Record Turn-Out helps Republicans too...

The turn out myth

Published on November 2, 2004 By Draginol In Politics

Conventional wisdom says that high turn out means victory for Democrats.

While it is possible Kerry may win still, I don't think the pollsters have adequately taken into account just how high the turn-out is amongst Bush voters.

Today my wife and I voted. And unlike 4 years ago, the lines were long. Not only were they long but looking at the pages of marked off voters, even at 10am this morning, most registered voters on the pages I saw had already voted. Incredible. Never seen anything like it. And our precinct is probably 90% Republican.

I did notice one other thing - I didn't see anyone under 30 voting. So the much discussed "youth vote" may not turn out and without that, Bush has an advantage.

Unfortunately, my vote may be countered by someone's pet or a dead person since I live in Michigan where the UAW and MoveOn.org are likely doing some very bad things based on reports.

Comments (Page 1)

Dr Guy

on Nov 02, 2004

Drag,
While this is only anecdotal, what I have been hearing so far is that the traditionally Republican precincts are having heavier than ever turn out, while traditionally democrat ones are slow to normal. This is, as I said, just anecdotal, but it lenes a lot of credance to your point.

d3adz0mbie

on Nov 02, 2004

We can only hope...

Draginol

on Nov 02, 2004

Agreed. Other anedotal evidence I'm hearing is the same deal.

The various polling models assume an unusually high youth turn-out too.

It'll be interesting to see how it turns out.

Grim Xiozan

on Nov 02, 2004

The various polling models assume an unusually high youth turn-out too.

Well, I am 23 and my sister is 18 so I guess that is two youths turning out to vote so far, but the rest of crowd was at least 30 or older when I went.

Voting Fever Plinko!!

Dr Guy

on Nov 02, 2004

Grim, My son is 18 as well, and is voting for the first time. He was going to vote for Kerry, but I thiknk I convinced him to vote Badnarik. I figure if he was going to throw away a vote, it might as well be on the best candidate.

Winterblade

on Nov 02, 2004

That's because, unlike Republicans most democrats have to wait until after work. [ducks]

Surj

on Nov 02, 2004

voted last week, I'm 23. Most of the people I know my age are also voting or have already.

brooklyn_res

on Nov 02, 2004

maybe it's just your neighborhood. mine is full of young people, and there were long, long lines of people under 30 when i went to vote this morning.

Asmodean_dk

on Nov 02, 2004

Unfortunately, my vote may be countered by someone's pet or a dead person since I live in Michigan where the UAW and MoveOn.org are likely doing some very bad things based on reports.

And this is what I don't get. Why is it so hard for America to make a system, where fraud is impossible. As far as I understand, everyone has a social security number. Base the system on that. Ensure that the voter registration form records the social security number, and make people prove that they are indeed that person, when casting the ballot.

Here in Denmark, we get our "voters card" mailed to us in the week prior to the election. Bring the card and you can vote. It's literally that easy.

Morten

apdelong31

on Nov 02, 2004

Make of it what you will, but it sounds to me that those who were guaranteeing a Bush victory are nowhere NEAR as confident as they were before voting even started.

It's like professional athletes guaranteeing a win. Why guarantee that you'll win if you don't know the results?

historyishere

on Nov 02, 2004

Unfortunately, my vote may be countered by someone's pet or a dead person since I live in Michigan where the UAW and MoveOn.org are likely doing some very bad things based on reports.

I guess they are taking the maxim Vote Early and vote often a bit too literally.

messybuu

on Nov 02, 2004

I have a feeling that many of the "Rock the Vote" voters won't be voting. *remembers that episode where Homer was a pothead and was planning to vote on legalizing marijuana*

Myrrander

on Nov 02, 2004

I agree with you Draginol, I don't understand why people automatically assume that a large turnout will favor the Democrats. Republicans are as motivated for President Bush as Democrats are against him -- and I know several people who are going out to vote for Bush in their first election ever (between the ages of 24 and 40 no less).

I'm glad that we are looking at a record turnout, no matter who wins. I like to see my fellow Americans wanting to have their say.

joetheblow

on Nov 03, 2004

I wonder what this means if Bush is the winner?

any changes or the same old same old

and what about this vote turn out? How many more people voted? Who didn't? and is hollywood going to complaint even thought the people who they were suppossed to inspire didn't leave the house for over 12 hours (in some states 16) to go vote.

All I can say is, don't complain if you didn't vote. Don't comlain if you don't write your senator (because you didn't vote)

Who ever wins, I am writing to let them know one thing:
They work for me now. Mooo hahahaha

It ture, what do you think all of this is for?

bakerstreet

on Nov 03, 2004

The ultra-conservative fundamentalists were as motivated this time as the garafalo army. I think one balanced the other. I saw a figure in Ohio that said that "new voters" were up from 9% to 11%. That means all this "get out the vote" crap netted them a whole 2%. As tight as Ohio is, maybe it matters to Kerry if they are all Dems, but I think that 2% is probably as split as the rest.

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