster for the human race. That doesn't make me a "biblical fortune-teller" - only someone who can read, think, ponder, and offer a reasonably probable - statistically speaking -outcome.

Do you remember the New Jersey high school physics student circa 1978 who published a paper on how to build a nuclear bomb? The kid only had high school physics courses - the government pretty quickly classified his paper. Today, that opportunity to restrict the information is greatly limited with the internet - free flow of information. And we know that many of these nuclear facilities in Russia aren't well guarded.

If one isn't a polyanna, it isn't really that hard to envision this whole thing ending very, very badly, for lots and lots of people. And that doesn't make environmentalists wrong, or the "bad guy" for pointing this out, and trying to get people to think, and act, on these issues.

JW

on Aug 29, 2004
Oops, double-checked my memory via the internet. Turns out the "nuclear kid" was a Princeton junior, and the year was 1977 not 1978 - read the fascinating story here ...

Link

JW
on Aug 29, 2004
If all the fuel alternatives together were seriously enacted, it would go along way in helping out the old globe. And where is the serious commitment to fusion development? I don't understand why you in the end pooh pooh global warming[?]
on Aug 29, 2004
What people don't understand is that regardless of whether or not the amount of CO2 currently in the atmosphere is "acceptable," there is a limit at which catastrophic problems arise. No reasonable person disputes this. Regardless of whether the primary blame lies with deforestation, automobile emmissions, power plants or industry - we are exponentially increasing our production of CO2.

So there is a limit, and we are accelerating towards it. One author describes it as a person falling out of a building. The guy knows there is a limit to how far he will fall, and it will be catastrophic when he hits that limit. He is accelerating as he falls, faster and faster towards the ground. He should be building a parachute and doing everything possible to slow himself or create drag. He should perceive that his current situation is not sustainable. Instead, someone inside the building asks him how he is doing half-way down and he replies, "So far, so good!"
on Aug 29, 2004
I wouldn't think of shaking your "faith". I think in a system as complex as this Earth, with the small slice of data we have, it takes a lot of faith to believe that you can actually come to a conclusion.


I think there are many conclusions one can come to when viewing the system. For example, sol going supernova would not be good for life on earth. It is not biblical belief which leads me to that conclusion, but the scientific method. You can certainly say, "I don't know" when there is insufficient data -- and it is proper to do so. But to say that the system is too complex to ever come to a conclusion is a rejection of the scientific method: Hypothesize, Experiment, Conclude, Repeat.
on Aug 29, 2004
Bill Joy (co-founder Sun Microsystems, Chief Scientist [until he recently quit the post])

"Our problem is no longer "going faster," getting to the future as fast as possible, but rather dealing with limits - limiting our own greed to avoid disaster in the environment and limiting what rogue individuals and states can do. Market mechanisms don't address these problems. Things that aren't accounted for in the cost equations - especially catastrophic events, the value of our survival - don't get dealt with."


I believe economists could be the environmentalists' greatest ally. Economics needs to move from a social science into a true science and the key will be taking a systems approach. Economics needs to observe the full "life cycle" from production to disposal in order to measure the full cost of a product. For example, if cola is sold in a glass bottle which is recycled, the overall cost is lower for one unit's throughput than if cola is sold in a can which is recycled. This is the common practice in Europe. Bill Joy is spot on that market mechanisms do not measure the throughput, but only focus on the production, distribution, and advertising costs. Mr. Joy argues it will take a disaster to get economics to change, but government incentives could spur the necessary conversion in thinking. Europe and Japan are far ahead of us in this line of thinking.
on Aug 29, 2004
jay: As I have said, climate change is something that has occured back and forth, sometimes very quickly, since the beginning. Look at the temperature shift and how far the oceans rose at the end of the last ice age, for example. Some of the other examples are obvious things that are already being addressed, some of the others (Robots?) are kind of out-there. Moore's law won't hold up for another 20 years if the current thinking is correct. Perhaps with new methods and materials, but that wasn't really what Moore was talking about.

REGARDLESS... there's nothing wrong with trying to get people to act. Like I said, clean energy, peace, a healthy environment, no killer robots, all of it is fine with me. You have to weigh the cure with the illness though. In so doing if you overestimate the danger, you settle for more dangerous fixes, and risk harming yourself more with solutions.

on Aug 30, 2004
Just tossing in my two cents...

About a year or so ago on C-Span, on their morning Journal show I listened as Brian Lamb spoke to the Danish Ambassador to the US. The Ambassador told a tale of how when the first oil shortage hit in 1973-74, Denmark was VERY hard hit. They immediately began seeking alternatives. At the time, the only place in the world with any experience in so-called "alternative energy" sources was the U.S. So, his gov't came to the U.S. and learned all they could. They took it home and began building, experimenting, testing, improving. He concluded the story with two points:
1) today the nation considered the world's leading expert in wind energy is Denmark; and
2) today Denmark gets over 30% of its energy needs met by wind energy.
He also noted that they were moving into solar power and ocean current energy, and they hoped that within 20 years would
satisfy over 75% of all their energy needs through "renewable" alternative energy sources.

Yet most times I've seen people suggest wind and/or solar here in the U.S. midwest, and the most common reaction is to dismiss it as wishful thinking and a wasteful dream that will never work...
on Aug 30, 2004
You have to weigh the cure with the illness though. In so doing if you overestimate the danger, you settle for more dangerous fixes, and risk harming yourself more with solutions.


Yes, I've seen some bizarre things proposed to try to ameliorate global warming. One, would be to fertilize the ocean with minute iron filings (they support algae growth), in the hopes of drawing CO2 out of the atmosphere. No one knows what the long-term of that solution would be. That's why I agree with you - I think the lowest tech methods - most common sense should be explored first. "Green" energy, increase fuel efficiency, etc.

As to Robots being "out there" yes, I suppose, but we are getting closer to it than ever before, otherwise someone "in the business" (Joy) wouldn't be so worried about it. It's not really outside the realm of what's conceivably possible in the relatively near term future. Moore's law, despite the current limitations of silicon, will be extended with new discoveries I think.

JW
on Aug 30, 2004
No one knows what the long-term of that solution would be. That's why I agree with you - I think the lowest tech methods - most common sense should be explored first. "Green" energy, increase fuel efficiency, etc.
Right on! Brother.
on Aug 31, 2004
Still not sure why people who are not worried about global warming are so worried about CO2 levels?

There are three effects that CO2 has on the atmosphere

a) Breathing
Heating
c) Ozone damage

a) is the most serious, as we will all drop dead if levels raise too high due to poisoning. In reality though we can burn ALL the coal, oil and gas before this is likely to happen. So this is not a major threat. Possibly a localised threat though is major polluting areas. Higher CO2 levels are good for plants and froests though!

Heating. As many people here disagree that global warming is our fault or even a problem, i can't see them worrying about CO2. CO2 is known to increase heat retention and therefore cause global warming, but so what? Many other greenhouse gases are far better at this. CO2 is not the major player.

c) Ozone damage is indeed a worrying issue, but as said CO2 is NOT the major factor in causing this. Other gases such as CFC's like 1,1,1 trichloroethane (in most fridges) are 34,000 times worse. So worrying about the wrong thing here.

We know from deep core ice samples that CO2 levels are much higher than at any time in the previous 200,000 years. We know from sedimentry rock analysis that CO2 samples are higher than at any time in the past 600 million years (or so). But I haven't yet heard a good reason as to why we are worried. The environment as a whole (including global warming) is an issue or it is not.

Paul.
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