Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.

One of the sites I hang out on is called TreeHugger.com.  People who know me in person know that I’m pretty into helping the environment.  However, I just don’t find the evidence of humans materially affecting the climate to be persuasive.

Most of the discussions are about things like making your home more energy efficient or how to improve your local environment.

But every now and then, you get a global warming discussion and the militancy of the global warming advocates comes out. 

For example, one post entitled “How do we get through to these people?!” discusses the frustration they have in convincing people of the need to pass legislation that drastically reduces our carbon footprints because of the way carbon is affecting climate (in their opinion).

After numerous people responded pointing out how dumb the average person was and that was the reason I came on and wrote:

The reason so many GW advocates get the cold shoulder is because of the sheer arrogance many of them show. The GW issue is one I've followed since before it was remotely mainstream (like many here I presume) and there's nothing more aggravating than having some family member see 'An inconvenient truth" and then have them talk down to me as if they suddenly became climatologists because they watched a movie.


I think the best path is simply to try to get people to want to reduce their footprint (Carbon or otherwise) on the earth's resources. But having people who really are often come across as being brain washed insulting people who are skeptical or disagree (I mean really, how infantile is it to call people like me "climate change deniers" as if we're akin to holocaust deniers).


Incidentally, during the little ice age, heads of state officially blamed witchcraft as the cause of the earth cooling. Humans have always believed that they had the power to control the weather whether it be from gods or controlling CO2 emissions.

Another user had then come on and said that the environmental movement needs to combine its efforts to get effective legislation passed:

My proposed solution today is to bring all the fractured factions of the environemntal movement under one umbrella and provide a warm welcome for converts to join in and participate with a grass-roots effort that allows them to buy-in to it. This may be accomplished by clearly demonstrating affordable and viable sustainable energy solutions and other ways to save money at home with energy efficiency in the short run that offer them immediate returns. In essence, such an effort involves buying the hearts and minds of the people, which is a common business ploy many comapnies use today to gain a customer base.


Then, with a ground-swell of support in shear numbers that can't be ignored, a meaningful lobbying block may be created to rouse the attention of Congressional leadership. Finally, the entire effort must have a feeling of inclusion and provide the necessary money motives that converts and supporters alike can appreciate. It may be high-time to put aside self-righteous indignation and environmental snobishness that serves no purpose in fulfilling our unified goals.

I responded by saying:

The problem is that there is no homogeneous environmental movement. I consider myself an environmentalist but am extremely skeptical about human induced global warming. And I'm not alone. Most of my colleagues who have a similar technical or scientific background are skeptical as well. That doesn't prove anything other than to say that there's a lot of people who fall into my category of being environmentalists but don't think humans are materially affecting global temperatures.


In my opinion, having the government force us to do things "for our own good" is tyranny whether it's in the name of "security" or for "the sake of our planet".

Moreover, environmentalists often strongly disagree on solutions or are totally impractical. Wind energy and solar energy, for instance, won't do the trick any time soon. But try to build a nuclear power plant (0 emissions) and suddenly they get creamed by the envirnomental movement (either reducing our carbon foot print is life or death or it's not - clearly it's not to a lot of people in the movement).

A user responded to this and my other post by saying:

Ultimately it doesn't matter what anyone believes about Global Warming, it's going to happen regardless of what anyone believes about it, and believers and deniers alike will suffer the effects alongside each other. Being a denier simply makes a person appear less intelligent in the meantime.

In other words, because I’m a “denier” I just appear less intelligent.  He went on and said:

Well one thing we've learned is that denialists haven't actually looked at the same data. While we look at data put out by NASA, NOAA, USGS, and other scientific research groups, we've noticed that denialists get their data from oil industry lobbyists, and while some of the data is the same, the data they give has been cherry picked to leave out the data which makes it clear that A: rapid climate change is happening, and that B: human activity is a primary factor.

So you see, if you don’t believe in global warming, you're just not intelligent or you’re brainwashed by big oil. 


