Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Draginol's master plan...
Published on October 25, 2006 By Brad Wardell In War on Terror

One of the many reasons I'm not a fan of Bush is that he continually allows his opponents to re-define his own objectives. 

How many times has the "Mission Accomplished" photo-op been thrown back in his face? And yet, what was the mission that was accomplished? Deposing Saddam Hussein.  That was the mission. That was precisely what the war was about - to remove a dictator in a critical part of the world that was an open enemy of the United States. Period.

But now, "success" is being measured as whether we can turn Iraq into some idealized democracy like...um...Germany or Japan or maybe South Korea?  It's worth noting that we still have troops in those countries. We had more troops in Germany 20 years after the end of World War II than we have in Iraq today.

The problem is, there is no way that Iraq will be a "success" by the definitions being generated by Bush's opponents.  If utter placity and a compliant government are the measurments of success, then we lost World War II.

So what should we do in Iraq?

1) AFTER the election we should set up a time table for Iraqi responsibility. This time table would not be connected to US withdrawal (Because I don't expect the US to leave Iraq in the next 40 years). But the time table would indicate that certain domestic security responsibilities would be turned over at that time. The time table would be roughly 18 months.

2) Once the time table was over, the US would start to draw down forces. However, a significant contingent (a couple of divisions) would remain in Iraq but well away from urban areas (preferably in in areas controlled by the Kurds). This troop level would probably be around 35,000 to 50,000 troops in total that would be permanently based there to provide support and as an insurance policy to prevent any terrorist group from being able to set up shop in Iraq.

3) We would make clear what US national interests are. Namely, a peaceful Democratic Iraq is something we'd hope for but is not required. If the Sunnis and Shiites want to kill each other, that's really none of our concern. If Iraq is in a state of quasi-civil war, that is, again, really not our concern as long as we have enough force in place to prevent any terrorist groups from setting up a permanent base of operations (ala the training camps that once existed in Afghanistan as well as a sanctuary for terrorist leaders).

By defining these 3 things, it would also send a clear message to other nations in the region and Europe. Those countries, not the United States, suffer if Iraq is in a civil war. Very little of our oil comes from Iraq (contrary to the "no blood for OIILLL" crowd). We don't need a stable Iraq.  We want a stable Iraq.  Europe, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other countries have a vested interest in a stable Iraq, if they want to help out, they are certainly welcome to. But as long as we are defining success based on the stability of Iraq, they have no incentive to help us. That needs to be changed.

It's worth noting that toppling Saddam's regime was done with fewer than 500 combat deaths. The thousands of American casualties in Iraq since then have been in the name of this new, previously unannounced "mission" of creating a stable and democratic Iraq. 


Comments (Page 2)
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on Oct 26, 2006
The really odd part of the whole situation to me is that we didn't go in with more troops.

I mean, why not? I think a large part of it was the desire of the Neocons to fight the war 'on the cheap' and their deep-seated belief that we weren't going to be there very long anyways.

Many of you may recall that the original plan for Iraq didn't have much to do with 'democracy' at all. The Bush team had intended to set up a sort of benevolent despot/tribal system of government to act as a transition government while they went to go kick the crap out of some other country. That didn't go over too well with the Iraqis, however.

A question to the original poster:
1) AFTER the election we should set up a time table for Iraqi responsibility. This time table would not be connected to US withdrawal (Because I don't expect the US to leave Iraq in the next 40 years). But the time table would indicate that certain domestic security responsibilities would be turned over at that time. The time table would be roughly 18 months.


So, what happens when the Iraqis don't meet the timetable, or even come close? They are light years away from being able to conduct their own security operations.

on Oct 26, 2006

The really odd part of the whole situation to me is that we didn't go in with more troops.

I mean, why not? I think a large part of it was the desire of the Neocons to fight the war 'on the cheap' and their deep-seated belief that we weren't going to be there very long anyways.
Reply By: Cycloptichorn(Anonymous User)

 

this statement wins the award for the dumbest thing the left has ever expounded.

on Oct 26, 2006
Why don't you go ahead and explain why you think that was the dumbest thing the left has ever expounded, please; if you can.
on Oct 26, 2006
I think this Post is significant for proposing a solution to the problem of Iraq rather than brow-beating the obvious - that mistakes in tactics and even strategy have taken place. Some of my own proposals such as involvement of surrounding moderate Arab nations and retention of US military presence confined in the stable areas (Kurdistan) in fact overlap with your ideas. For the rest of my other proposals, I would first have to wrestle as to how to post it safely in a venue as public as JU's.
The moral aspect of our Iraq involvement of course follows Powell's broken pottery dictum (we break it-we own it), but the reality of deep-seated ethnic-cultural differences between the warring Iraqi parties and the US limited resources dictate against this. I say let the civil war play itself out (even if we helped expedite it), and let the main victorious Iraqi players come out in the open. No amount of US conventional intervention will prevent this anyway. The way to Democracy and even relative stability for emerging nations has always been stormy and seemingly open-ended in its various periods of progress . As some veterans of insurgent wars used to say, "You don't pick a fruit that isn't ripe".
on Oct 26, 2006
By defining these 3 things, it would also send a clear message to other nations in the region and Europe. Those countries, not the United States, suffer if Iraq is in a civil war. Very little of our oil comes from Iraq (contrary to the "no blood for OIILLL" crowd). We don't need a stable Iraq. We want a stable Iraq. Europe, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other countries have a vested interest in a stable Iraq, if they want to help out, they are certainly welcome to. But as long as we are defining success based on the stability of Iraq, they have no incentive to help us. That needs to be changed.


