Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.

One of the sites I hang out on is called TreeHugger.com.  People who know me in person know that I’m pretty into helping the environment.  However, I just don’t find the evidence of humans materially affecting the climate to be persuasive.

Most of the discussions are about things like making your home more energy efficient or how to improve your local environment.

But every now and then, you get a global warming discussion and the militancy of the global warming advocates comes out. 

For example, one post entitled “How do we get through to these people?!” discusses the frustration they have in convincing people of the need to pass legislation that drastically reduces our carbon footprints because of the way carbon is affecting climate (in their opinion).

After numerous people responded pointing out how dumb the average person was and that was the reason I came on and wrote:

The reason so many GW advocates get the cold shoulder is because of the sheer arrogance many of them show. The GW issue is one I've followed since before it was remotely mainstream (like many here I presume) and there's nothing more aggravating than having some family member see 'An inconvenient truth" and then have them talk down to me as if they suddenly became climatologists because they watched a movie.


I think the best path is simply to try to get people to want to reduce their footprint (Carbon or otherwise) on the earth's resources. But having people who really are often come across as being brain washed insulting people who are skeptical or disagree (I mean really, how infantile is it to call people like me "climate change deniers" as if we're akin to holocaust deniers).


Incidentally, during the little ice age, heads of state officially blamed witchcraft as the cause of the earth cooling. Humans have always believed that they had the power to control the weather whether it be from gods or controlling CO2 emissions.

Another user had then come on and said that the environmental movement needs to combine its efforts to get effective legislation passed:

My proposed solution today is to bring all the fractured factions of the environemntal movement under one umbrella and provide a warm welcome for converts to join in and participate with a grass-roots effort that allows them to buy-in to it. This may be accomplished by clearly demonstrating affordable and viable sustainable energy solutions and other ways to save money at home with energy efficiency in the short run that offer them immediate returns. In essence, such an effort involves buying the hearts and minds of the people, which is a common business ploy many comapnies use today to gain a customer base.


Then, with a ground-swell of support in shear numbers that can't be ignored, a meaningful lobbying block may be created to rouse the attention of Congressional leadership. Finally, the entire effort must have a feeling of inclusion and provide the necessary money motives that converts and supporters alike can appreciate. It may be high-time to put aside self-righteous indignation and environmental snobishness that serves no purpose in fulfilling our unified goals.

I responded by saying:

The problem is that there is no homogeneous environmental movement. I consider myself an environmentalist but am extremely skeptical about human induced global warming. And I'm not alone. Most of my colleagues who have a similar technical or scientific background are skeptical as well. That doesn't prove anything other than to say that there's a lot of people who fall into my category of being environmentalists but don't think humans are materially affecting global temperatures.


In my opinion, having the government force us to do things "for our own good" is tyranny whether it's in the name of "security" or for "the sake of our planet".

Moreover, environmentalists often strongly disagree on solutions or are totally impractical. Wind energy and solar energy, for instance, won't do the trick any time soon. But try to build a nuclear power plant (0 emissions) and suddenly they get creamed by the envirnomental movement (either reducing our carbon foot print is life or death or it's not - clearly it's not to a lot of people in the movement).

A user responded to this and my other post by saying:

Ultimately it doesn't matter what anyone believes about Global Warming, it's going to happen regardless of what anyone believes about it, and believers and deniers alike will suffer the effects alongside each other. Being a denier simply makes a person appear less intelligent in the meantime.

In other words, because I’m a “denier” I just appear less intelligent.  He went on and said:

Well one thing we've learned is that denialists haven't actually looked at the same data. While we look at data put out by NASA, NOAA, USGS, and other scientific research groups, we've noticed that denialists get their data from oil industry lobbyists, and while some of the data is the same, the data they give has been cherry picked to leave out the data which makes it clear that A: rapid climate change is happening, and that B: human activity is a primary factor.

So you see, if you don’t believe in global warming, you're just not intelligent or you’re brainwashed by big oil. 


Comments (Page 5)
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on Jun 25, 2009

You dont make any sense, lol. That does not disqualify my statement about the connection between hightech bio engineering and its possible effect, if anything you underline it when basic biology is enough to grasp that principle.

on Jun 25, 2009

Thank you so much for finally agreeing

on Jun 25, 2009

So, let me get this straight.  You believe that technology is advancing at a pace at which we may be able to reduce the planet's temperature in the near (or distant) future, but that this same technology may have unintended side-effects?