Comments (Page 2)
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on Jun 06, 2009

Oh and yeah, you can be an environmentalist without even thinking about global warming - but everybody agrees that the world is warming on a global scale, just not if its manmade or not, isn`t that right? So..no you cannot be a global warming skeptic because it is an empirical fact, or so I heard again from unspecified sources. Average temperatures are rising slowly but surely, the northwest passage will be shipable soon and the polar caps are melting, which actually makes the people in greenland happy.. and the big oil that wants to get all the natural resources under the ice. Didn't Russia even put up a flag somewhere on the arctic ocean floor stating that big chunk of land was infact  siberian soil and belonged to them? you didn't specify the cause for that warming in the first place.

And for what it is worth, insult away!

on Jun 06, 2009

Your "cure" was to stop CO2 emissions... you said that on the CHANCE it might be harmful to the environment despite all the evidence to the contrary, that we should eliminate it. Reducing or eliminating CO2 emissions has devastating effects on the economy AND on the environment, with many ill thought of plans or just plain fraud going on that causes environmental harm. People are throwing away perfectly good products to replace them with eco friendly ones (the cost in pollution to produce them thousands of times the amount of pollution it "saves"). Power plants are shut down, areas are cleared to build more wind plants (which kill all the birds in the area), And so on.

Let me tell you a story. I was told many things are highly unhealthy, alcohol, cigarettes, sugar, salt, etc... At one point I nearly eliminated salt from my diet... and I had reoccuring headaches, the reason? water intoxication. It seemed obvious that salt is bad, nobody spoke up for salt as far as I could tell, all the "scientists" said to eliminate salt from the diet (not control its amounts, eliminate). When bombarded with "facts" verified by "scientists" (like the ones who have prooven that the earth is 6000 years old and FLAT like it says in the bible) it is unsurprising that people buy into it. But not everyone wearing a labcoat is a legitamate source (heck, I just bought one from amazon.com)

on Jun 06, 2009

No taltamir, you misunderstood that -  I evidently did not explain what I meant clearly enough. It was a general principle and not solely aimed at CO2 emissions, and I never said once to stop all Co2 emissions immediatly. I know that it would be impossible anyway and that currently our inudstrialized societies depend on it for energy and industry. But I disagree with you on your second point - since when does the environment rely on artificial co2 emissions and would be hurt without them?  Anyway, interesting story with the salt, Because I heard that too much salt is not good for you as well, and that someone that grows up in a western society has a much higher average saltintake than say, someone from an amazon tribe. The fact is, that a person who is not used to such high salt levels would probably get sick if he had to eat our normal food, and that there is usually enough salt in everyday foods like bread etc that you can live healthy even if you don't add it extra to flavour your food.

I would like to meet those scientists that have proven that the earth is flat and 6000 years old, would be very curious to hear their reasoning. The fun thing about scientific theories is that they have to hold up to scrutiny and criticism, and usually need empirical evidence. I would really like to talk with them.. better than watching Tv.

Dont patronize me about scientist and labcoats.I don't believe someone just because they have a labcoat. This is a family member and not some stranger.

on Jun 07, 2009

The fact is, that a person who is not used to such high salt levels would probably get sick if he had to eat our normal food

Don't pass off a GUESS you made on the spot as a fact. The fact is that it has nothing to do with getting used to. A human needs a certain amount of salt, great excess can cause problems (but not as much as great difficiency), salt is one of the most important nutrients. which is why it tastes so good.

Many people in the western world eat too much salt, but the solution is correct salt intake, reducing salt irresponsibly causes more harm than good.

Dont patronize me about scientist and labcoats.I don't believe someone just because they have a labcoat. This is a family member and not some stranger.

Who is giving you second hand information. He is a LAWYER who is telling you what "SCIENTISTS" told him. Also, there is terminology confusion. Nobody doubts that the earth has gotten warmer the past 30 years. the question is, did humans cause this shift or is it part of the natural cycle.