One question Brad, with respect: Why should nations such as those in Europe and the Middle East, who do indeed have a vested interest in a stable Iraq, be required to contribute that stability when, in most cases, they did not contribute to the instability in the first place, and many of them also opposed the invasion.

How much instability is required before they would in fact intervene? Given their lack of ability, proven lack of political will, and overwhelming lack of public support, I would think they would not intervene at all.

And, as pointed out, their economies are more reliant on Middle Eastern oil than the US, which begs the question: Since Europe's economy would be at risk, how much damage would or could Europe tolerate before that damage itself harms America's interests. Could America's interests be harmed more by this course of action?

I don't presume to know the way out of this mess, but the USA does not exist in a vacuum, and I'm not sure assuming other nations will take on the same responsibilities the US is itself seeking to abrogate is the wisest course of action.
on Oct 26, 2006
One question Brad, with respect: Why should nations such as those in Europe and the Middle East, who do indeed have a vested interest in a stable Iraq, be required to contribute that stability when, in most cases, they did not contribute to the instability in the first place, and many of them also opposed the invasion.


Be Required? I doubt that is possible. You make a good point. The sad fact is they are basically suicidal by inaction. In 100 years, our children will be asking "daddy, what is france?". To which we can answer, or just tell them it was a fairy tale.
on Oct 26, 2006

Reply By: Cycloptichorn(Anonymous User)Posted: Thursday, October 26, 2006
Why don't you go ahead and explain why you think that was the dumbest thing the left has ever expounded, please; if you can.

While I know this will get an arguement {see I too learn how to make pre-excuses}

The plain truth is, you go to war with what you have, just like we did in WW2, Seasoned ground commaners felt they could slash and run to Bagdad with what they had. The mistake was HOW shortsighted the DOD was and still is far as I am concerned.

To say any President or party was trying to fight a cheap war is dishonering the very first dead man, war is never cheap.

sincerly MM

 

Sgt. U.S.M.C. RETIRED

Vietnam vet just in case you do not know.

on Oct 26, 2006
What scares me most (and many things in the Middle East scare me) is the thought of a pan-Shiite state encompassing both Iran and Iraq...militant...and armed with nuclear weapons.

Turn your eyes to the East of Iraq.



Both Iraq and Iran are predominantly Shi'a. Iran has been accussed of sending men into Iraq. At the very least, Iran supports the insurgents.

By 2007, there will be enormous pressure on President Bush to withdraw our troops from Iraq. Pressure coming from within his party as well as from the Democrats. I sincerely doubt that the situation will have stabilized in Iraq. But even if it has, Iran has the wealth and resources to destabilize any but the strongest government.

Once US troops leave, they will not be coming back. And lets face it, the UN is useless as a peace-keeper. Does anyone really think that Iran will have been disamred by then? Iran has documented ties to terrorists in the Middle East, Hezbollah the most visible. Would other Arab countries oppose a pan-Shiite state? Would Saudi Arabia or Jordan or Syria send troops across their borders to oppose them? If Iran has nuclear weapons by 2007/2008 would the next President favor an invasion?

Think of the wealth of such a nation, with the combined oil reserves of both countries. Think of the power such a nation would wield. Let the Sunnis flee to Syria and let the Kurds destabilize Turkey.

We need a secure Iraq, for strategic reasons.
on Oct 27, 2006
Once the time table was over, the US would start to draw down forces. However, a significant contingent (a couple of divisions) would remain in Iraq but well away from urban areas (preferably in in areas controlled by the Kurds). This troop level would probably be around 35,000 to 50,000 troops in total that would be permanently based there to provide support and as an insurance policy to prevent any terrorist group from being able to set up shop in Iraq.
I doubt Turkey would like this idea unless we guaranteed that the Kurds would not violate the Turkish border but even then it could be messy. Better to deploy them to Kuwait. A rather nice, oblique apology to the left.   

on Oct 27, 2006

Why should we care what Turkey thinks? They haven't been terribly helpful in Iraq.

on Oct 27, 2006
Why should we care what Turkey thinks? They haven't been terribly helpful in Iraq.


Exactly. The Kurds are probably the most useful and faithful allies the US can have in the Middle East beyond Israel; it makes sense to cultivate them in favour of Turkey. Let Europe deal with Turkey.
on Oct 27, 2006

One question Brad, with respect: Why should nations such as those in Europe and the Middle East, who do indeed have a vested interest in a stable Iraq, be required to contribute that stability when, in most cases, they did not contribute to the instability in the first place, and many of them also opposed the invasion.

