Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Global warming moving from theory to fact
Published on August 25, 2004 By Draginol In Politics

The CO2 level in the atmosphere is now 372 parts per million.  Before the industrial revolution, which began the widespread use of fossil fuels (coal and oil mainly), that number was only 227 parts per million. That's a 30% increase.

CO2 is a green house gas.  It is not a pollutant. When you burn something, anything, your best case scenario for non-pollution end result is water and carbon dioxide.  There's no magic bullet to solving that as long as are relying on energy sources in which burning them is how we release the stored energy. But pollutant or not, CO2 is a green house gas.

The problem with green house gases is that they trap eat.  The suns rays hit the earth and that energy is converted to heat. Much of that heat is returned out into space.  But CO2 and other green house gasses keep that heat in place.

The result is that this has probably contributed to the Earth having grown warmer in the past century and it is likely to continue to get warmer. The problem environmentalists face is that they have a very poor track record when it comes to being correct in their predictions of doom.  During the 80s there was talk of global cooling.  In the 70s there was talk of running out of metals ranging from copper to tin by the year 2000.  In the 60s we were told how DDT was going to wipe out all the birds (subsequent research has made the DDT claims look pretty iffy).  In short, the environmental movement looks a bit like the boy who cried wolf.

What also hurts is that no one is willing to step up and propose realistic alternative energy sources. If global warming is a serious problem, then serious solutions need to be proposed.  Wind and solar power are not serious solutions.  At best, they could make up a couple percent of our energy needs today let alone what we'll need in 20 years and that's only if we went crazy with it.

Fuel cells aren't the full answer either because fuel cells only store energy. They're not energy sources. That energy has to come from somewhere. You can't just scoop up some hydrogen and put it into a box.  It takes a lot of energy to power hydrogen fuel cells. 

As a practical matter, if we want to solve global warming, we have to go with nuclear power.  There's simply no other way, any time soon, to provide an energy source that is even remotely adequate.  The problem with nuclear power are the waste products. If you think some CO2 is bad, what do you think of nuclear waste?

Unfortunately, there's no political solution to this.  The Kyoto accords were a joke. By mid century, China will likely be putting more CO2 in the atmosphere than the rest of the world combined and it would have been excused by the Kyoto accords.  India was also excluded along with many other "developing" nations.  The Kyoto accords weren't a serious attempt to stop global warming, it was the result of politicians looking for ways to score points with their constituents. 

If you accept that we need to bring our CO2 levels under control, then conservation isn't going to do it. Not by a long shot. Once the developing world starts using the same per capita energy as say France, no amount of conservation is going to do the trick. We have to make a fundamental shift from fossil fuels and we have to do that at the same time as we put an end to deforestation. Or we will have to find a technological solution to start removing massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere.  But I don't see any solutions even remotely on the table at this time that are serious.

They say a frog put into water will let itself be boiled to death if you turn up the heat on it gradually. Hopefully humans are a bit smarter than that.  I'm not convinced that global warming is a "bad" thing. And I'm not convinced that CO2 is even a significant cause of it. But I think that there are plenty of other reasons to try to migrate away from fossil fuels. 


Comments (Page 4)
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on Sep 01, 2004

Shadesofgray: Assertion isn't proof.  You didn't answer any of the questions I put forth. You just waved them away.

I'll ask you again:

Have you ever sat down and looked at how much energy it takes to produce a solar cell or windmill? Then, have you looked at how much they generate in Kilojoules? Then have you looked at how much in Terrajoules of energy per hour our country uses? Then calculate how many windmills and solar cells it would take to make up even 1% of that use? Obviously not or else we wouldn't be having this conversation.

As an Electrical Engineer, I do have some understanding of power requirements.  Windmills and solar cells simply don't generate enough power. It's a scaling issue.

Before I get sucked into having to explain this, I'll point to Steven Den Beste's article where he spent some time trying to explain this:

http://denbeste.nu/cd_log_entries/2002/09/Obscureenergysources.shtml

I realize that we all really really want to believe in these things, the problem with wind power and solar panels isn't a matter of will, it's a matter of scale.

on Sep 01, 2004
I'd agree with the author about US reliance on foreign oil (it's not going to be easily reduced) and that alternative power sources aren't a waste of time for anything other than the largest and most crowded of cities.

The argument that only massive sources of power are in any way useful is ludicrous. If the average house can collect enough power through solar cells to be self-sufficient in energy terms for 15 years (a rough shelf-life for some of the cells being developed for power needs in Australia now), and every house in a city uses this as the main power source, the only need for massive sources of power would be for heavily built-up commercial areas and industry, both of which could benefit from more efficient energy use. WIth the increasing energy efficiency of domestic appliances it's entirely possible that many houses would run at a energy surplus, thus providing power to the grid and decreasing reliance on other power sources. In the event of severe cloud cover then back-up plants would have to be run, but nuclear is not the best solution in my mind. A modern coal plant would provide enough power without the risk and without the necessity of either highly trained and expensive technicians or always running at full power. It's pollution output would be similar all up as well to a nuclear plant.

