Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Draginol's master plan...
Published on October 25, 2006 By Brad Wardell In War on Terror

One of the many reasons I'm not a fan of Bush is that he continually allows his opponents to re-define his own objectives. 

How many times has the "Mission Accomplished" photo-op been thrown back in his face? And yet, what was the mission that was accomplished? Deposing Saddam Hussein.  That was the mission. That was precisely what the war was about - to remove a dictator in a critical part of the world that was an open enemy of the United States. Period.

But now, "success" is being measured as whether we can turn Iraq into some idealized democracy like...um...Germany or Japan or maybe South Korea?  It's worth noting that we still have troops in those countries. We had more troops in Germany 20 years after the end of World War II than we have in Iraq today.

The problem is, there is no way that Iraq will be a "success" by the definitions being generated by Bush's opponents.  If utter placity and a compliant government are the measurments of success, then we lost World War II.

So what should we do in Iraq?

1) AFTER the election we should set up a time table for Iraqi responsibility. This time table would not be connected to US withdrawal (Because I don't expect the US to leave Iraq in the next 40 years). But the time table would indicate that certain domestic security responsibilities would be turned over at that time. The time table would be roughly 18 months.

2) Once the time table was over, the US would start to draw down forces. However, a significant contingent (a couple of divisions) would remain in Iraq but well away from urban areas (preferably in in areas controlled by the Kurds). This troop level would probably be around 35,000 to 50,000 troops in total that would be permanently based there to provide support and as an insurance policy to prevent any terrorist group from being able to set up shop in Iraq.

3) We would make clear what US national interests are. Namely, a peaceful Democratic Iraq is something we'd hope for but is not required. If the Sunnis and Shiites want to kill each other, that's really none of our concern. If Iraq is in a state of quasi-civil war, that is, again, really not our concern as long as we have enough force in place to prevent any terrorist groups from setting up a permanent base of operations (ala the training camps that once existed in Afghanistan as well as a sanctuary for terrorist leaders).

By defining these 3 things, it would also send a clear message to other nations in the region and Europe. Those countries, not the United States, suffer if Iraq is in a civil war. Very little of our oil comes from Iraq (contrary to the "no blood for OIILLL" crowd). We don't need a stable Iraq.  We want a stable Iraq.  Europe, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and other countries have a vested interest in a stable Iraq, if they want to help out, they are certainly welcome to. But as long as we are defining success based on the stability of Iraq, they have no incentive to help us. That needs to be changed.

It's worth noting that toppling Saddam's regime was done with fewer than 500 combat deaths. The thousands of American casualties in Iraq since then have been in the name of this new, previously unannounced "mission" of creating a stable and democratic Iraq. 


Comments (Page 1)
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on Oct 25, 2006
Do you think that any "time table" should be made available to the public, or something that should be kept "behind" closed doors? I think that some strategies should be made and pushed to the public, but some (more military types) should remain more private.
on Oct 25, 2006
I think at some point after the election if the Iraqi government is failing to live up to the time table that the administration should make it public so that it can be prepared for the contigency that we're throwing up our hands in exasperation.
on Oct 25, 2006
That's really the problem. We're being judged not for what we did, but for what people we have no control over are doing. Worse, if we exert control, it just validates the whole 'puppet regime' talk and gives the 'resistance' and excuse to resist.

The Bush didn't make this situation by invading Iraq. They dug this grave when they made PREDICTIONS about what was going to happen in Iraq. They should have pursued this with the worst case scenario in mind, no the best.

I wonder what would have happened in the US if the international community had decided it was just too skeery for us to have a civil war. How would all the mediation have shortchanged our democracy and imposed standards that weren't ours? Is there a time when things just have to be settle amongst ourselves, regardless of the enevitable violence?

Maybe if civil war is what they want, maybe we should be more in the business of shielding innocent third parties like the Kurds, and dealing with a refugee crisis. Right now instead of dealing with a coming bloodbath, we're pretending that a bloodbath isn't going to happen. I'm afraid that's making the same mistake all over again.
on Oct 26, 2006

Do you think that any "time table" should be made available to the public, or something that should be kept "behind" closed doors?

It would not remain secret long.  The NY Times would publish it within a short period of time.

But I like your plan Brad.  I hope they move to, or are moving to implement it.

on Oct 26, 2006
It would not remain secret long. The NY Times would publish it within a short period of time.
Yeah, I have no doubt about that.
on Oct 26, 2006
If the Mission was to depose Saddam, we should have removed our troops in mid 2003. The issue of also establishing a Stable Democracy is a Bush/Cheney concept that was to set the example for other Moslem countries that are unstable and a potential source of problems.

It is NOT the Presidents opponents that added this second mission (Creating a Stable Democracy). Bush was warned by Powell and others that this was not a likely objective that could be accomplished. Bush is doing just what he and the GOP condemned in the 2000 election-- nation Building.