How much instability is required before they would in fact intervene? Given their lack of ability, proven lack of political will, and overwhelming lack of public support, I would think they would not intervene at all.

That's a good question.  But we don't require them to intervene. I am merely pointing out that an unstable Iraq is more to their detriment than it is to ours.

As for the "contribution" to the instability in the first place, I would argue that it is irrelevant. That requires a moral value judgment at the nation state level which I think gets into a very slippery slope. After all, Iraq was created by European imperialism in the first place.

on Oct 27, 2006

So, what happens when the Iraqis don't meet the timetable, or even come close? They are light years away from being able to conduct their own security operations.

We utilaterally move our troops into bases in remote, fortified regions and proceed to watch Iraq fall into chaos and civil war. We take on the role of Iran and Syria to make sure that no government that is hostile to the United States is allowed to come to power (it doesn't take much to keep things unstable as Iran has demonstrated).

At the end of the day, it is really not our job to make sure Iraq is a stable democracy. It was a mistake for Bush ever to make that a mission goal AFTER the mission was over -- especially since there was little to no preparation for such an extra credit mission.

That we've spent 3 years and a lot of blood and treasure trying to help the Iraqi's has been a heroic and noble effort. But it didn't take Germany or Japan 3 years to get their act together.

What I find baffling and a bit racist is the idea that the Iraqi's are not responsible for putting together a government. That the lack of a stable government in Iraq is OUR responsibility -- our failure which I find to be nonsensical since it requires us to believe that a nation of 20+ million inhabitants doesn't have the competence to put together their own government.

This isn't a country that's beein invaded by a neighor (ala Vietnam or Korea). This is a country that has an armed insurgency like MANY countries in the world (The Philipines, Columbia, and countless others have much larger as a % of the population insurgencies than Iraq has).

If Iraq can't get their act together in another year and a half, I don't think they ever will and at that point it's time for the US to look at the region using narrow self-interest.

The problem with Bush being a Wilsonian is that Bush isn't nearly bright enough for it. He should have stuck with being a Jacksonian.

on Oct 27, 2006
"That's a good question. But we don't require them to intervene. I am merely pointing out that an unstable Iraq is more to their detriment than it is to ours."


I'm not so sure. They have a knack of looking for the people who hate the US the most, and finding markets there. For arms, to buy oil, etc. Granted there is a growing angst around the world for the Middle East, but that isn't going to stop TotalFina from buddying up to whoever comes out on top in Iraq.

That's why they fear a splintered Iraq, frankly. They are desperately afraid that the best oil fields will end up in a US friendly area. That leaves them sending aid and weapons to the rest of Iraq while losing all their pre-counted oil profits from their deal with the devil Hussein.

Like you say, it's their mess to begin with. They screwed Arabia for literally centuries, and they want to pretend that this is the product of a few US dominated decades. Not unlike South East Asia and all the rest of their post-imperialist messes.
on Oct 27, 2006
(From Bakerstreet:)
Like you say, it's their mess to begin with. They screwed Arabia for literally centuries, and they want to pretend that this is the product of a few US dominated decades. Not unlike South East Asia and all the rest of their post-imperialist messes.


If you don't accept the responsibility of the US for the mess after the invasion, there is no base whatsoever to blame other countries for what they did decades to centuries before that.

(from Draginol:)
We utilaterally move our troops into bases in remote, fortified regions and proceed to watch Iraq fall into chaos and civil war. We take on the role of Iran and Syria to make sure that no government that is hostile to the United States is allowed to come to power (it doesn't take much to keep things unstable as Iran has demonstrated).

If it is fine for the Iraques to kill each other then why was Saddam removed in the first place?

I agree that a democratic Iraq is not necessary in the interest of the US, but a stable Iraq is. And Iraq was a lot more stable before the invasion.

I applaud your effort Brad to look beyond the mistakes in the past to a solution for the current mess, but what I'm missing are the (long term) foreign policy goals of the US. What does the US want to achieve? I would imagine that includes:
- keeping the Islamic terrorist threat under control
- keeping the Arab region stable as that keeps the oil supply and thus the world economy and thus the US economy more stable.
- be a loyal ally for those countries which support you need

Letting Iraq fall in ruins will not keep the Islamic threat under control. In fact it will make it totally impossible to act against Iran, which poses by far the biggest threat.
Letting Iraq fall in ruins will not result in a stable Arab region as things can very well get completely out of hand, with Iran and Turkey joining the mess.
By letting Iraq fall in ruins you will even fail your most loyal ally Israel as it will free the hands of its true enemy, Iran. And without any allies in the region how are you going to stop Irans growing influence?

Learn from Israel that you can't control a destabilized area. Terrorist thrive in such areas. They don't need large, organized camps, they need (forced) local support and all you are doing is making sure they'll get it.

If you really want a rigorous solution to the problem, I would start thinking in the lines of separating the ethnical groups in their own provinces. That will be the end result of a civil war any way. The advantage is that you keep a firm control over the outcome and can install proper governments (not necessarily a democratic one;-) ) for each of the three groups.
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