It was a general principle and not solely aimed at CO2 emissions

The general principle is wrong, the general principle of doing something because it MIGHT be good for you is risky because the same thing MIGHT be bad for you. The correct smart principle is to carefully analyze the data and chose the safer course of action.

And all REAL data analysis indicates that the safer course of action is to not cut CO2 emissions, because humans account for less than 3% of yearly emissions, because much of it is from humans breathing and not our industry. Because CO2 emissions do not raise the CO2 concentration in the atmosphere much, instead they cause an increase in growth of algea and other simple photosynthesis performing creatures. Because the temperature fluctuations matches sun activity, and because the environentalists were saying that our pollution is causing global COOLING from the 50-70s... then the earth started warming up (because sun activity started to rise, where it was on a downwards trend before) and they started saying that pollution is causing global warming instead.

on Jun 07, 2009

I'm unconvinced by the idea of global warming, but climate change seems reasonable, if only because you can see it. Whether it's human-influenced or not is irrelevant.

Whether it's human-influenced or not is TOTALLY relevant. If it's not, then there is absolutely no reason for us to make any changes in our lifestyle as a result of it.

on Jun 07, 2009

To answer your question posed in the title - no.

I disagree with your premise.

to quote him "no respectable environmental scientist seriously disputes it".

That comes across as nothing more than a lame attempt at shutting down debate. He would not need to do that if his point was strong and properly backed up by facts and evidence.

I encourage you to read up on Hans Jonas (The imperative of responsibilty: In search of ethics for the technological age, 1979) He was a philosopher that wrote very influential works, especially in environmental ethics. He basically said that the technological means available to mankind nowadays can produce unforseen consequences that can have potentially devastating effects for everybody. The problem with technology is that it develops faster than our knowledge of all possible consequences it might have does, and it is very dangerous to justify using potentially harmful technology with the steadfast belief that a resolution for any and all problems will be found in the future as knowledge increases. The contemporary generation has no moral right to play with the future of following generations, it has instead an obligation to responsibility. Mankind is the only known being with the ability to be responsible for its actions because man is free and can make choices to do or not do something. Thus, ontologically, responsibilty is a moral value.

I am not interested in the specious arguments of a philosopher. If you really believed what you wrote above, then you would immediately turn off the power to your household and find your way to the nearest cave. Since you have no proof as to what the impact of your computer will have on the the future of the planet, therefore, you have no right to be using it. Shut it off now!!!

To put it in very plain words, even if you do not believe in global warming, you just can't morally take the chance that it might be true (said point is the ethical-philosophical construct made very well by Hans Jonas.. and it is above any political or otherwise ideology).

Or put another (religious) way, since you can't prove that God doesn't exist, you had better go to church every day for the rest of your life and pray for your salvation. You can't morally take the chance that you might be wrong on this, so you had better follow every religion known to mankind as well (just to be safe).

Poppycock!

on Jun 07, 2009

all I said was that mankind has the moral responsibility to the future generations to think before doing things that we don't know the outcome of for sure and that could have uncontrollable consequences.

If that was the case, then mankind never should have stepped out of the first cave - if you can't predict the outcome, then you shouldn't make a move, right?

on Jun 07, 2009

Oh, one more thing. Your brother-in-law must be some sort of a super genious. Much smarter than Einstein - like maybe a Wile E. Coyote. For he has a complete grasp of an extremely complex system by looking at some data and running it through a super computer.

Applying the same logic as the AGW theorists, we should surely be able to predict the future of the economy simply by looking at supply and demand. Clearly you need to only consider one criterion as it relates to a complex system.

Perhaps he can use the same methods to explain to us what effects the automotive bailouts will have on the economy for the next 100 years. That is a much shorter timeframe than the rest of our (supposedly) doomed existence by the effects of AGW.

Anyone who says that they can fully comprehend a complex system with the knowledge that we have today is either a liar or deluded.