As everyone knows, nuclear power plants are very clean to run, but the ore they require is extremely dirty to mine and dangerous even in its natural form. Uranium mines in Australia frequently are the cause of serious accidents and poisonings, despite a green movement that ensures that safety is world-best-standard. The high cost of radioactive power in both the environmental and practical sense (nuclear plants can't be turned off easily) make then an unnecessary waste of energy.

The other weakness of the article is that it also holds as a given that efficiency for alternative energies is stagnant, whilst ongoing research has shown that this is by no means the case. Solar cells have vastly increased in efficiency over the last 20 years, and wind power continues to grow in viability. It's unreasonable to assume that they will not improve more over time, especially as he/she is willing to speculate on the viability of technologies that haven't even been trialed with much success.
on Sep 01, 2004

I can't speak for the average Australian but I can tell you that the Average American home, which is 2500 square foot, couldn't be powered by solar cells even if the roof was covered and they were in the desert. In addition, I suspect these houses in Australia use natural gas for their stoves and laundry.

Americans like things like air condition, big screen TVs, large refrigerators, dish washers, ovens, micro wave ovens, washer and dryer.  That's not going to be powered by solar cells. Some (much) of it would have to be powered by something like natural gas which is - a fossil fuel.

What I find a bit..frustrating are people who just come in and talk about this in fuzzy issues.  How much power we use isn't an unknown. How much power an average house uses isn't an unknown.  How much power a modern 10x20 rooftop solar cell generates isn't unknown (nor is figuring out how much it would generate if you double its efficiency).

And yet some of you jsut want to throw up your arms and say "Well if we increase efficiency of solar cells than voila!".  This is precisely why advocates of alternative energies don't get taken seriously.  Too often they passionately debate these issues without having even done a slight amount of practical research.

Try this: My house in July averaged using 2.5 Kilowatts of power.  That's not counting the washer and dryer that run on natural gas.  That's 2,500 watts 24/7 (much higher during peek times no doubt).

A top of the line 4'x4' solar panel will generate 80 watts of power.  Figure I can fit 4 of these on my house (they're pretty pricey but hey, no problem). Of course, this is assuming my neighbors don't have a fit about putting these on.  So I'm now getting 320 watts. Which is great! Right? 1/8th of the way there. Right? No, wrong.  Because it's only sunny 1/3rd of the day (it's night for 12 hours and and dusk/dawn for a couple more hours).   Realistically, you should only assume 1/5th of the day of getting sun (assuming you live in a sunny area).  So it' actually 1/8 X 1/5 so it would generate 1/40th of my power.  Of course, bear in mind, I'm still using fossil fuels too - natural gas. This is just taking care of electrical.

So for a lot of effort and making my house's roof look a bit odd, I might, if I'm lucky, during the summer months anyway, be able to get 2% to 3% of my power from solar.

OR

We could try to get nuclear power going again and get 100% from that without any emissions.

I'm not anti-solar. I personally would like a law that required all new homes to have a solar cell on them. Anything is better than nothing and making solar cells acceptable would be a nice start. Even 1% or 2% of power coming from the sun would be nice. But don't kid yourself that we can somehow power our houses with solar cells.

 

on Sep 01, 2004
The guy knows there is a limit to how far he will fall, and it will be catastrophic when he hits that limit. He is accelerating as he falls, faster and faster towards the ground. He should be building a parachute and doing everything possible to slow himself or create drag.


umm, bad analogy. "Building a parachute" in mid fall only works in roadrunner cartoons.
on Sep 01, 2004
I can't speak for the average Australian but I can tell you that the Average American home, which is 2500 square foot, couldn't be powered by solar cells even if the roof was covered and they were in the desert. In addition, I suspect these houses in Australia use natural gas for their stoves and laundry.


Not entirely true, Brad. I live in an area where it is done routinely. Most people, though, if they use solar power are smart enough to supplement it with wind power.

But again, we DO live in the middle of the desert, and although it's practical for us, it is not practical for an urban setting (except as supplemental energy), so your arguments still hold true. Just don't dump the waste here is all I ask...lol
on Sep 01, 2004
I've never heard of laundry stuff powered by natural gas - wonders never cease it seems. But yes, most places use natural gas for stoves and occasionally for heating. But then again most Australian roofs are peaked (thus getting full sun on one side nearly half the day, and full sun on the other the other half) and all new homes, at least in my area, must be built to take advantage of natural heating and sunlight, so usually don't need heating or airconditioning. I understand planning laws are less strict in the US and you have less suitable weather, but that doesn't mean that solar power and wind power cannot be a major source of power elsewhere.

