Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
How many times can a man be wrong, before nobody takes him seriously? The answer my friends...
Published on July 14, 2004 By Draginol In Politics

Nobody wants to admit their side makes mistakes in judgment.  Usually both sides in an argument share some part of the blame. But in my experience, one side usually has more of it shoulder than the other.

In terms of dealing with Iraq, it strikes me that the left has been the most cynical in dealing with the whole Iraq situation.  Some of you probably disagree and are prepared to hit the comment button and paste in Anti-Bush quote #2921 that you found on some website.

So let me put forth my case here and decide for yourself:

In 2000, Russia and France not only weren't interested in "letting the sanctions" do their work, they wanted them lifted.  They wanted Saddam's regime off the hook even though they had kicked the inspectors out in 1998 and were regularly shooting at US and British planes.

But they weren't alone.  The left was making powerful arguments that UN sanctions were killing 72,000 Iraqi children per year! The left was demanding removing the sanctions entirely because of the humanitarian cost.

So there were 3 realistic options:

(a) Keep the sanctions despite Russia and France's desire to lift them and the left's insistence than they were murdering thousands of innocent Iraqi's.

( Lift the sanctions on Iraq leaving Saddam free to do whatever.

(c) Remove Saddam and lift sanctions.

Now, if someone in 2000 said that you could remove Saddam and have a new Iraqi government with no sanctions within a year or so of work many people would have said that's optimistic to the extreme.  And if they said it could be done with fewer than 1,000 coalition and fewer than 15,000 Iraqi civilians killed total in the whole thing then that would have been considered misleading right-wing propaganda.

In fact, if some recall, the left was claiming such an intervention would likely cause half a MILLION Iraqi civilian casualties (I've got dozens of links from the time claiming the same thing).

But when the Bush administration started asserting that after 9/11, we needed to remove Saddam (argue WHY Bush wanted Saddam gone elsewhere, let's stick with the facts here) France and Russia started a new thing "Let the sanctions work." Huh? They wanted to lift the sanctions. Oh, I get it, let the sanctions work until the Americans elect a more reasonable President. Gotcha.

The left, meanwhile, argued that going into Iraq would cause half a million civilian casualties (sorry, wanted to use one more of these great links) so we shouldn't go in. Besides, the left argued, containment was good enough.  Containment would do the job. Containment? Wait a second, I thought the sanctions (now called containment) were killing 6,000 babies a month! We were starving the innocents. Now you're okay with this?

Of course, ultimately the US invaded.  And what was learned was shocking. First, it looks like there were no stockpiles of WMD in Iraq. At least, none that we've found. They may have been moved, they may still be hidden, or they may simply not exist.

Secondly, it turned out that France and Russia, you remember them right? The ones who wanted to lift sanctions? Turns out that they had secret agreements with Saddam for massively lucrative oil contracts.  Turned out someone's position about Iraq was about "the oillll". It just wasn't the US.

The third thing we learned is that 6,000 Iraqi babies weren't dying each month. That was just propaganda. Civilian deaths due to the sanctions are still not known but it's likely a figure close to 0.

Fourth, not that it matters given the third thing but it turned out that Saddam was taking that oil for food program and using it as his personal wallet. A billion in cash was found by US soldiers in canisters. Money siphoned off the oil for food program.  Of course, the palaces alone should make it clear to anyone that there was plenty of money available.

Fifth, instead of half a million casualties, there have been fewer than 15,000. Incidentally, I'm trying to use left-wing sites for most of my data, lest I be accused of being biased for the right on this. So I am using data that is intentionally biased the other way. I highly doubt 15,000 Iraqi civilians have been killed but if left-wingers will concede that only 15,000 have perished, that's fine since it's only 3% of the half million estimate they claimed.

And so here we are, in 2004. Iraq has a new government. Relative little damage was done to Iraq in removing Saddam and the sanctions are lifted.  But based on the behavior of the left, it's hard to conclude anything other than that they were pro-Saddam.  They wanted sanctions removed because they claimed 6,000 children died a month on it.  But if the choice was between 6,000 dying per month just from the sanctions (let alone the atrocities Saddam committed himself) or removing sanctions but Saddam had to go they preferred Saddam apparently. Even if the left really believed half a million would die in the invasion and occupation, that's only 7 years of casualties from "containment" of just small children let alone the tens of thousands Saddam was offing each year.

What gives?

