Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.

One of the sites I hang out on is called TreeHugger.com.  People who know me in person know that I’m pretty into helping the environment.  However, I just don’t find the evidence of humans materially affecting the climate to be persuasive.

Most of the discussions are about things like making your home more energy efficient or how to improve your local environment.

But every now and then, you get a global warming discussion and the militancy of the global warming advocates comes out. 

For example, one post entitled “How do we get through to these people?!” discusses the frustration they have in convincing people of the need to pass legislation that drastically reduces our carbon footprints because of the way carbon is affecting climate (in their opinion).

After numerous people responded pointing out how dumb the average person was and that was the reason I came on and wrote:

The reason so many GW advocates get the cold shoulder is because of the sheer arrogance many of them show. The GW issue is one I've followed since before it was remotely mainstream (like many here I presume) and there's nothing more aggravating than having some family member see 'An inconvenient truth" and then have them talk down to me as if they suddenly became climatologists because they watched a movie.


I think the best path is simply to try to get people to want to reduce their footprint (Carbon or otherwise) on the earth's resources. But having people who really are often come across as being brain washed insulting people who are skeptical or disagree (I mean really, how infantile is it to call people like me "climate change deniers" as if we're akin to holocaust deniers).


Incidentally, during the little ice age, heads of state officially blamed witchcraft as the cause of the earth cooling. Humans have always believed that they had the power to control the weather whether it be from gods or controlling CO2 emissions.

Another user had then come on and said that the environmental movement needs to combine its efforts to get effective legislation passed:

My proposed solution today is to bring all the fractured factions of the environemntal movement under one umbrella and provide a warm welcome for converts to join in and participate with a grass-roots effort that allows them to buy-in to it. This may be accomplished by clearly demonstrating affordable and viable sustainable energy solutions and other ways to save money at home with energy efficiency in the short run that offer them immediate returns. In essence, such an effort involves buying the hearts and minds of the people, which is a common business ploy many comapnies use today to gain a customer base.


Then, with a ground-swell of support in shear numbers that can't be ignored, a meaningful lobbying block may be created to rouse the attention of Congressional leadership. Finally, the entire effort must have a feeling of inclusion and provide the necessary money motives that converts and supporters alike can appreciate. It may be high-time to put aside self-righteous indignation and environmental snobishness that serves no purpose in fulfilling our unified goals.

I responded by saying:

The problem is that there is no homogeneous environmental movement. I consider myself an environmentalist but am extremely skeptical about human induced global warming. And I'm not alone. Most of my colleagues who have a similar technical or scientific background are skeptical as well. That doesn't prove anything other than to say that there's a lot of people who fall into my category of being environmentalists but don't think humans are materially affecting global temperatures.


In my opinion, having the government force us to do things "for our own good" is tyranny whether it's in the name of "security" or for "the sake of our planet".

Moreover, environmentalists often strongly disagree on solutions or are totally impractical. Wind energy and solar energy, for instance, won't do the trick any time soon. But try to build a nuclear power plant (0 emissions) and suddenly they get creamed by the envirnomental movement (either reducing our carbon foot print is life or death or it's not - clearly it's not to a lot of people in the movement).

A user responded to this and my other post by saying:

Ultimately it doesn't matter what anyone believes about Global Warming, it's going to happen regardless of what anyone believes about it, and believers and deniers alike will suffer the effects alongside each other. Being a denier simply makes a person appear less intelligent in the meantime.

In other words, because I’m a “denier” I just appear less intelligent.  He went on and said:

Well one thing we've learned is that denialists haven't actually looked at the same data. While we look at data put out by NASA, NOAA, USGS, and other scientific research groups, we've noticed that denialists get their data from oil industry lobbyists, and while some of the data is the same, the data they give has been cherry picked to leave out the data which makes it clear that A: rapid climate change is happening, and that B: human activity is a primary factor.

So you see, if you don’t believe in global warming, you're just not intelligent or you’re brainwashed by big oil. 


Comments (Page 3)
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on Jun 08, 2009

electric consumption IS carbon emissions...

