And so it comes down to the final stretch. And as we predicted last summer, Ohio is going to be the key state. Both campaigns know it.

If the election were held today, Bush would probably win -- but barely. But there's still more debates on the way with the Vice Presidential debate this week.  Debates can't change the course of a race unless it's fairly close -- like it currently is.

Debates are more than about getting swing voters to vote for you.  Kerry's victory in the first debate was key for him.  It was key not because he needed to swing people to his side as much as he needed to reinvigorate his base.  Remember, if his side starts to believe he's going to lose anyway, then a protest vote for Nader starts to look compelling.

For Bush, losing in the debate doesn't hurt him with his base as much as it undermines the Republican charge that Kerry isn't fit to lead. Clearly Kerry is capable of leading the country.  Now the Republicans have to focus on policy differences between Kerry and Bush. 

Kerry should focus on health care and outsourcing of jobs. But he must switch from platitudes to specifics. What specifically can Kerry do about outsourcing and healthcare? It's not just enough to say "I won't reward companies for outsourcing jobs." How does the government reward them? What would he stop? Similarly, Kerry needs to have a realistic plan on health care. People are looking for specifics at this point.

Bush, by contrast, needs to highlight what they have done already on health care. He also needs to explain the private health care accounts concept. I think the "ownership" society concept has appeal if he can get into the specifics of what that means.  Politicians don't seem to yet realize that the health care issue is more than just posturing now. I had a friend who was laid off a few weeks ago and in that time managed to severely break his foot. As a result, he could be looking at $15,000 in bills from it.  It's not like the "good old days" where only the rarest, most extreme illnesses could break you, now it's something as basic breaking a bone.  That also means Bush needs to explain why everything costs so much more and what he would do to stop that trend.

Because Bush lost the first debate so dramatically, the second debate is likely to have higher than expected viewer ship. That will mean Bush will need to ensure he doesn't come across as peevish. Kerry, similarly, only needs to sound reassuring and put forth positions that resonate with voters in a way they understand.

Ohio is the key state this time.  If you're watching the election night outcome and Ohio goes for Kerry, you can go to bed. It's over.  For Democrats, if Kerry loses Ohio it's probably over for him too (and if he loses Pennsylvania - another key state - then it's definitely over).

Barring a major event, it's going to be a nail biter now. Bush could have put it away in the first debate but blew it.  These two debates could give Kerry the overall edge but it's unlikely now that Bush will be able to regain the momentum he had before the debate.