So the left has a new strategy it seems, to try to deflect away from their own embarrassing errors, they focus on the one apparent mistake by the Bush administration: No WMD stockpiles found. The left didn't want to do anything constructive about Saddam (other than support him, sometimes outright) but they'll nitpick the WMD stockpiles and try to claim that THAT was why the US went in despite the people who favored going in never having made that a big issue (go ahead, there's plenty of right-wing sites on the net, go look at the articles written in 2002 and see how many even give a rip about WMD stockpiles

Sure, the links between the terrorist organizations and Iraq seem pretty solid according to the bipartisan senate report on the CIA (which slammed the CIA on pretty much everything else). 

And fine, the Kaye report stated found plenty of evidence of WMD programs existed. And that Saddam's strategy was: Wait for France and Russia to get the sanctions lifted and then go whole hog. 

But Bush said Iraq had X tons of mustard gas and you know, that was the real reason we went in.  Right? It has to be right because the left-wingers say it is and it's not like they've been wrong before...

Life rarely works out perfectly. But if events were put into a Choose your own Adventure and we had done what France and Russia wanted and lifted the sanctions on Saddam's Iraq OR we had done the US route which is remove Saddam and lift sanctions, which path do you think, 10 years from now, would yield better results?


Comments (Page 1)
2 Pages1 2 
on Jul 14, 2004
You ask excellent questions.
I recommend that you borrow a copy of Richard Bulter's "Saddam Defiant" for a close look at French/Russian interference, UN multilateral farce etc.
Some down-n-dirty on Scott Ritter too is his transformation era.
So there are some answers about there.
But not in the New York Times, BBC or AL Guardian...
on Jul 14, 2004
The LEFT has been more cynical? Mr. Wolfowitz admitted the administration wanted to invade Iraq and decided that WMDs were "a reason everyone could agree upon." The next thing we heard, Mr. Bush was talking mushroom clouds as smoking guns. This strikes me as somewhat cynical manipulation of opublic opinion, especially as Mr. Rumsfeld (under then-President Reagan) shook Saddam's hand only a few months AFTER Saddam originally gassed the Kurds.

According to Bob Woodward's book, the US needed about the same amount of time to ramp up for Gulf War 2 as we gave Hans Blix before ordering him out of harm's way. Mr. Bush had, of necessity, decided to invade even before Mr. Blix entered Iraq. Again, this seems vaguely cynical.

France's stated reason for voting against war in was that the WMD intelligence reports weren't convincing. Oddly enough, they were right and we were wrong. (Possible secret oil deals are irrelevant - the point is we didn't have sufficient evidence to support immediate invasion conveniently timed for maximum US mid-term election effect.) I have yet to hear anyone from the Right apologize for villainizing the French - or for that matter to stop defaming them.

The Iraqis didn't "kick out the inspectors." The inspectors voluntarily left (admittedly due to increasing levels of non-cooperation after Saddam found out some of the inspectors were also American spies.)

True, the pre-war sanctions weren't hurting Saddam and his buddies much if at all. Iraqi civilians bore most if not all of the punishment. I haven't seen anything anywhere documenting the number of children dying from lack of medicines caused by the sanctions (dual-use, you know.) However, lack of medical care means many children probably died at home. Hard to document such things, especially after a war and subsequent looting destroyed the records.

If the Iraqi army had staged Stalingrad-style defenses of their homeland, 500,000+ civilian casualties would have been either accurate or understated. Just because the Iraqi army ran to fight another day doesn't make "the Left" cynical, it just means we all got lucky - during the invasion phase. After all, if the new "government" doesn't get control soon, or if a three-way civil war breaks out, that casualty estimate may seem optimistic.

Mr. Bush was wrong about the Iraqis giving or planning to give WMDs to terrorists. He was wrong about there even being WMDs in Iraq. He was wrong about the US being greeted by the Iraqis with "flowers." He was wrong to trust his once good buddy (and convicted bank fraud artist) Chalabi so much. He was wrong to think the US could "go it alone." When someone in the Army predicted the war's cost as 100 billion plus, that man was fired even though he was right and the Bush Administration's (public) cost estimates were wrong. Mr. Bush also thought the Afgan war was over - and he was very wrong about that.

We now have a two-front war: Afganistan, where the Taliban have gathered their strength in the mountains again (just as they did against the Soviets) and are now engaged in a bloody war against the regional warlords (again.) This is how the Taliban first came to power - and they seem confident of a second success. Meanwhile, the Iraq War has been Al Qaeda's greatest recruiting poster ever - even better than the sanction-killed Iraqi babies were. Pakistan is now destabilized and if their current "President" dies, his control over Pakistan's nucs probably goes to fundamentalist pro-Al Qaeda mullahs.