It is time to turn Iraq over to the Iraqi Government and station our troops in such a way as to prevent any civil war in Iraq from spilling into other Moslem countries with whom we have a working relationship like Saudi Arabia or the other small oil producing states in the region. We can not end the sectarian violence and no matter how long we stay there will be a period of Civil War after we leave Iraq>
on Oct 26, 2006
It is time to turn Iraq over to the Iraqi Government and station our troops in such a way as to prevent any civil war in Iraq from spilling into other Moslem countries with whom we have a working relationship like Saudi Arabia or the other small oil producing states in the region. We can not end the sectarian violence and no matter how long we stay there will be a period of Civil War after we leave Iraq>


Sort of like how we can't get you to shut-up no matter how hard we try?
on Oct 26, 2006
drmiler


The question of this Blog is what should be done about Iraq. I was answering that question. Your problem is all you want to do is Stay the Course just like Bush. Now his SPIN Doctors have changed the words but the end result is the same.
on Oct 26, 2006
The problem is, there is no way that Iraq will be a "success" by the definitions being generated by Bush's opponents. If utter placity and a compliant government are the measurments of success, then we lost World War II.


I really don't know what you're talking about, unless Condoleezza Rice has sold you on the boogeyman of German "Werewolf." (h ttp://www.slate.com/id/2087768/) "Utter placity and a compliant government" is pretty much exactly how I imagine postwar Germany and Japan, although links to the contrary would be interesting.

If the Sunnis and Shiites want to kill each other, that's really none of our concern.


If you made this statement about, say, the Hutus and the Tutsis, I wouldn't have a problem with it. That's their quarrel and no one is obligated to try to solve everyone else's problems. But this is _our_ problem; we destroyed the government and institutions that let them live in peace, and bad as they were, failed to replace them with anything better.

For you not to be concerned about this is like a prison warden opening all the cell doors and going away, saying, "If the Crips and the Bloods want to kill each other, that's really none of my concern." I feel a lot more moral responsibility for Iraq than that.
on Oct 26, 2006
we destroyed the government and institutions that let them live in peace, and bad as they were, failed to replace them with anything better


We removed the man that forced them to live in peace, not the institutions. How long until that would have occurred once Saddam died. The Iraqi government would not have survived a weak leader. My perception is that we only sped up the inevitable.

Someday these opposing sides would have faced off. I don't see how breaking the levee made these groups oppose each other enough to want to kill. It may have been temporarily quelled by the strongman's thumb, but that opposition was never dealt with.
on Oct 26, 2006

If the Mission was to depose Saddam, we should have removed our troops in mid 2003. The issue of also establishing a Stable Democracy is a Bush/Cheney concept that was to set the example for other Moslem countries that are unstable and a potential source of problems.

Sorry, but that's incredibly dumb.

If the mission was to defeat Nazisim and Hitler, we should have removed our troops in mid 1945...

If the mission was to defeat Imperial Japan, we should have removed our troops in late 1945...

 

on Oct 26, 2006

I really don't know what you're talking about, unless Condoleezza Rice has sold you on the boogeyman of German "Werewolf." (h ttp://www.slate.com/id/2087768/) "Utter placity and a compliant government" is pretty much exactly how I imagine postwar Germany and Japan, although links to the contrary would be interesting.

You call Japan and Germany compliant? What's your definition of compliant?

on Oct 26, 2006

If you made this statement about, say, the Hutus and the Tutsis, I wouldn't have a problem with it. That's their quarrel and no one is obligated to try to solve everyone else's problems. But this is _our_ problem; we destroyed the government and institutions that let them live in peace, and bad as they were, failed to replace them with anything better.

For you not to be concerned about this is like a prison warden opening all the cell doors and going away, saying, "If the Crips and the Bloods want to kill each other, that's really none of my concern." I feel a lot more moral responsibility for Iraq than that.

You are working from a moral premise I don't accept.  Our job in Iraq isn't some nebulous "moral" crusade. Our job is to enforce our interests in the region.

To use your warden analogy, if I'm the warden of a prison, the moment that letting the crips and bloods wipe each other is more to my best interest than keeping them locked up I'd not hesitate for a second. I don't look at Iraqi's as children or victims. I look at them as fully thinking, rational adults capable of determing what is in their best interests as well.

on Oct 26, 2006
We should place troops in the Kurdish part of Iraq, then more troops in Kuwait let them kill each other till there are so few left the will be compliant.
on Oct 26, 2006
After Bush made the first mistake by invading Iraq he compounded the problem by not allowing our military leaders to run the war including the occupation. What Bush did is took the lid of the pot by deposing Saddam but did not send anything like the troop levels to prevent both the sectarian violence and the foreign terrorists from setting up shop in Iraq. Now we have the worst of all worlds-- We have an elected government that is moving closer to Iran. We have enabled the factions within Iraq to destabilize the country and finally have provided al Qaeda another country in which they can operate. To assert this has made America Safer is a joke.
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