Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Global warming moving from theory to fact
Published on August 25, 2004 By Draginol In Politics

The CO2 level in the atmosphere is now 372 parts per million.  Before the industrial revolution, which began the widespread use of fossil fuels (coal and oil mainly), that number was only 227 parts per million. That's a 30% increase.

CO2 is a green house gas.  It is not a pollutant. When you burn something, anything, your best case scenario for non-pollution end result is water and carbon dioxide.  There's no magic bullet to solving that as long as are relying on energy sources in which burning them is how we release the stored energy. But pollutant or not, CO2 is a green house gas.

The problem with green house gases is that they trap eat.  The suns rays hit the earth and that energy is converted to heat. Much of that heat is returned out into space.  But CO2 and other green house gasses keep that heat in place.

The result is that this has probably contributed to the Earth having grown warmer in the past century and it is likely to continue to get warmer. The problem environmentalists face is that they have a very poor track record when it comes to being correct in their predictions of doom.  During the 80s there was talk of global cooling.  In the 70s there was talk of running out of metals ranging from copper to tin by the year 2000.  In the 60s we were told how DDT was going to wipe out all the birds (subsequent research has made the DDT claims look pretty iffy).  In short, the environmental movement looks a bit like the boy who cried wolf.

What also hurts is that no one is willing to step up and propose realistic alternative energy sources. If global warming is a serious problem, then serious solutions need to be proposed.  Wind and solar power are not serious solutions.  At best, they could make up a couple percent of our energy needs today let alone what we'll need in 20 years and that's only if we went crazy with it.

Fuel cells aren't the full answer either because fuel cells only store energy. They're not energy sources. That energy has to come from somewhere. You can't just scoop up some hydrogen and put it into a box.  It takes a lot of energy to power hydrogen fuel cells. 

As a practical matter, if we want to solve global warming, we have to go with nuclear power.  There's simply no other way, any time soon, to provide an energy source that is even remotely adequate.  The problem with nuclear power are the waste products. If you think some CO2 is bad, what do you think of nuclear waste?

Unfortunately, there's no political solution to this.  The Kyoto accords were a joke. By mid century, China will likely be putting more CO2 in the atmosphere than the rest of the world combined and it would have been excused by the Kyoto accords.  India was also excluded along with many other "developing" nations.  The Kyoto accords weren't a serious attempt to stop global warming, it was the result of politicians looking for ways to score points with their constituents. 

If you accept that we need to bring our CO2 levels under control, then conservation isn't going to do it. Not by a long shot. Once the developing world starts using the same per capita energy as say France, no amount of conservation is going to do the trick. We have to make a fundamental shift from fossil fuels and we have to do that at the same time as we put an end to deforestation. Or we will have to find a technological solution to start removing massive amounts of CO2 from the atmosphere.  But I don't see any solutions even remotely on the table at this time that are serious.

They say a frog put into water will let itself be boiled to death if you turn up the heat on it gradually. Hopefully humans are a bit smarter than that.  I'm not convinced that global warming is a "bad" thing. And I'm not convinced that CO2 is even a significant cause of it. But I think that there are plenty of other reasons to try to migrate away from fossil fuels. 


Comments (Page 5)
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on Sep 25, 2004
We don't need to link spit. Anyone with half a brain knows the link exsists! I mean come on the *Green Peaceniks* have been yelling about it for years. Biggest problem is no one cares. They'd rather blame auto emissions.


Auto emmisions are part of the problem. We have increased carbon dioxide emmissions, and decreased forests which can take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, leading to a double problme.
on Sep 25, 2004

Reply #65 By: sandy2 - 9/25/2004 2:06:19 PM
We don't need to link spit. Anyone with half a brain knows the link exsists! I mean come on the *Green Peaceniks* have been yelling about it for years. Biggest problem is no one cares. They'd rather blame auto emissions.


Auto emmisions are part of the problem. We have increased carbon dioxide emmissions, and decreased forests which can take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere, leading to a double problme.


I never said auto were not part of the problem, cause they are! But if we had STOPPED the clear cutting the problem would be nowhere near as bad as it is now.
on Sep 26, 2004
drmiller, you misread my comment. I trust this was accidental and not on purpose.

If the US wants to argue against the cutting of forests then it needs to link CO2 emissions with forestation to remove said emissions.


link in this sentence did not mean prove. It meant that the US needs to put forward a coherent policy whereby a country's CO2 emissions are linked (balanced) with the level of forestation in that county and the quantity of CO2 those forest remove. As I commented, this is a serious approach. I'm currently unaware of how the major polluting countries would balance out with this approach, but it would be very interesting to see.

Paul.

on Sep 26, 2004

Reply #67 By: Solitair - 9/26/2004 5:47:16 AM
drmiller, you misread my comment. I trust this was accidental and not on purpose.

If the US wants to argue against the cutting of forests then it needs to link CO2 emissions with forestation to remove said emissions.


link in this sentence did not mean prove. It meant that the US needs to put forward a coherent policy whereby a country's CO2 emissions are linked (balanced) with the level of forestation in that county and the quantity of CO2 those forest remove. As I commented, this is a serious approach. I'm currently unaware of how the major polluting countries would balance out with this approach, but it would be very interesting to see.

Paul.