You're right, how many times can Bush be wrong before we stop taking him seriously...

on Jul 14, 2004
"He was wrong about the US being greeted by the Iraqis with "flowers." "


The fact remains that the majority of Iraqis have been peacefully going on with their lives.

If all your gloom and doom comes true, how great it will be to have an anti-war, relativist appeaser in the White House. He can let all these theaters of operations go to seed and them blame it on Bush...


P.S. You are still letting these non-registered hacks comment?
on Jul 15, 2004
Brad,
Is this a case of 'I can use quotes to support my arguement, but you can not'?

You start off accusing the left of using anti-Bush quotes, yet you liberally scatter references to quotes throughout your article. Why? What is the point? Why can you use quotes to make your point but anyone who uses quotes to disagree with you is on the left and anti Bush?

Let me respond to your '3 realistic options'

a) What is harder, convince people to fight a war or convince people of the need not to lift sanctions? Action (a) could have been achieved WITH French and Russian support if the US spent a fraction of the effort they spent on option (c)

( A more viable option here would have been to change the focus of the sanctions as the originally sanctions, while now known to have been working, were harming the Iraqi people. Leaving Saddam free was purely politically unacceptable. The US has had not problem in the past in leaving dictators free.

(c) A number of possibilities to achieve this. A number of possible reasons could have been chosen. The US focussed on WMD.

I agree that these are the realistic options, but each option had multiple solutions, not just the single one you paint. As you know I totally supported option (c), despite arguing from before the war on this site that WMD was a crap reason to invade and that the proof was not there. And it WAS the reason being given. We had this debate on this site before the war and we agreed the US and UK governments were focussing on the wrong topic. Indeed we had all sorts of discussions about alterior motives, ranging from Oil to terrorism to stability. But the governments did focus on WMD and nobody, whether left or right, is worng to claim that.

What I don't understand is your continuing attempt to villanise the left. Why do you pick extreme left views and smear them on all opponents of the war?

Did opponents of the war make some hugely exaggered claims? Yes. And whenever those claims were made they were rebuffed and debated. But so did the supporters of the war. And, lets be honest, they won the public debate partly because of some of those claims. As you say in your opening paragraph, both sides made mistakes. So let's stop selectively quoting data at the opponents while banning them quoting any data back.

Paul.
on Jul 15, 2004

there were more than three options, one of which makes considerably more sense than any you've listed--especially if the administration's intent was truly to make america a safer place in which to live--because it would have permitted us to keep our efforts focused on hunting down osama bin laden, mullah omar and the rest of the al-quaida/taliban forces until we destroyed them.

d. we could have acted much less hastily.  

if we'd delayed the invasion of iraq by a year, we might easily have been able to grow a wider coalition. even if that hadn't happened, an extra 12 months might have been enough time for someone in the administration to hear the military professionals whose counsel was largely ignored.  perhaps it would have provided the intelligence agencies enough time to discover just how inaccurate their information really was. sometime during that year, it might have occured to someone in the administration to map out what to do AFTER saddam was removed from power.

however twisted the logic of anyone other than the neo-cons who made regime change in iraq their holy mission (they were nothing if not fervidly dedicated to that accomplishment) the only logical disconnect that counts is that of the president and his advisors.

the world may be a slightly better place without saddam on the loose.  it would be a much safer and better place without bin laden.

how many terrorist alerts will it take before one of them turns out to be true? the answer my friend is living somewhere along the border between pakistan and afghanistan 

on Jul 15, 2004
This article essentially makes these arguments (followed by my comments):

1. That the US invaded Iraq because Saddam's repeated violations of various UN resolutions indicated a serious risk to the US. (Any clear and present danger was unsubstantiated).

2. "The left", non-specific in itself, is claimed to be represented by the quotes/references YOU'VE chosen. (No comment on your beef about "cherry picking").

3. There are 3 choices given in regards to what to do about Saddam. (These are NOT representative of the best/only options).

4. Those who opposed the war are pro Saddam. (This is self-serving and circular reasoning)

5. "Relative little damage was done to Iraq in removing Saddam". (13,000 Iraqis/1,000 coalition military killed for a still unsubstantiated purpose)

6. The war was fought for humanitarian concerns or is at least supported by many as such. (This humanitarian concern was never mentioned amongst all the talk of terrorists/pre-emption/WMD/9-11. Only after these reasons began to appear insupportable did the motivation change to our concern for the poor people of Iraq and the heartless Saddam. In reality, the war was justified through manipulation of post 9/11 hysteria for a yet to be verified purpose).