While I am open to a persuasive argument on the subject, I have yet to see one.

on Jun 07, 2009

Your "cure" was to stop CO2 emissions... you said that on the CHANCE it might be harmful to the environment despite all the evidence to the contrary, that we should eliminate it. Reducing or eliminating CO2 emissions has devastating effects on the economy AND on the environment, with many ill thought of plans or just plain fraud going on that causes environmental harm. People are throwing away perfectly good products to replace them with eco friendly ones (the cost in pollution to produce them thousands of times the amount of pollution it "saves"). Power plants are shut down, areas are cleared to build more wind plants (which kill all the birds in the area), And so on.

There are economy-friendliy ways to start reducing emissions. The main problem is simply that it will bother the status quo, and companies will have to move a little.

If you use a semi-hard carbon-cap policy to first establish a maximum of emission the companies are going to be allowed to produce, based on the industry they are in. They are allowed to reject up to a certain amount of pollution before starting to pay a penalty fee (which should be harsh and proportional to the over-polluting, for reasons I will put below). 

However, as opposed to most standards you usually give companies, which only penalise them if they don't respect the standards and don't give jackshit if you actually do better than the standards the law sets, companies should be allowed to run a negative balance on their emission. Let's say the best company in the power-production sector emits 20% less than the average power-producing companiy (because of measures taken here and there, and efficient management), they would have 20% of their "carbon credit" unused.

These credits could be sold off in a carbon-credit market, where companies who went over the allowed amount of emission should buy, unless they pay the hefty fine (the fine should be very high, as it will effectively puts an economic ceilling on the carbon credit price, which is innefficient)

Now, if you start your carbon-limitation economy without trying too squeeze too much out of it, you will potentially increase the profits of some more eco-friendly companies while potentially reducing the profits of others, but with a purely economical outlook rather than arbitrary taxes hammered on anybody's head.

Some special projects that would usually be economically nonviable might actually become more attractive for many, as the carbon break granted will fit nicely into the budget.

If you slowly but surely diminish the industry-wide carbon limit (slowly, in order to allow the industry to adapt with proper capital investment, and surely so the industry has no doubt that long-term investment will pay off), you might eventually (10 years) considerably reduce your industry's overall carbon emission without having to break your economy too much in the initial legislation. Business that were ran in environmentally-innefficient ways will progressively have to start to reform, or be put out of business. But other business will boom, as carbon-catcher businesses might start existing in order to provide the market with more carbon-credits.

If your industry struggle too much, the carbon-credit price will go up, and more carbon-catching business will appear. Also, with higher carbon-credit prices, companies will see that there is even more economical insentive to spend in eco-friendly ventures.

I see it as a Green Capitalist dream   You don't need the governement to do much in it, as the companies will find themselves the way to turn into greener form of themselves. The government's job will merely setting the ceilling price for the carbon penalty, setting the proper cap for industries based on the production levels (that might be complex, but not impossible).

Anyway, the whole idea is to give enterprises a benefit for doing more than the bare minimum. Right now, the only intensive a company has for doing "more" than what the law requires of it is good PR, or the generosity of its owners. However, not all administrator have the luxury of being generous with their company's asset for the environment (they might get censored by the administrative board, for example). With a money-benefit linked to green investments, it's going to be easier for everybody to do such actions.

on Jun 07, 2009

Bunnahabbain, how do you think theories about climate are developed in the first place? By looking in the sky and smoking a bong? Or maybe you interpret data and do something with the results, which is of course totally easy peasy and no big deal, anybody can do it.. just collect data from all the weather balloons, and satelites, weather stations all over the globe, buoys in the ocean etc and do all necessary work (without a computer) - im sure you win the next Nobelprice in every category.Go on, show us how its done, just pansies need supercomputers anyway.

Also, economists do alot of calculating. I am sure youll find someone who can just do that if you give him or her enough data, or where do YOU think all the predictions about economic development come from? Politicians must pull them just out their asses, right?