While I personally would place the technology in the very, very, very distant future, if at all, I agree that technologies can have unintended side-effects.  However, genetically altered crops aren't an issue.  At this point, scientists are not completely changing the crops, but simply making them more resistant to things like pesticides, insects, and various plant diseases.

And at any rate, in order to completely change a crop, we would have to perfectly understand how its genetic information is coded, which geonomes did what.  At this point our genetics knowledge is sketchy at best.  What information we have is based on trial-and-error experimentation, not actual knowledge of funtionality, so even creating a new plant is completely beyond our capabilities.  I think this is what Taltamir was attempting to say before.

on Jun 25, 2009

yes - technology is advancing at a fast pace

No - did not mention anything specific about what technology can do in regard to climate change

yes - technology can have unknown sideeffects

The example with the crops was just one randomly picked by me for the sole purpose that genetic engineering as it were has nothing to do with the atmosphere

yes - making crops resistant is all that I mentioned, did I say anything about changing them completely? I mentioned the possible resistance against certain insects and the unintended and unforseeable reactions that could create, not what consequences there might be for newly invented species. That is science fiction as of now - unless you count crossbreeding of plants and creating hybrids into that category.

I have no knowledge about how far along scientists are in decoding the genomes of plants and or creating new plants - that was not even mentioned by me.

 

on Jun 26, 2009

Well whether you believe in global warming or not, supporters of the presidents cap and trade policy are halfway closer to celebrating (the bill passed in the house). This way when those nasty polluters, like many of the coal fired power plants, can pay dearly for their mess. When I say pay, I mean pass those costs onto you, the consumer. What a great scam to force a hidden tax on something nobody has a clue about it's effects. Way to go Obama...change you can believe in.

on Jun 27, 2009

When I say pay, I mean pass those costs onto you, the consumer. What a great scam to force a hidden tax on something nobody has a clue about it's effects. Way to go Obama...change you can believe in.
ouch. I hate those hidden taxes. We have one of our own in Germany, on gas. Officially, it is called ecotax, but it is used to fill the pension fund because the stupid demographic pyramid has more and more people that need money and less and less people that pay into it. Yeah, lucky me, if I reach that age where I'd be able to recieve my monthly cheque, it'll be totally empty. So everybody here has to pay that tax and into the pensionfund and on top of everything start saving privatly to have something when you're old. Joy

on Jun 27, 2009

What's with all the insults hmm?...You just make statements without backing them up most of the time.

You end up having to get used to it around here I'm afraid.

 

I groan whenever I hear someone justify a view of burying our heads in the sand re global warming based on there not being any 100% irrefutable proof of human activities having a significant impact on it. You shouldn't need proof to take action against global warming, you just need a chance. If there is a chance that human activities will play a significant role in causing a highly detramental state of affairs, and that those activities can be changed to avoid or greatly reduce such negative effects, then it should definitely be looked at. The pragmatic approach is to evaluate the cost of reducing the activities in question against the expected benefit this would have in terms of reducing the likelihood and/or impact of global warming (i.e. weighted by the estimated probability of the events occuring). It won't be possible to get exact figures, but if you can take several actions now at a fairly low cost which would be expected to greatly reduce the harmful effects later on, then it would be the most sensible course to undertake such actions now rather than ignoring the problem until irrefutable proof happens to appear (by which point it would probably be too late)/hoping you get lucky/the estimates were wrong. The future of the planet is too significant to gamble on like that.

on Jun 27, 2009

Well, as I said before, the IPCC has stated a worldwide average temperature increase of about 2 degrees Farenheit per century (I believe the actual number is something like 1.3).  At that rate, I think it's safe to say that it is hardly an immediate problem, unlike what doomsayers would have you believe.  And it certainly doesn't justify eco-friendly DVD cases.

on Jun 27, 2009

And it certainly doesn't justify eco-friendly DVD cases.
yeah, you know how it is though, right? Eco-friendly is used as trademark, it does not really mean that the DVD is what it claims to be. You're lucky you are not in the EU.. the mysterious comissions in Brussels love to come up with exact definitions for those kind of things and then it would be illegal to claim to be ecofriendly if you don't fit the profile made by the EU.

