Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
Making too much of no bounce
Published on August 2, 2004 By Draginol In Republican

So Kerry hasn't gotten much of a bounce from his convention.  Is that a surprise? How many people are undecided at this point anyway?

I just don't see how Bush can win, however.

Consider this: IF Bush gets the same % of the female vote and the % of the African American vote that he got last time, he'll lose by 5 million votes.

Does anyone here seriously think that there's a chance in hell that Bush is going to improve his stance with women and blacks in this election?


Comments (Page 1)
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on Aug 02, 2004
This is easily the most widely covered US election we have ever had in Australia...

standing on the outside looking in - John Kerry's wife... she looks like she might influence a lot of the female vote... She has just been in our faces a lot, and because I am not a woman, I can't really comment, but from here it looks as though she is opening her mouth for the specific purpose of appealing to the woman voters... her opening her mouth surely couldn't appeal to the male voters

I dont know much about the black vote...

BAM!!!
on Aug 02, 2004
He might improve with the African American vote if he apologizes to the NAACP but that is about as likely as him admitting he made a mistake.
on Aug 02, 2004
I don't see Bush needing to apologize to the NAACP any more than I see Bush needing to apologize to the KKK. They are essentially the same organization these days but with different clients.
on Aug 02, 2004
The assertion that the NAACP=KKK is nonsense!
on Aug 02, 2004
I don't think he should apologize either. I also don't think it'll make a difference, because the NAACP doesn't consist of swing voters.
on Aug 02, 2004

Exactly.  Republicans need to start promoting African American organizations that are progressive in the real sense of the word -- ones that want to see African Americans succeed in the real world. Not be pampered with welfare and "state" help.

on Aug 02, 2004
Given the plethora of questionable tactics that helped GWB beat McCain ("would you be less likely to vote for John McCain if you knew that he illegimately fathered a black child? All right then, thank you for taking our survey"--the genius of Rove), and Gore, it would not surprise me whichever tricks they pull between now and election day.
on Aug 03, 2004
It's interesting that people see an image of Bush as a racist, though, when that's one tag I'd NEVER place on him, considering that his cabinet is the most racially and culturally diverse of ANY administration (as an example, Colin Powell--the highest ranking black American EVER!)
on Aug 03, 2004
For minority or gender issues to effect the election you have to believe that we are basically safe with either candidate, and beleive that the real difference is going to be the social and economic progress of the nation. I don't think people have that luxury this time. People who vote for Kerry seem to be genuinely concerned for the safety of the nation under Bush's leadership, and vice versa.

People have really expected to see who Kerry is by now. I think they thought that the Democratic convention would be where he really cemented his identity and platform. He didn't. That is troubling even to some Democrats that I know, simply because they can't trust him to make politically jeopardizing decisions. Those who remain committed to Kerry seem to know what Bush would do, and it frightens them more than what they think Kerry is capable of.

In all, I think women and African Americans will vote first for the person they can trust to do the job. This is going to come down to fear as a motivation for voter turnout. Whoever inspires the most fear in the folks that generally don't go to the polls will be the one who loses, and I believe by a wide margin this time. I don't think recounts will even be a factor.
on Aug 03, 2004
A while ago I heard that more woman than usual may be voting on security issues rather than economic ones. If that is the case, more could vote for Bush.
on Aug 03, 2004
The area I live in is 99% African American and poor. At least once a week, there are people knocking on the doors here to not only get people registered, but they are giving out stats about education, health care, jobs. Not one pro Bush person has been down my street. I think it's going to be a tight one, but so far, I don't feel like Bush is convincing too many Ohians at this point, to vote for him.
on Aug 03, 2004
I don't see any feasible way that Bush can win Nevada; he has lost a lot over screwing us on Yucca Mountain (which, by the way is EVERYONE'S problem; when that nuclear waste gets on the rails and travels through your town, you're frankly, in more jeopardy than we are). I think it is very conceivable that Badnarik (LP nominee) can attain 6-8% of the vote here; and the Badnarik votes will more likely split votes from Bush than Kerry. CW seems to cast Nader as a joke here; I don't think he'll do well at all.

on Aug 03, 2004
Draginol, the next time you feel like asking "What? I JUST DON'T UNDERSTAND it! Why do people think I'm a right-wing loony?" come back to this post and read the comment where you compare the NAACP, a political lobbying organization that holds positions one might disagree with, to the Ku Klux Klan, a terrorist organization that has a 100 year history of organizing and committing brutal public murders and vivisections of people for the crime of being black.

Hope that helps, buddy!
on Aug 03, 2004

No, I'll just assume that the person's IQ was too low to read what I wrote. I explicitly qualified my statement above with "these days" as in *current*. 

The KKK is a nasty racist organization even today.  But they're not terrorists today.  They are a white supremacy group just like the NAACP has become a black supremacy group.

If you're going to tlak about bad things a given group did in the past then why not bring up the Catholic churce, for example. They did far more harm in the past.

Far LEFT weenies will always think I'm a right wing "loon" because to them, EVERYONE looks like a far right loon other than people who share their own vision of the world.

on Aug 03, 2004
Far LEFT weenies will always think I'm a right wing "loon" because to them, EVERYONE looks like a far right loon other than people who share their own vision of the world.


Well said and absolutly true!
BTW.......How does the NAACP still maintain a tax exempt status when it is clearly a partisan leftist mouth piece? I was under the impression that they had to be a politically neutral organization to qualify and it is painfully obvious they are NOT.

Oh and.......one of the reasons that I am confident that Bush will win is a comment that democrat Randy Kelly, Mayor of St. Paul Minn, made on Sunday. "George Bush and I do not agree on a lot of issues but in turbulent times what the American people need more than anything is continuity of government, even with some imperfect policies. The economy is going in the right direction. There is no reason to believe a change of course will produce better or quicker results. The United States will bring the troops home from Iraq a lot sooner if we don't bring in a whole new leadership to run the show. We must stay the course".
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