At least you accept though that it's worthwhile reducing fossil fuel power needs wherever possible.
on Sep 03, 2004

Not entirely true, Brad. I live in an area where it is done routinely. Most people, though, if they use solar power are smart enough to supplement it with wind power.

But again, we DO live in the middle of the desert, and although it's practical for us, it is not practical for an urban setting (except as supplemental energy), so your arguments still hold true. Just don't dump the waste here is all I ask...lol

How large are the homes? It all has to do with power consumption. If you can get your average power consumtion to under 1KW then you could potentially do solar power if you live in a very sunny climate.

Like I said, my house averaged 2.5KW of power for the month of July. That's 24/7 btw.  So you'd have to geenrate enough power to provide enough stored power to use when the sun isn't out still.

That's my point. I went through the numbers here for you so please feel free to show me where I went wrong. I'm not against solar power. I think EVERY house, should have at least 1 solar panel on them - anything is better than nothing. But as a viable alternative on a massive scale, I don't see it.

on Sep 24, 2004
Fuel cells aren't the full answer either because fuel cells only store energy. They're not energy sources. That energy has to come from somewhere. You can't just scoop up some hydrogen and put it into a box. It takes a lot of energy to power hydrogen fuel cells


That's an excellent point than many people seem to not understand. Thanks for pointing it out.

The Kyoto accords were a joke


Yes, it was a show-treaty -- an illusion of progress.

Excellent article and excellent responses -- I learned a lot.

on Sep 24, 2004
CO2 in atmosphere on the rise

By: Draginol
Posted: Wednesday, August 25, 2004 on Opinionated Techie
Message Board: Politics
The CO2 level in the atmosphere is now 372 parts per million. Before the industrial revolution, which began the widespread use of fossil fuels (coal and oil mainly), that number was only 227 parts per million. That's a 30% increase.
CO2 is a green house gas. It is not a pollutant. When you burn something, anything, your best case scenario for non-pollution end result is water and carbon dioxide. There's no magic bullet to solving that as long as are relying on energy sources in which burning them is how we release the stored energy. But pollutant or not, CO2 is a green house gas.
The problem with green house gases is that they trap eat. The suns rays hit the earth and that energy is converted to heat. Much of that heat is returned out into space. But CO2 and other green house gasses keep that heat in place.
The result is that this has probably contributed to the Earth having grown warmer in the past century and it is likely to continue to get warmer. The problem environmentalists face is that they have a very poor track record when it comes to being correct in their predictions of doom. During the 80s there was talk of global cooling. In the 70s there was talk of running out of metals ranging from copper to tin by the year 2000. In the 60s we were told how DDT was going to wipe out all the birds (subsequent research has made the DDT claims look pretty iffy). In short, the environmental movement looks a bit like the boy who cried wolf.
What also hurts is that no one is willing to step up and propose realistic alternative energy sources. If global warming is a serious problem, then serious solutions need to be proposed. Wind and solar power are not serious solutions. At best, they could make up a couple percent of our energy needs today let alone what we'll need in 20 years and that's only if we went crazy with it.
Fuel cells aren't the full answer either because fuel cells only store energy. They're not energy sources. That energy has to come from somewhere. You can't just scoop up some hydrogen and put it into a box. It takes a lot of energy to power hydrogen fuel cells.


A little botanical lesson for most people on CO2. *Plants* NEED it to survive! If you do away with CO2 entirely you kill off not only plant life but humanity as well!. Plants take in CO2 and GIVE back O2 (oxygen, needed for us to live.) Also every time you open your mouth to breath or speak aloud, you spew out CO2. You want to help solve the greenhouse effect problem?? Then QUIT CLEAR CUTTING FORESTS!
on Sep 24, 2004
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on Sep 24, 2004

drmiller: That's been one of the points I've made here and elswhere - for all we know, clear cutting forests is a bigger cause for CO2 increasing than any other activity.

But no one wants to blame the developing world. They'd rather blame the United States.

on Sep 24, 2004
CO2 in atmosphere on the rise


Quit talking than.

In fact, don't breathe, you are creating CO2, hehehehe

- GX
"I have no answers to your questions, but I can question your demands." - Motto Inspired by Laibach's WAT
on Sep 25, 2004
If the US wants to argue against the cutting of forests then it needs to link CO2 emissions with forestation to remove said emissions. THis would indeed be a serious debate. I await to see the US put forward such proposals. The biggest problem here is that many small countries with high populations may be unable to plant enough trees. Perhaps they should have to 'rent' trees from countries with trees to spare? All possible solutions.

Paul.
on Sep 25, 2004

Reply #63 By: Solitair - 9/25/2004 4:44:34 AM
If the US wants to argue against the cutting of forests then it needs to link CO2 emissions with forestation to remove said emissions.


We don't need to link spit. Anyone with half a brain knows the link exsists! I mean come on the *Green Peaceniks* have been yelling about it for years. Biggest problem is no one cares. They'd rather blame auto emissions.
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