Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Making too much of no bounce
Published on August 2, 2004 By Draginol In Republican

So Kerry hasn't gotten much of a bounce from his convention.  Is that a surprise? How many people are undecided at this point anyway?

I just don't see how Bush can win, however.

Consider this: IF Bush gets the same % of the female vote and the % of the African American vote that he got last time, he'll lose by 5 million votes.

Does anyone here seriously think that there's a chance in hell that Bush is going to improve his stance with women and blacks in this election?


Comments (Page 3)
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on Aug 04, 2004
If Kerry wins and the economy contiues to recover RadLibs will probably say that it was "buyer confidence" spurred on by the belief that Kerry would win. If the budget tanks a few months after he wins, they'll certainly blame it on Bush, though
Very true... but of course the ReactCons can be counted on to do exactly the reverse.

The problem in dealing with the economy is that cause and effect is so vague and open to personal interpretation -- even, in the rare cases, when the observer is really trying to figure out the non-partisan truth. Which measures are the most significant? How accurate are those measures? Which variables does one attribute the changes to? And how much time must pass, in order to see the fluctuations as more chance than meaning? Yet, there are all those numbers to quote, and we all have been taught to believe in the objectivity of numbers.

Simply the current idea that "the economy" for better or worse can routinely be attributed to a president rather than any particular policy goes a long way to demonstrate the foolishness of it all.

Economics is the only field I know of that is more abused, even than education, by ridiculous interpretations of experts and numbers.

on Aug 05, 2004
> The KKK is a nasty racist organization even today. But they're not terrorists
> today. They are a white supremacy group just like the NAACP has become a
> black supremacy group.

Oh, what a bunch of left-wing, liberal, whiny "moral equivelance" claptrap. I expected better of you. That's garbage, and -you know- it's garbage, and you're just saying it to be controversial. It fails even the most basic sniff test. Here's how you can tell.

I want you to imagine yourself walking in to your church. Y'know, YOUR church. The one your friends and neighbors go to.

Imagine yourself standing up and saying "I was thinking of going to an NAACP meeting." Man, that might be a little embarassing. You might even get some funny looks.

Now imagine yourself standing up in your church and saying "I was thinking of going to a KKK meeting." What would happen? Well, assuming you don't go to a racist church -- and I think that's a safe assumption -- here's what would happen: your pastor would talk to you after the service about your problem. Most of your friends and neighbors would probably stop letting their children play with yours. And, _they would be right_.

So don't give me this delusional, drama queen, typical no-social-skills CS geek "all people I disagree with are in the same hash bucket" attitude. The NAACP has a lot of problems, but being like the KKK in any substantive, non-left-wing-lawyer's-argument way is not one of them. You're wrong, and you know you're wrong. You would be ashamed if one of your children made such a stupid argument. Your father would be ashamed of you if he knew you were making such a stupid argument. And you should be ashamed of yourself for making it.
on Aug 05, 2004
Likening the NAACP to the KKK is "left wing"??? heh, urm... I'm not following that. The NAACP is very left wing, itself.

I think you'd get a better reaction from other church goers partially because the NAACP is living off the laurels of previous generations, and because people are simply deathly afraid to say anything politically incorrect. That seems to be changing, thank goodness. I think they are now beginning to be held accountable by the general public and their members for all the abuse and extortion they perpetrate, and the vile people they allow to manipulate the organization.
on Aug 05, 2004
What's left wing is trying to make a moral equivelance argument that an organization that engages in peaceful political protest -- even for causes that one disagrees with -- is "the same" as an organization with a 100 year history of committing public murder and dismemberment.

There is, quite simply, no comparison whatsoever. Claiming that those two organizations are effectively the same is utterly and completely morally bankrupt.
on Aug 05, 2004
peterb's replies only solidify that no political group wants to say the "bad people" are on the same side of the spectrum as they.

Draginol, the next time you feel like asking "What? I JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND it! Why do people think I'm a right-wing loony?" come back to this post and read the comment where you compare the NAACP, a political lobbying organization that holds positions one might disagree with, to the Ku Klux Klan, a terrorist organization that has a 100 year history of organizing and committing brutal public murders and vivisections of people for the crime of being black.


> The KKK is a nasty racist organization even today. But they're not terrorists
> today. They are a white supremacy group just like the NAACP has become a
> black supremacy group.

Oh, what a bunch of left-wing, liberal, whiny "moral equivelance" claptrap. I expected better of you. That's garbage, and -you know- it's garbage, and you're just saying it to be controversial. It fails even the most basic sniff test.

You can't even decide who to blame, first the right, then the left! You are a confused, anonymous person.

If conservatives see something they don't agree with or is just stupid, they call it "a bunch of left-wing, liberal, whiny 'moral equivelance' claptrap." When liberals see something they don't agree with and so on, they call it neoconservative nonsense, etc, etc. Accept the facts, no matter what side you're on.

And Draginol, when you say "What is it with left wingers and their inability to grasp objective facts", please don't lump all liberals/democrats together. I am quite capable of grasping objective facts and, from a democrat, your graph says all that needs to be said. The failing economy argument is moot. However, I think there are plenty other arguments that can be made
on Aug 05, 2004
All I meant was if he apologized to the NAACP his image with African Americans might improve, not whether it was right or wrong.  I also said it was unlikely to happen.
on Aug 05, 2004
What is it with left wingers and their inability to grasp objective facts.
The majority of people don't take time out to research facts.  The majority of people voting for Bush will be Christian and voting for him because Bush is a born again Christian himself who wears his religion on his sleeve.  I think 75 % of people I talk to about politics during the day cannot quote me things politicians have said or state any facts, or really carry on about current events and that's being generous.  This goes for both  liberals and conservatives. 
on Aug 05, 2004
psychx: Aye, it all boils down the emotional majority who are too lazy to grasp real issues.
on Aug 05, 2004
Yeah Stevendedalus the emotional majority is one of the reasons for the electoral college .  I also want to state that I read my first reply and it looks like I was stating Bush made a mistake with the NAACP.  I don't necessarily think he made a mistake, but what I meant was that considering Bush does not admit mistakes, like most Presidents, it would be highly unlikely.  I'm glad it sparked some good debate though. 
on Aug 05, 2004
the emotional majority


Heh, the phrase I have always used for this group is "the mass moronacy".
on Aug 14, 2004

Just noticed this:

The majority of people voting for Bush will be Christian and voting for him because Bush is a born again Christian himself who wears his religion on his sleeve. 

You really believe that? Sure, the majority of people voting for Bush will be Christian. But you think they're voting for Bush because he's a born again Christian? Do you have any data to back that up? I find that highly unlikely.

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