And Albert Einstein lived before the extent of environmental problems became evident and common knowledge or im sure he'd have tossed his two cents in loud and clear - my guess would be along the lines of Hans Jonas. Did you know that natural science evolved about 200 years ago out of philosophy in the first place? Right back then some dudes starting thinking about mankind an nature and the relation between the two, and suddenly their models of explaining the world weren't sufficient anymore. Alexander Humboldt was a philosopher as well. So it is really ignorant to diss a philosopher because he has no degree in natural science, those two disciplines are closely related.

 

on Jun 07, 2009

Back in the good old times when the cavemen were killing sabretooth tigers and whatnot, they had had no technology besides a torch and sharpened stone  to affect the environment like it is possible today, thus your argument is nullified. "Not knowing what will/could/might happen - thus be extracareful" is exclusively tagged to modern technology.

Just look at China and how they pollute all their freshwater because their industry does not seem to care the slightest as long as they can make a profit. It is possible to kill a healthy river in relatively short time if you let all your waste flow into it. This is a perfect example for what i was trying to say: Technology can be really harmful and that is why you need new rules. Just because the caveman could shit in the river without a problem does NOT mean that industry can just dump all their chemical waste into it in the same manner. But maybe the Chinese and everybody else who does it thinks like you.. the caveman did it, too!

on Jun 07, 2009

I just remembered another interesting story that I heard - which I don't have prove for but it is too far out there to be made up. Birthcontrol pills work with hormones, and human waste from people that take medicine based on hormones is passed down in sewage system, which clears the water etc. Even though wasterwater process plants are very thorough, they can not clean out all traces of hormones from said waste from people who took the medicine (i dont even know if they can at all). Thus, the hormones stayed in the water and started to affect the aquatic environment. I have heard that there are male fish somewhere that developed extra female traits due to all the estrogen in the water that can't be cleared out.

So.. all the new drugs that people take end up in the environment sooner or later because some trace elements can't be cleared and over time accumulate and start to have effects on the environment that nobody foresaw. Nobdy could have thought about it - which does not mean that new drugs should not be developed, just that possible side effects like from that example have to/should strongly be considered while developing new drugs - with the possibility that maybe certain things are then out of the question. Is this principle really so hard to grasp?

on Jun 07, 2009

And just where do you think all the cruise ships get rid of their trash? All big container ships and basically any ship that is big enough to cross the ocean just dumps the waste in international waters because there are no rules and laws that say you can't. Big oil tankers wash out their tanks there and nobody really cares, because evidently the ocean is big enough and can take it - until proven otherwise by the oh so demanded hard evidence. But maybe when evidence will be there it is too late to repair any damage. Maybe the fish eat toxic food, and the endproducer of fishingfleets end up buying toxic fish in their local grocerystore and are eating their own waste - in a manner of speaking. So once again, technology makes it possible to haul tons of freight all over the world, and the sideeffects of shipping like ocean dumping of oh well, anything really, are not considered because they are not visible at first. Out of sight - out of mind. It is so easy and kid can do it! But lets wait till there is undisputable evidence, shall we? I mean, whatever I said is so totally leftwing hippie treehugging crazy that it is not even worth listening to. Who cares if your kids might eat hormoneinfluenced fish in the future? Just develop a drug that cures that and all will be well. I wish everybody good luck with that.

on Jun 07, 2009

There are economy-friendliy ways to start reducing emissions. The main problem is simply that it will bother the status quo, and companies will have to move a little.

That is called saving money on electric bills, and all companies do what they can already. I reduce power consumption whereever I can, but I make calculations of consumption, cost to implement, and cost of electricity to determine if I save or waste money, and when its waste, I do not do it.

on Jun 08, 2009

That is called saving money on electric bills, and all companies do what they can already. I reduce power consumption whereever I can, but I make calculations of consumption, cost to implement, and cost of electricity to determine if I save or waste money, and when its waste, I do not do it.

Yes. And it works well when it comes to electric consumption, doesn't it?

Now, we could do the same thing with carbon emission. If we could find a way to apply these things to other environmental problems, we would have an industry trying to optimise their environmental mark, since there is profit to be had out of it.

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