Your right I misread! I apoligize.
on Sep 26, 2004
drmiller: That's been one of the points I've made here and elswhere - for all we know, clear cutting forests is a bigger cause for CO2 increasing than any other activity.


Brad, understanding the difference between "carbon emissions" and a "carbon sink" is something that you surely know about, right? Clear-cutting has a miniscule effect on "CO2 increasing", compared to buring fossil fuels for our cars, our homes. But here, don't believe me, go check out a respected source, the EPA, resplendant with tables, graphs, charts, etc.: Link

JW

on Sep 26, 2004
dammit bush sucks. he's in an alliance with all these polluters and they are flourishing under his "corporate welfare" programs (that by some mystery manage to end up only in the hands of his campaign supporters).
on Sep 26, 2004

Reply #69 By: Jay Walker - 9/26/2004 12:20:23 PM
drmiller: That's been one of the points I've made here and elswhere - for all we know, clear cutting forests is a bigger cause for CO2 increasing than any other activity.


Brad, understanding the difference between "carbon emissions" and a "carbon sink" is something that you surely know about, right? Clear-cutting has a miniscule effect on "CO2 increasing", compared to buring fossil fuels for our cars, our homes. But here, don't believe me, go check out a respected source, the EPA, resplendant with tables, graphs, charts, etc.: Link

JW


You, my friend need to go *back* and reread your link. Here's some of it:

Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include
water vapor, carbon dioxide (CO2),


Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are
continuously emitted to and removed from the atmosphere by natural processes on Earth.

Carbon Dioxide (CO2). In nature, carbon is
cycled between various atmospheric, oceanic,
land biotic, marine biotic, and mineral
reservoirs. The largest fluxes occur between the
atmosphere and terrestrial biota, and between the
atmosphere and surface water of the oceans. In
the atmosphere, carbon predominantly exists in
its oxidized form as CO2. Atmospheric carbon
dioxide is part of this global carbon cycle, and
therefore its fate is a complex function of
geochemical and biological processes. Carbon
dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere
increased from approximately 280 parts per
million by volume (ppmv) in pre-industrial
times to 367 ppmv in 1999, a 31 percent
increase (IPCC 2001). The IPCC notes that
β€œ[t]his concentration has not been exceeded
during the past 420,000 years, and likely not
during the past 20 million years. The rate of
increase over the past century is unprecedented,
at least during the past 20,000 years.” The IPCC
definitively states that β€œthe present atmospheric
CO2 increase is caused by anthropogenic
emissions of CO2” (IPCC 2001). Forest
clearing, other biomass burning, and some nonenergy
production processes (e.g., cement
production) also emit notable quantities of
carbon dioxide.


According to your own link CO2 is NOT the one to worry about. (see the chart half way down * Table 2: Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Atmospheric Lifetimes (Years) Used in the Inventory* )

on Sep 28, 2004
drmiler,
CO2 is a major cause of worry NOT just because of global warming issues. Low levels of CO2 can kill (as posted in an earlier reply). CO2 however is a major global warming gas, as shown in the numbers in the report.

The report Jay linked clearly shows that the US is producing 5 times more CO2 than it's forests are absorbing. Why should other countries stop cutting down their forests when the US doesn't have enough forests to absorb it's own supply. Why can;t Brasil argue that it can cut it's forest till it only absorbs 1/5 of the CO2 it produces? I'd be fairly happy if the US was proposing that countries had to absorb the quantity of CO2 they produced. Then they could produce as much CO2 as they liked. Doesn't seem to be something the US is considering proposing though.

Paul.
on Sep 28, 2004

Reply #72 By: Solitair - 9/28/2004 3:56:40 AM
drmiler,
CO2 is a major cause of worry NOT just because of global warming issues. Low levels of CO2 can kill (as posted in an earlier reply). CO2 however is a major global warming gas, as shown in the numbers in the report.


While CO2 is a worrisome gas linked to greenhouse effect, I still stick to my guns! It's not themajor cause of worry! Go to
Table 2: Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Atmospheric Lifetimes (Years) Used in the Inventory


see the chart half way down


Link


Look at the reference given! There are gases that are MUCH worse! And BTW the link leads to the EPA which should know better than anyone what's bad and what's not!
on Sep 29, 2004
As a scientist who often has to deal with enviromental health regulation on emissions (I personally use R134a, R143a, and SF6), I agree that there are many worse gases. You are totally correct in this. Indeed I made this statement myself before.

If someone is talking about greenhouse potential though, the huge quantity of CO2 released swamps all other gas contributions. Table 5 shows the actual effect these gases have and CO2 swamps all others in terms of green house potential, total effect, and quantity.

Paul.

on Oct 28, 2004
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on Oct 28, 2004
Solar power in particular is rapidly improving in efficiency.


Actually I saw a program on the science channel that said solar power advances in the last 3 years have pushed them into the realm of serious alternative energy sources. Previously they were too costly to manufacture and the watts per square inch rating was too low. Now they can produce more energy in a more compact cell at a lower mfg cost. The three American companies that manufacture the majority of the cells, have kept the supply artifically low here, by exporting their products to Europe and Asia where the demand for them has driven prices through the roof. It's an industry on the verge of explosion. Once Americans figure out that can reduce their reliance on gas and utility company provided electricity by as much as 85% the demand here sky rocket. The next stock market bubble is on the horizon. Of course it won't happen with an oil man in the Whitehouse, but it'll be soon enough.
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