People are tricked. I constantly see organic /eco friendly food in the grocery store that is imported from New Zealand, South Africa, South America etc to Germany. That is just a scam, how can it be ecofriendly if it has been transported half around the globe? 

on Jun 29, 2009

he IPCC has stated a worldwide average temperature increase of about 2 degrees Farenheit per century (I believe the actual number is something like 1.3).  At that rate, I think it's safe to say that it is hardly an immediate problem


Over a 10 year period I'd agree, it's unlikely to have a massive impact. However over a longer period of time it could well do, and while it may not hurt us massively, it could well hurt our children and their children (especially if you aggregate the effect of the temperature rise over all the years in the future), and we are not conducting ourselves in a sustainable manner if we basically mess things up for them for the sake of increased benefits now. As such although massive changes are unlikely to be cost efficient today, small ones may well be, and so there is a need to investigate which ones are likely to be cost effective. Also there are likely going to be other harmful side effects to emissions, such as to our health, which should also be factored in.

As for the eco-friendly DVD cases, that could also be due to the issue of scarce non-renewable resources.

on Jun 29, 2009

aeortar
Over a 10 year period I'd agree, it's unlikely to have a massive impact. However over a longer period of time it could well do ...

Yes, assuming the temperature rise is caused by humans.  If it is not caused by humans, the trend could easily reverse.

I guess that is the whole debate - are we the ones doing the warming?  I personally think that it would make more sense to blame the sun, as it does provide virtually every ounce of heat we have.

on Jun 29, 2009

IQofSpam

aeortarcomment 70Over a 10 year period I'd agree, it's unlikely to have a massive impact. However over a longer period of time it could well do ...
Yes, assuming the temperature rise is caused by humans.  If it is not caused by humans, the trend could easily reverse.

I guess that is the whole debate - are we the ones doing the warming?  I personally think that it would make more sense to blame the sun, as it does provide virtually every ounce of heat we have.

If you look at all of my post pertaining to this subject you'll see that I've been stating that. The sun affects all the planets in ways that we are just beginning to understand and in ways we don't yet.

aeortar

 
I groan whenever I hear someone justify a view of burying our heads in the sand re global warming based on there not being any 100% irrefutable proof of human activities having a significant impact on it. You shouldn't need proof to take action against global warming, you just need a chance. If there is a chance that human activities will play a significant role in causing a highly detramental state of affairs, and that those activities can be changed to avoid or greatly reduce such negative effects, then it should definitely be looked at. The pragmatic approach is to evaluate the cost of reducing the activities in question against the expected benefit this would have in terms of reducing the likelihood and/or impact of global warming (i.e. weighted by the estimated probability of the events occuring). It won't be possible to get exact figures, but if you can take several actions now at a fairly low cost which would be expected to greatly reduce the harmful effects later on, then it would be the most sensible course to undertake such actions now rather than ignoring the problem until irrefutable proof happens to appear (by which point it would probably be too late)/hoping you get lucky/the estimates were wrong. The future of the planet is too significant to gamble on like that.

There are several fallacies that one could pull from this above quote. Appeal to consequences is the reason why we have air bags in all of our cars and why we DON'T irradiate our food.  A decision should not be made solely based out of fear.  We can take a look at the black plague back in the middle ages.  The black plague killed a lot of people, but also people killed a lot of people due to the fear that that group of people were the cause.  Fear clouds our judgement.

If we are going to do something about our environment out of fear we should take care of North Korea and Iran because North Korea is unstable (once Kim Jong dies man who knows what will happen then) and if Iran gets nukes that'll cause a nuke race in the middle east.

My quote is comparable to the other quote.

on Jun 29, 2009

Gotta be careful not to mix everything together. Using technology and worrying or being fearful of the effects it can have on the environment is not the same as being worried about personas like Kim Jong Il. For one, we simply need the environment to survive, so being worried that pollution could actually endanger our own survival is sensible.

What the people in the middle ages lacked is knowledge, they believed the black plague in the 14th century was sent by god  as a punishment and did not understand why it did not hit everybody equally.  That lack of knowledge caused fear, which in turn made those look suspicious that did not get sick. Some sinners (in the context of mideaval society) stayed healthy and others that never sinned got sick and died. That inspired some to look for other reasons as to why the plague was spreading - modern medicine in Europe was born (or at least the scientific aproach to research sicknesses). The Rennaissance and its great minds like Leonardo Da Vinci are testament to that shift of mentality. I glossed over alot here, but the main gist is true enough.

Increasing our knowledge and using that knowledge and acting on it sensibly is the way to go, and fear is a great motivator, but it should not be the only reason why action is taken.

on Jun 29, 2009

There are several fallacies that one could pull from this above quote

Such as?

Fear clouds our judgement

So make rational and cool-headed decisions, such as looking at how to reduce our activities that are harmful on the environment, as opposed to opposing any and all such changes because of the fear that they may be a waste of money.

