Election 2004 early prediction

Bush wins but close

Published on February 6, 2004 By Draginol In Politics

It's probably a little early but this is my quickie prediction of what the next election will go like barring some unforeseen turn of events. Red are Bush states, blue are Kerry states.

Prediction: Kerry chooses Edwards as his running mate.

Bad idea potential 1: Kerry chooses Gephardt

What Kerry should have done: Kerry should pick Bob Graham of Florida as his VP.

The key states of this election: Florida, Pennsylvania.

Tom Ridge of Pennsylvania gives Bush enough of a chance to win there but this is the one state I am least confident of. If Kerry chooses Graham as his VP choice then Florida could go his way giving him the election but I am thinking he'll choose Edwards.

States that aren't really in play despite pundits claims: Michigan, Illinois.

We'll see. It's going to be very close either way. A lot of states are locked up by both sides right away.

Stay tuned for updates as time goes on to see how things change. 5 states are so close that they could go either way changing the entire election.

Comments

stevendedalus

on Feb 06, 2004

I don't think Ridge has the pulling power in PA as in 2000; I would agree that Graham would put FL in Kerry's hip pocket; but he might be too old--two guys running who have surgery? It depends on whether Kerry wants Ohio and Missouri rather than picking up a couple of questrionable southern states like SC and LA, he will probably opt for Gephardt. I think Kerry has a good chance in AZ.

GemCityJoe

on Feb 06, 2004

You are right, it is a bit too early especially since Kerry may not even get the nomination. Hopefully John Edwards will dethrone him. GCJ

messybuu

on Feb 07, 2004

I think Bush will probably win this election too, but then again, I thought Bush had no chance last election and was quite confident that Gore would win.
I wonder if Florida will be the laughing stock of this election as well.

russellmz2

on Feb 07, 2004

my article with link to electoral map maker. normally i'd give a direct link but i've decided to become a points whore and try and haul myself out of the 30s rank.

hey brad can you copy this thing and add it to the political machine? that would save a lot of paper when trying to figure out "must win" states.

i don't think PA will turn either. it's been fairly solid as a blue state. if the map stays the same as brad has but for PA and the dems pick up one or two tiny states or another big midwest one it'll be game over.

Draginol

on Feb 07, 2004

Russel - we're going to have a DesktopX object that is interactive.

russellmz2

on Feb 07, 2004

neat! thanks.

Jamie Burnside

on Feb 07, 2004

Pretty good predictions. I like how you've kept it close too. I think that it will end up being just as close as you've predicted (if not more so...)

Your map is kind of cute too.

zergimmi

on Feb 08, 2004

Not being a resident of the US I am not generally close enough to get an idea of the real pulse, however I do feel that how Bush plays the WMD question up to the election will decide who wins, having said that if Kerry gets the nod, how he plays this will also be important, and it will be harder for him than Bush as if he gets it wrong he will be seen as anti american, and will loose most of middle America. Running mates, while I think Edwards is a saleable personality, I agree with Brad that Florida is cruical to who wins.

jeblackstar

on Feb 08, 2004

Of course if Kerry chooses Clark that will give him a good deal of pull with Veterans, which could throw Arizona into the uncertain sector. As well, possibly Arkansas.

And though I mostly agree with you that Edwards would be a bad idea as running mate, if he were chosen, it could throw North Carolina and South Carolina into the uncertain category.

There are a good many dynamics which could alter your possibly accurate map. This is of course the difficulty in calling the election nine months before it happens.

Cheers for the thought though Brad. Oh, and I cheer you three times in a different post.

jeblackstar

on Feb 09, 2004

i don't think PA will turn either. it's been fairly solid as a blue state. if the map stays the same as brad has but for PA and the dems pick up one or two tiny states or another big midwest one it'll be game over.

Of course if the map is accurate with the sole exception of PA, the electoral college will be tied and the matter refered to the House of Representatives.

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