For those who respond, attack the issues not the author as anything otherwise is an indication of the weakness of your position.
on Jul 15, 2004

instead of half a million casualties, there have been fewer than 15,000

the closest to a realistic number of civilian casualties i can find would seem to be about 10,000.  be that as it may, thats nearly 3 times the number killed in the attack on the world trade center.  but then...theyre only iraqis huh?

on Jul 15, 2004
Alot of the points and conclusions you make are specious, at best. The one that really stands out for me, however, is:

"Turned out someone's position about Iraq was about "the oillll". It just wasn't the US."

What?

Exactly how does Russia and France having a private agreement with a soverign nation preclude the economics weighing heavily on the decisions of a bunch of former Saudi-backed oil businessmen that happen to be at the head of the U.S. Government? I'd say it might even give more credence to the "oil-factor" weighing heavily in the decision.
on Jul 15, 2004
No, France and the rest's support for Hussein and their economic ties says a great deal about why they OPPOSED the war, and were in favor of leaving him there to torture his nation and threaten his neighbors.

Like I have said, I don't give a rat's ass if Bush and the rest made money. Better money made destroying an evil regime than money made propping it up.
on Jul 15, 2004
Why can you use quotes to make your point but anyone who uses quotes to disagree with you is on the left and anti Bush?


Because when you link to the article the quote came from it provides the context of the quote.

a) What is harder, convince people to fight a war or convince people of the need not to lift sanctions? Action (a) could have been achieved WITH French and Russian support if the US spent a fraction of the effort they spent on option (c)

( A more viable option here would have been to change the focus of the sanctions as the originally sanctions, while now known to have been working, were harming the Iraqi people. Leaving Saddam free was purely politically unacceptable. The US has had not problem in the past in leaving dictators free.


Ultimately the US did not need to convince anyone to keep the status quo. The veto power could prevent any change.

Wasn't the whole point of the oil for food program to minimize or eliminate the humanitarian consequences of the sanctions? Wasn't it also a miserable failure? What sort of sanctions would be able to contain Saddam without harming the Iraqi people?

One of the major motivations for the sanctions was that previous to the sanctions era, Saddam had ammassed one of the world's largest armies and invaded Kuwait.

d. we could have acted much less hastily.


This is really a subset of c. I listened to Tony Blair last night. He said that France and friends weren't willing to issue an ultimatum to Saddam that included the use of force. 1441 called for immediate compliance. The problems with Saddam went back to 1991, and I don't think that it is hasty to go to war after 12 years of Saddam's stonewalling and hinderance of the inspection process. I think that a measure that gave Saddam a reasonable finite amount of time to comply with 1441 would have been acceptable to the US. However, the French/German/Russian position was to give Saddam an indefinite amount of time.

I doubt an extra year would have changed the intelligence. It was essentially the same intelligence we had in 1998 when Clinton launched strikes against Iraq. The reason we found out our intelligence was wrong was that we had an unfettered presence inside Iraq. This wasn't possible as long as Saddam was in power.

The occupation certainly should have been managed better, but that isn't an argument against the war.
on Jul 15, 2004

Solitair:

1) There is a huge difference between cherry picking quotes with no context and linking to your opponent's articles in full so that people can see the entire context of something.

2) Are you seriously trying to assert that any of the things I'm linking to are untrue?

a) France and Russia were certainly trying to get sanctions lifted.

Left wingers were screaming for years about how hundreds of thousands of Iraqi civilians had died from the sanctions (with no evidence I might add).

c) Left wingers were claiming half a million casualties.  I mean come on, I linked to the city of Ann Arbor's resolution against the war (which was akin to a gazillion other liberal city resolutions) which explicitly stated the claim that up to half a million would die.

The French and Russians didn't WANT the resolutions.  But they and Saddam were both content to let the US and Britain continue spending billions enforcing the sanctions a little longer until a more "reasonable" US president got elected who'd be willing to lift them.  If there'd been a third Clinton term, the sanctions would probably have been lifted by early 2001.

on Jul 15, 2004

if we'd delayed the invasion of iraq by a year, we might easily have been able to grow a wider coalition. even if that hadn't happened, an extra 12 months might have been enough time for someone in the administration to hear the military professionals whose counsel was largely ignored.  perhaps it would have provided the intelligence agencies enough time to discover just how inaccurate their information really was. sometime during that year, it might have occured to someone in the administration to map out what to do AFTER saddam was removed from power.