And there is NO price benefit to reducing carbon emissions, none at all. Unless you start taxing carbon emissions, in which case there will be a "cost" per carbon and companies will calculate if its cheaper to implement a carbon reducing temp, or pay the fine.

And there is no GOOD environmental mark, you keep on making arguments based on the FAITH the CO2 is bad. Stop being so religious about this and get with the program.

on Jun 08, 2009

 

Am I the only one who remembers the "cycle of water" and the "cycle of photosynthesis" from first grade (when you are 6 years old) biology?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_cycle

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxygen_cycle

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Photosynthesis

 

Dry air contains roughly (by volume) 78.08% nitrogen, 20.95% oxygen, 0.93% argon, 0.038% carbon dioxide, and trace amounts of other gases.

 

 

Plants produce almost all the oxygen in the air. 20.95% of its volume, via photosynthesis of CO2... of which they have left less than 0.038% in the air. they are practically starved for CO2 from the massive amounts of plants out there.

This is why providing plants with more CO2 artifically causes them to grow better and be healthier.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=carbon+dioxide+enrichment

 

Increases in human emissions of CO2 have NOT increased the amount of CO2 in the air, they only increased the growth rather of photosynthesisers, specifically ALGEA. Which CAN be a problem actually with SOME algea species overgrowing. But overall I consider it to be a GOOD THING.

Finally, if we are worried about CO2 production we should be planting forests, not capping its emission.

on Jun 08, 2009

I checked wikipedia - since you referenced it: Nobody says that Carbonmonoxide is poisenous, or that all greenhouse gases are bad. In fact, without them it would be very very very cold, and they are a natural part of the atmosphere. Even though humanproduced Co2 is only a small part of the whole Co2 that exists worldwide, the burning of fossil resources frees up Co2 that had been bound for millenia. which in turn causes the Co2 concentration in the atmosphere to increase. The Over time - since the start of the industrial revolution - it has increased significantly. The anual average increase of Co2 between the years 1960 and 2005 was 1,4 ppm (Article from "Proceedings of the National Accademy of Science of the United States" http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.full.pdf), and this average even increased after 2005. It upsets the balance and has an effect on the atmosphere and climate. There IS consensus about that (http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/reprint/306/5702/1686.pdf), unless of course you mistrust every scientist in the world just because they are scientist and can't possibly know anything anyway.

on Jun 08, 2009

... but everybody agrees that the world is warming on a global scale, just not if its manmade or not, isn`t that right? So..no you cannot be a global warming skeptic because it is an empirical fact, or so I heard again from unspecified sources. Average temperatures are rising slowly but surely, the northwest passage will be shipable soon and the polar caps are melting, which actually makes the people in greenland happy...

Wow. You really are completely unwilling to look at the data too, aren't you?

First of all, it is virtually impossible to derive any kind of confidence from a regression analysis when your known data subset is a subset of an unknown subset of another unknown subset from an unknown and indeterminate population. The temperature data sets we have are "valid" within a small time window and only within that time window. Of more reliable interpretation (though once again within a very small time window) are the sunspot and sunspot group counts for the last few hundreds of years. But once again the sample period is a statistically meaningless set of data for any kind forward trending or regression.

There is as much STASTICAL and SCIENTIFIC evidence for "global cooling" as there is for "global warming". Anthro-historically speaking, more evidence points to extra-terrestrial influence (solar mostly), though the terran magnetic core flux changes may play some role as well as far as geo-thermal internal heat reaction go. The polar ice caps are changing, but not melting en-masse. The continental ice sheet depth in Antarctica has been increasing rapidly over the last couple of decades. The well publicized future ice shelf collapses on that continent are frequent and normal (geologically speaking) events.

The fact that there is a chain of volcanoes erupting for the last five years on the North Atlantic seafloor near the artic couldn't possible have any effect on the ocean temperatures and the north polar ice cap size, could it?

As for the 'starving polar bears'? The fact that their population has doubled in the last decade surely wouldn't put any strain on their food supply.