To put it this way, you're offered the opportunity of buying a special ticket. There's a 50% chance that holding that ticket will be worthless, and a 50% chance it'll be worth $100. You can buy it for $30. Would you say yes? What if you could buy it for $80? Now assuming your risk aversion/fondness isn't massive, you'd say yes to the first one, and no to the second. It would be foolish to say no to buying the ticket regardless of the price though (the same as it would be to say yes regardless of the price). Similarly it is foolish to say no to any actions to reduce emissions/the effect of human activities on the environment, just as it would be to say yes to completely eliminating any such activities.

assuming the temperature rise is caused by humans.  If it is not caused by humans, the trend could easily reverse

And current studies have determined it is highly likely that a significant amount of it is due to human activity - IIRC an IPCC had around half of the temperature increase thought to be due to human activity. There's still a chance it's not, but that shouldn't mean you ignore the issue.

on Jun 30, 2009

utemia
Gotta be careful not to mix everything together. Using technology and worrying or being fearful of the effects it can have on the environment is not the same as being worried about personas like Kim Jong Il. For one, we simply need the environment to survive, so being worried that pollution could actually endanger our own survival is sensible.

What the people in the middle ages lacked is knowledge, they believed the black plague in the 14th century was sent by god  as a punishment and did not understand why it did not hit everybody equally.  That lack of knowledge caused fear, which in turn made those look suspicious that did not get sick. Some sinners (in the context of mideaval society) stayed healthy and others that never sinned got sick and died. That inspired some to look for other reasons as to why the plague was spreading - modern medicine in Europe was born (or at least the scientific aproach to research sicknesses). The Rennaissance and its great minds like Leonardo Da Vinci are testament to that shift of mentality. I glossed over alot here, but the main gist is true enough.

Increasing our knowledge and using that knowledge and acting on it sensibly is the way to go, and fear is a great motivator, but it should not be the only reason why action is taken.

You stated what my point was THE NEED FOR MORE knowledge. I posted previously articles stating that global warming is not AGW and most likely there are multiple causes like the earth core heating up and the sun.  My example stands true and you gave it even more validity with your very own statement. There is no need to rush to conclusions about a topic that only has come in the fore front in the last 10 to 15 years.

As for KJ II I think if he shot one or two nukes that the aftermath of this would have a greater consequence then the current facade of AGW. If Iran gets the Nuclear weapons I GUARANTEE that the surrounding countries will get them as well.

aeortar

There are several fallacies that one could pull from this above quote
Such as?

Appeal to consequences, which I stated in my previous post.  If one is not enough then: appeal to force, post hoc.  Need I say more?

aeortar


Fear clouds our judgement
So make rational and cool-headed decisions, such as looking at how to reduce our activities that are harmful on the environment, as opposed to opposing any and all such changes because of the fear that they may be a waste of money.

To put it this way, you're offered the opportunity of buying a special ticket. There's a 50% chance that holding that ticket will be worthless, and a 50% chance it'll be worth $100. You can buy it for $30. Would you say yes? What if you could buy it for $80? Now assuming your risk aversion/fondness isn't massive, you'd say yes to the first one, and no to the second. It would be foolish to say no to buying the ticket regardless of the price though (the same as it would be to say yes regardless of the price). Similarly it is foolish to say no to any actions to reduce emissions/the effect of human activities on the environment, just as it would be to say yes to completely eliminating any such activities.


assuming the temperature rise is caused by humans.  If it is not caused by humans, the trend could easily reverse
And current studies have determined it is highly likely that a significant amount of it is due to human activity - IIRC an IPCC had around half of the temperature increase thought to be due to human activity. There's still a chance it's not, but that shouldn't mean you ignore the issue.

You're statement again isn't logical. You're assuming that there is a chance so we need to act now! Its like that car salesman and his pressure sale I sale you it at 10000 you need to buy now buy now!

This would be like if I thought I discovered a cure for a new deadly highly contagious flu strain.  Instead of putting it through any trial testing we should just administer it to as many people as possible and hope for the best.  If it kills a bunch of people I had good intentions and there was no time to stop and test.

There is time to do research and figure out A BETTER PLAN and to narrow down what is AND isn't causing it.  There is no need to make any hasty conclusions.  One final example would be the fact that we know that there are plenty of huge astreroids that may come in the Earth's path. We can do all the mathematical formuals to show that some of these asteroids will come really really close to hitting earth.  What we need to do is start building a missle defense system capable of blowing all those  rocks before they hit.  I am not saying we shouldn't have a plan but at least we now are looking and now that there are some rocks that are on a possible collision course for Earth BUT THERE IS NO NEED TO PANIC.

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