Sigh. Where to begin.

1) The only reason Iraq was cooperating at all is because the US had 150,000 troops sweating it out in the desert. That kind of deployment is not sustainable for a year.

2) Your theory rests on the assumption we went in there to get stockpiles of WMD. We didn't. Even if Saddam had no WMD stockpiles at all, and we knew it for a fact, we still needed to remove him.

3) THey had a plan on what to do in post-war Iraq. It was just a stupid plan.

on Jul 15, 2004

1. That the US invaded Iraq because Saddam's repeated violations of various UN resolutions indicated a serious risk to the US. (Any clear and present danger was unsubstantiated).

Don't put words in my mouth.  I did not claim that Iraq in 2003 represented a serious (or imminent) risk to the US.  Strawman arguments aren't welcome here. This is why I don't normally allow anonymous users to come in because they're not interested in a discussion, they're interested in playing a video game of re-define the opponent's position to be one that is easier to defeat.

2. "The left", non-specific in itself, is claimed to be represented by the quotes/references YOU'VE chosen. (No comment on your beef about "cherry picking").

The left as the group opposed to doing anything seriously about Iraq.  The same people who now scream "Bush lied". The people who protest in the streets in the US.  I didn't cherry pick anything, I provided links, not quotes.

There are 3 choices given in regards to what to do about Saddam. (These are NOT representative of the best/only options).

Which I notice you don't provide "representative" or "best" options.  I've noticed that others have provided options that might work in some Utopian world but here on Earth not practical.

Relative little damage was done to Iraq in removing Saddam". (13,000 Iraqis/1,000 coalition military killed for a still unsubstantiated purpose)

Yep, definitely a mistake to let non-registered accounts quote on here.  So now going into Iraq had no substantiated purpose? I've written for 2 years why we needed to go into Iraq. So have thousands of others.  And 13,000 Iraqis in a population of around 25 MILLION is pretty small. Especially when compared to the half million dead we were told would be the case by left wing columnists, websites, and politicians. And especially when you consider how many Iraqi's Saddam had offed himself during the sanctions period.

The war was fought for humanitarian concerns or is at least supported by many as such. (This humanitarian concern was never mentioned amongst all the talk of terrorists/pre-emption/WMD/9-11. Only after these reasons began to appear insupportable did the motivation change to our concern for the poor people of Iraq and the heartless Saddam. In reality, the war was justified through manipulation of post 9/11 hysteria for a yet to be verified purpose).

I've never argued the war was fought for humanitarian concerns.  I don't care about the Iraqi's to tell you the truth. The US went into Iraq because we believed/believe it was in our best interests to remove Saddam. And we did.  What I am asserting is that it seems like the left would be glad we went in because of humanitarian reasons. THEY were the ones who seemed to be concerned about the civilian harm sanctions were doing.  And since lifting sanctions on a Saddam led Iraq wasn't a realistic option, you'd htink they would have supported his removal. I suspect that if it had been Clinton doing this they would have been okay with it.

For those who respond, attack the issues not the author as anything otherwise is an indication of the weakness of your position.

Which issues? The ones I bring up or the ones you just fabricated to represent my positions so that you could knock them down easier?

on Jul 15, 2004

2) Your theory rests on the assumption we went in there to get stockpiles of WMD. We didn't. Even if Saddam had no WMD stockpiles at all, and we knew it for a fact, we still needed to remove him.

im not sure how or why youd arrive at the conclusion my concern has anything at all to do with wmd.  it would have made infinitely more sense to have acted swiftly if that was the issue.  i was aware of pnac and its determination to effect regime change in iraq.  

the problem is--and i thought id made this clear enough but perhaps not--we didnt need to invade iraq when we did. prematurely turning our focus from afghanistan to iraq was foolish at best and didnt make us or the rest of the world any safer. as long as bin laden is able to wander around freely, were no better off than we were prior to 911

on Jul 15, 2004

Kingbee: So when would be a good time to invade Iraq? 12 years wasn't long enough? After 9/11 there was no way in hell that a Saddam-led Iraq was going to be acceptable.

Heck, we're still living with Castro 50 years later. Luckily, Castro can't do very much since he lives in a poor nation.  But the prospect of an oil-rich Castro type figure staying on right in the heart of the terrorist factory region of the world was appalling to say the least.

2 Pages1 2