My point in all of this is that various 'facts' are use to contstruct an argument that shouldn't really even be raised to the level of a hypoothesis, much less a theory, and certainly not give the label of a "fact based on empirical data," when in actuality there is insufficient data to form any theory one way or the other.

First you draw a hypothesis. Then through experimentation and repetition, you form a theory. If you find even ONE result which contradicts your theory, you reduce your theory to a hypothesis, and start over. There IS NO such thing as a scientific fact, only theories which have yet to be disproven.

on Jun 08, 2009

electric consumption IS carbon emissions...

And there is NO price benefit to reducing carbon emissions, none at all. Unless you start taxing carbon emissions, in which case there will be a "cost" per carbon and companies will calculate if its cheaper to implement a carbon reducing temp, or pay the fine.

Sorry. Not in my homeland, where most of our electricity comes from non-carbon sources.

Anyway. The Carbon Credit Market I proposed in my earlier post (which no one seems keen to comment about) was a form of tax on excesses of Carbon emission, but also a way to promote carbon-catcher industries in economically-viable ways. Playing the market is always the most efficient way to deal with problems.

on Jun 08, 2009

No, you're right. It is of course irresponsible to try to argue based on personal halfknowledge and assumptions, and statistical evidence is just a set of data that says neither nay nor yay. BUT it is fun.. and thank the lord, my oppinion has about as much importance as two joes drunkenly debating whether brown hens can only lay brown eggs or if fishsize determines how deep they can dive..

Your very valid point also negates the being religiously skeptic part, doesn't it though? Shouldn't people rather say - we don't know one way or the other, but lets not get carried away and use that as a free pass to do just about anything we want?

on Jun 08, 2009

I am of the "If we aren't sure and we can't agree on definite answers, let's push gently the industry the right way anyway. It can only be good for us in the long run"

Now, would anyone disagree that, if you forget the economical implication of stopping Carbon emissions from our industries (actually, all the emissions), it would be a good thing?

Now, if it's a good thing anyway, how about starting to do things in a way that they will actually be the ones pushing for better standards?

on Jun 08, 2009

@ Korwyn: The first argument I tried to make here was just scorned and laughed at because it was a philosophical and ethical one and has nothing to do with citing scientists or proving ones theory  - even though I also did that in that and subsequent posts, maybe I should not have. But hey, it IS fun to spout slogans and to polarize.. I couldn't resist and it would hardly be so popular in the US otherwise.

Hans Jonas lived in the US and published his work in the US. He was a german philosopher that emigrated after the end of WW 2. The idea that nature has intrinsic value, the whole idea of being an environmentalist in the first place and the subsequent debate was kickstarted by his work. People like Peter Singer (animal liberation) and Paul Taylor (Respect for nature: a theory of environmental ethics) and many others  laid the groundwork for ethical positions regarding the environment/nature. Everybody today that thinks that protecting the environment, being green etc. is normal and accepted as a norm in society owes it to him.

His idea does make so much sense to me, and it is not about cutting off all emissions or not advancing humanity in every way (technologically, scientifically ..), the contrary is the case. But he issued a warning regarding the effects technology could/can/might have on the environment  in the future with the plea to act responsibly and to not do everything that is possible just because it IS possible.

It is normal procedure these days (at least in Germany) that hospitals have ethic comissions for exactly that reason - not everything that is possible with modern medicine should be done. In problematic cases this ethic comission is called in, and I bet that nobody here on this forum would argue that it is total nonsense to do that. Some decisions are difficult and have repercussions and consequences that have to be carefully considered and weighed against each other.  Would it be so stupid to apply the same carefulness and consideration, the same principle while developing and using technology?

on Jun 08, 2009

Now, would anyone disagree that, if you forget the economical implication of stopping Carbon emissions from our industries (actually, all the emissions), it would be a good thing?

Firstly, you cannot just "forget the cost" because there is one.

Secondly, I do not agree to that. If industry emitted carbon affects the temperature, and we do not know the exact chance, then there is a 50% chance that lowering them prevents ESSENTIAL "anti ice age" emissions. Maybe our emissions are the only thing saving us from a global ice age catastrophe. It is EQUALLY as likely as it causing a global WARMING catastrophy.

