Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Useful information for political junkies
Published on April 17, 2005 By Draginol In Politics

It is very common on-line to see people debating passionately about a given topic despite the fact they know next to nothing on the subject they're talking about.  I recently wrote about this issue here.  Passion is good.  Passionate ignorance is not. 

For economic discussions, here are some useful charts, courtesy of the congressional budget office.  They're not "spun". They're just figures that help people know how tax dollars are collected and spent. How they are used, twisted, or manipulated differs from person to person.  But for starters, let's just put them out there so that others can at least have some grounding:

Chart 1: http://www.budget.house.gov/chart0125051.pdf

This chart displays where tax money comes from and what it is spent on.

Chart 2: http://www.budget.house.gov/chart0125052.pdf

This chart is useful for displaying the historical trends on the national debt. How much debt we have compared to our overall economic output.

Chart 3: http://www.budget.house.gov/chart0125058.pdf

This chart shows the growth of different kinds of spending. This is useful in showing that non-defense discretionary spending has been the fastest increasing category.

Chart 4: http://www.budget.house.gov/chart01250512.pdf

This chart displays how many people are working in the United States.

Chart 5: http://www.budget.house.gov/defensegdp030905.pdf

This is national defense spending as a % of GDP

Chart 6: http://www.budget.house.gov/discret2chart030905.pdf

This is how much we have been spending on education at the federal level for the past few years

Chart 7: http://www.budget.house.gov/growth4chrt030905.pdf

This is the unemployment rate over the past 35 years.

Chart 8: http://www.budget.house.gov/incomtax030905.pdf

This chart displays who is paying the taxes. For example, the top .6% income earners pay about 27% of the taxes. The bottom 36% pay less than 5% of the taxes.

Chart 9: http://www.budget.house.gov/lgstdeficits030905.pdf

This chart displays the worst budget deficits since the post-war (world war II) era as a % of GDP.  Reagan has 4 of the top 10. Bush Sr. has 1. Clinton has 2.  Oh, and George W. Bush? Zero of the top 10.

Chart 10: http://www.budget.house.gov/netinterest030905.pdf

This chart displays how much of the budget is consumed paying interest in the debt. In 1996 it reached its peak consuming over 15% of the budget. Last year it was less than half that.

Chart 11: http://www.budget.house.gov/lgcausdeficit030905.pdf

This chart shows what is causing the deficits today.

So there you go.  Next time you get into a debate on taxes, spending, deficits, etc. These charts should be helpful so that you at least have a good idea what the facts are.

 


Comments
on Apr 18, 2005
woot! very helpful. insightful, even.
on Apr 18, 2005
Thank you for the links, they should help clear up a few things, if people will actually look at them.
on Apr 18, 2005
Your first two charts for example do not show a true picture. the first chart is after combining Social security and medicare which BOTH have a surplus of almost 200 Billion. The impact of combining the two is to reduce the actual federal deficit which is reported as 427 Billion. That does not count about 50 Billion not included for the Iraq War and after subtracting the 200 billion in surplus from SS and medicare. the actual deficit in the Federal Budget is $675 billion. The net interest does not count the interest on the debt held by SS and Medicate. the actual interest on the 7.8 Trillion of the debt is more then twice the "net" interest on that chart. The second chart shows only the debt held by the public and excludes another 3 trillion held in the ss and Medicae trust funds.
on Apr 18, 2005

The charts aren't designed to show "truth".  They show facts. How you interpret those facts depends on you. 

Your quibbling is much like the quibbling you do on unemployment stats. This is the way the fed has always treated these same statistics. That you sweat about them when a Republican is president only speaks of your partisanship.

on Apr 18, 2005
Draginol, while I thank you for the time to shed light on a fairly esoteric subject, the pie charts in general leave something to be desired. I understand the urge to put some good numbers forth but the issue of long term viability of the greenback still remains in question.

The debt concerns of 2005 are:
Can the twin deficits -- the federal account deficit and the trade deficit be controlled? There is a tangeble concern that Americans are buying more in goods and services than they produce, and more than they can afford. The government under Bush has done the same, slashing taxes while dramatically increasing spending at the same time. The debt accrued by the public sector is starting to manifest itself in housing sales and into the business sector. Pg 7 lower link.

The chart for displaying the historical trends on the national debt is up for debate. I would contest those numbers.
Link pg 6 pdf format.
Also see National Debt Clock Link

The last chart displayed is inadequate because no reason is given for the "weak economy". The twin deficits? Job Outsourcing? Martians? The chart does not address this in a meaningful way. Here is one of the more reputable guys at Morgan Stanley and a guy I hav e been following for a while Link He goes over the idea of debt acting as brake on the economy. While I am not saying the data you have presented is wrong, it does not conform to any of the material I have been collecting for the last year and a half. .

on Apr 18, 2005
The weak economy's cause was pretty well known.  The tech bubble started it and 9/11 put it into overdrive.
on Apr 18, 2005
See, it's only good news to them if they can show why Bush sucks, when in actuality, they suck!

Next they're going to tell us some crap about how unemployment numbers are scewed because of the number of people no longer on unemployment insurance.

on Apr 20, 2005
falling stockmarket, inflation, high oil prices, Drop in housing starts, higher interest rates, falling retail sales, General Motors loss, sales drop of Ford Motor Company,unchecked currency manipulation by China, unrest in Iraq - Some really great news of late.
on Apr 20, 2005
falling stockmarket, inflation, high oil prices, Drop in housing starts, higher interest rates, falling retail sales, General Motors loss, sales drop of Ford Motor Company,unchecked currency manipulation by China, unrest in Iraq - Some really great news of late



And I'm sure you can somehow blame it all on Bush.
on Apr 20, 2005
falling retail sales


And how do you figure this? Since all the chain stores that the lower and middle class frequent have posted *net* gains for this quarter.

sales drop of Ford Motor Company


More BS! This is from Ford Motor Companies OWN website:


Ford Motor Company (ticker: F, exchange: New York Stock Exchange (.N)) News Release - 1/20/2005


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ford Reports 2004 Net Income of $3.5 Billion, or $1.73 Per Share; Fourth-Quarter Net Income of $104 Million, or 6 Cents Per Share



Full-year and fourth-quarter net income and earnings per share improved from 2003.


Sorry but you can't have a drop in sales while posting an income and earnings per share. Now try again.
on Apr 20, 2005
I'm beginning to think he just makes things up.