Besides which, most emissions are not from industry.

There are underground coal fires and volcanos that produce more CO2 than the ENTIRETY OF HUMANITY COMBINED! And we DO have the technology to DOUSE those if desired. So if carbon is a REAL problem than what we should do is douse a few of those... of course then plants will start dying and so on...

BTW, CO2 is an extremely MINOR global warming gas. Water is much more effective, methane, etc... there are tons of gasses that capture energy in the atmosphere, and without CO2, which is 0.038%, we will NOT be frozen like you said. Since other, more effective, greenhouse gasses comprise a much greater portion of the atmosphere.

on Jun 09, 2009

taltamir. Who said when and where that ALL carbonmonoxide all over the world has to be eliminated? Where do you get this idea? Your argument is plainly very very uncomprehensible. When talking about reducing CO2 in the media, it always referres to what is produced by manmade industry - which, it is assumed, accumulates in the atmosphere and could have an asof  yet undetermined effect on the climate. As far as I have understood it (which is just in very basic terms) the atmospheric system works because it has a balance that has developed over time. If changes happen to the ratio of the gases in the atmosphere, it could have consequences on the climate. As far as I can tell now -after being corrected all over the place -the ongoing debate in the media is wether this potential manmade increase of CO2 in the atmosphere can have effect an since changes were normal and happened all the time (geologically speaking) or not. It is NOT about wether a natural gas necessary for life on this planet has to be eradicated all of a sudden.

on Jun 09, 2009

Some folks seem to think CO2 is somehow created from nothing. All the carbon that is available was always here and much of it was airborne during the Carboniferous Period millions of years ago. Plant life thrived during this period and when the earth cooled (without man's help) this very same carbon was locked into the earth in the form of coal, shale and oil. It is doubtful that man have raise the level of CO2 to what it was then. And even if we did what would be the down size? Vegetables of huge size and proportion? I'm amazed that so many environmentalists would be against the earth returning to its greenest period ever.

Other forms of pollution are more worrisome, sulfur, carbon monoxides. Although these gases have always been around as well, there effects are much more serious in quantity. By all means lets minimize pollution, especially heavy metals and other toxins. But don't worry about CO2, after all we are carbon based and will go back into the soil after time.

A bit off topic but it relates indirectly. The history channel had a show on Modern Marvels about radiation. At the turn of the century people were taking radioactive pills to promote everything from hair growth to improved libido. Right up until the mid 1950's you could put your feet under an X-ray box and see the bones in your feet as they fit into your new shoes. These things leaked radiation in alarming doses. My point is science doesn't always get it right in hindsight. When I was a kid people where crying the earth was cooling, now it's warming how silly. If we look at trends we should be due for another Ice Age soon and I don't believe cavemen or woolly mammoths brought those on. It would be so easy for me to make a prediction now that may or may not come true hundreds or thousands of years after I'm dead. No risk at all.

It's all about separating you from your money by use fear, guilt, or sense of righteousness. Just like the hucksters selling the radiation pills to the gullible, someone wants to sell you carbon credits and why? To make money. Just a short look back should reaffirm what gullible animals humans really are.  Remember bomb shelters and hiding under your desk during a nuclear attack, Bill Gates paying you to forward an e-mail, buying homes that people knew they couldn't afford? Too many examples to mention.

So yes, lets keep the planet clean, be good stewards and all, but cut the "sky is falling" scare tactics thats true goal is to make money selling, books, movies, and carbon credits. I guarantee the scheme that a few are pushing is going to make them billions from nothing but your fear. This will be the biggest fraud ever perpetrated because it is global in nature. Even if it is discovered years later the money will be lost and some new scheme will be in vogue.

on Jun 09, 2009

its carbon dioxide not monoxide. And -I- said that if carbon is a REAL problem then we have the power to deal with it by douse some volcanos and underground coal fires which produce more CO2 than humanity does. Or we could douse one really small one that produces as much as humanities INDUSTRY combined.

You seem to think that CO2 is not the real problem, but that the problem is that there is some magical "natural balance" which is EXACTLY RIGHT and that anything humans do via corporate industrialism is upsetting this balance. Well, you are wrong.

on Jun 10, 2009

Yeah, thanks for the correct terminology.
Ok so please correct me if I got this totally wrong:
1. There is a greenhouse effect caused be greenhouse gases that causes some of the energy from the sun that reflects from the surface to reflect back. Co2 is one of those gases. Its molecules react in a certain way to heat from the sun. This greenhouse effect theory is generally not disputed, or I haven`t heard it.

2. Theories of global warming (greenhouse effect) link Co2 with this process because the more co2 molecules you have the more molecules can reflect energy back to the surface the warmer it gets. If the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is indeed influenced by worldwide industry, then that can be linked directly with the greenhouse effect. That is the theory of global warming.

3. The "magic balance" as you called it, not me, developed over time as the planet evolved. And there are alot of balances just right that made it possible for life to develop at all. The right distance from the sun, the moon, the tilt of the axis, other huge planets in the solar system with more gavity that atract meteors etc. - it is one very miraculous set of circumstances that had to come together just exactly right.

4. Where does all the oil come from? From a time when the global climate was a lot warmer - or there would not be oil under the arctic ice at all. Millions of years ago there was more greenhouse effect so the planet was warmer. Estimates - admittedly, I only got that out of graphics - have a lot higher concentration of co2 hundred of millions years ago. So there is a ton of circumstantial evidence that supports the theory of a link between CO2 and global climate.

on Jun 14, 2009

I strongly feel that this whole thing is a cycle.  I had this whole debate with some lepton in a previous thread about some time ago.  If Lula or Leauki (they're not the lepton) reads this maybe they can remember who and where.  I think Nitro posted on that thread as well but can't remember it was a while ago.  To which I'm sure no one is going to remember due to the fact of how many threads I'm sure everyone has posted on.

Essentially, he (the lepton) was espoucing that its all manmade (AGW). I posted article galore all of which I own and read (to which you need to subscribe to). He eventually said we can't know since neither of us are actually involved with the whole process.  To his ninnyhammer comment deserved no response because he doesn't know if I'm involved in that research or for that matter what type of research that I do.

Anywho, to the current debate.  Without me even posting anything because I don't feel like posting anything because the last dialogue I had on this subject was with that neonate.  I feel strongly since the sun has been having increase solar flares that this is having a huge impact on our environment which would be suspected considering the gigantic size of our sun compared to the rest of the planets AND with your 4 qualifiers looking at your #1 you can easily see that the sun does have a huge impact on the ecosystem. 

Who ever made the comment that this whole thing is a very very complex (they were calling the above posters brother-in-law Wiley E. Coyote, which btw I thought was HIGHlarious) problem/situation in a previous post is very very correct.  For I feel our Sun has a greater impact than us people as well as the following:

One final note, as a previous poster pointed out that volcanoes have been erupting like crazy goes to show that the earth's core is heating up.  This has an impact on water temperature and air temperature.

Maybe Obama can solve both this economical crisis and this problem by having a flat tax rate on flatulence (aka a fart tax).  Just tax everyone's farts and everything that farts.  For the poorer people that can't pay taxes they just need to plant a tree everytime they fart or pet a squirrel.

 

on Jun 14, 2009

The "magic balance" as you called it, not me, developed over time as the planet evolved.

Yet this magical balance doesn't seem to mind when a new coal fire, peat fire, or volcano starts and belches several times as much CO2 as humanity combined into the air. or when an old coal fire/etc exhausts itself after a few hundred years and decreases the CO2 being emitted by several times as much as humanity combined.

I agree that there is a balance, i say magical because it seems to be considered to be static, unchanging, and unsuitable for human industry and human industry alone regardless of any scientific measurements.

Where does all the oil come from? From a time when the global climate was a lot warmer

I avoid such crass language normally, but:

LOL!

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