Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.

One of the sites I hang out on is called TreeHugger.com.  People who know me in person know that I’m pretty into helping the environment.  However, I just don’t find the evidence of humans materially affecting the climate to be persuasive.

Most of the discussions are about things like making your home more energy efficient or how to improve your local environment.

But every now and then, you get a global warming discussion and the militancy of the global warming advocates comes out. 

For example, one post entitled “How do we get through to these people?!” discusses the frustration they have in convincing people of the need to pass legislation that drastically reduces our carbon footprints because of the way carbon is affecting climate (in their opinion).

After numerous people responded pointing out how dumb the average person was and that was the reason I came on and wrote:

The reason so many GW advocates get the cold shoulder is because of the sheer arrogance many of them show. The GW issue is one I've followed since before it was remotely mainstream (like many here I presume) and there's nothing more aggravating than having some family member see 'An inconvenient truth" and then have them talk down to me as if they suddenly became climatologists because they watched a movie.


I think the best path is simply to try to get people to want to reduce their footprint (Carbon or otherwise) on the earth's resources. But having people who really are often come across as being brain washed insulting people who are skeptical or disagree (I mean really, how infantile is it to call people like me "climate change deniers" as if we're akin to holocaust deniers).


Incidentally, during the little ice age, heads of state officially blamed witchcraft as the cause of the earth cooling. Humans have always believed that they had the power to control the weather whether it be from gods or controlling CO2 emissions.

Another user had then come on and said that the environmental movement needs to combine its efforts to get effective legislation passed:

My proposed solution today is to bring all the fractured factions of the environemntal movement under one umbrella and provide a warm welcome for converts to join in and participate with a grass-roots effort that allows them to buy-in to it. This may be accomplished by clearly demonstrating affordable and viable sustainable energy solutions and other ways to save money at home with energy efficiency in the short run that offer them immediate returns. In essence, such an effort involves buying the hearts and minds of the people, which is a common business ploy many comapnies use today to gain a customer base.


Then, with a ground-swell of support in shear numbers that can't be ignored, a meaningful lobbying block may be created to rouse the attention of Congressional leadership. Finally, the entire effort must have a feeling of inclusion and provide the necessary money motives that converts and supporters alike can appreciate. It may be high-time to put aside self-righteous indignation and environmental snobishness that serves no purpose in fulfilling our unified goals.

I responded by saying:

The problem is that there is no homogeneous environmental movement. I consider myself an environmentalist but am extremely skeptical about human induced global warming. And I'm not alone. Most of my colleagues who have a similar technical or scientific background are skeptical as well. That doesn't prove anything other than to say that there's a lot of people who fall into my category of being environmentalists but don't think humans are materially affecting global temperatures.


In my opinion, having the government force us to do things "for our own good" is tyranny whether it's in the name of "security" or for "the sake of our planet".

Moreover, environmentalists often strongly disagree on solutions or are totally impractical. Wind energy and solar energy, for instance, won't do the trick any time soon. But try to build a nuclear power plant (0 emissions) and suddenly they get creamed by the envirnomental movement (either reducing our carbon foot print is life or death or it's not - clearly it's not to a lot of people in the movement).

A user responded to this and my other post by saying:

Ultimately it doesn't matter what anyone believes about Global Warming, it's going to happen regardless of what anyone believes about it, and believers and deniers alike will suffer the effects alongside each other. Being a denier simply makes a person appear less intelligent in the meantime.

In other words, because I’m a “denier” I just appear less intelligent.  He went on and said:

Well one thing we've learned is that denialists haven't actually looked at the same data. While we look at data put out by NASA, NOAA, USGS, and other scientific research groups, we've noticed that denialists get their data from oil industry lobbyists, and while some of the data is the same, the data they give has been cherry picked to leave out the data which makes it clear that A: rapid climate change is happening, and that B: human activity is a primary factor.

So you see, if you don’t believe in global warming, you're just not intelligent or you’re brainwashed by big oil. 


Comments (Page 4)
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on Jun 16, 2009

It is very hmm let me call it simple minded to just argue that there is no possible way itty bitty little humanity with the all the new technology developed and improved all the time could possibly have any effect on the global ecosystem and thereby mankind can in no way influence the global ecosystem. After all, what is all the technology in the world compared to erupting vulcanos or solar flares? (I would really like to know where the evidence for the theory of a heating up earth core being linked with masserupting of vulcanos can be found - I find vulcanos pretty awesome and really want to check it out but I dont have time to go and do the research. So if you know a good journal or article, let me know?)

Obama can introduce a flatulence tax for cattle in the south and in Texas.. since Americans seem to fervently believe that eating meat every day is healthy, that'd be a easy way for fast cash. Cows fart methane gas, don't they? I read somewhere that it also supposed to have some sort of a negative impact.. so eating too much meat is bad for the environment . Why don't the environmentalists go and sue McDonalds, Burgerking and Co. for endangering mankind? Everything is connected!

On a closing note, I  really do want to emphasize the role philosophy and ethics play when talking at all about the environment/nature. Do yourselves even really know why you advocate protecting the environment? What are you really protecting - the environment as mankinds habitat that needs clean air (another reason to cut back industrial pollution - it is just unhealthy), clean water and healthy food (anthropocentric argument) or do you feel that nature is god's creation and should be treated accordingly (theological argument) or do you think nature is a place where you can relax and regenerate and it makes you feel good - basically aesthetic arguments, or do you just extend protection to beings that can feel (higher animals) or include the  ecosystem as a whole like the Gaiaphilosophy does (they are pretty far out there though, but very popular). It is a fun thought experiment to go through all the arguments there are and to see what shoe fits yourself. And there is a strong connection between natural science and philosophy, because sooner or later there comes a point where science is inadequate to provide the all answers. I don't believe that there are truly great scientists that are not philosophical at the same time.

on Jun 17, 2009

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petroleum#Formation

Basically the notion that "it was hotter than because they had more CO2, so it became oil" is a retarded explanation.

Oil formed from deposition of biological matter over geological time periods. It is not a "storage" for CO2 from "hotter times". Heck, you could form it in an ice age. The more plant matter you had deposit, the more fossil fuels form from that time period, but the local temperature or CO2 levels are not a part of the equasion directly.

on Jun 17, 2009


Where did I say oil was storage anyway?  And yes, oil could form during an ice age but only if it had been warmer earlier on for biological matter to exist in the first place. That is what I meant with where does the oil come from? Once upon a time - dont ask which paleontological period exactly, the global climate was so different that the polar regions could support rich life which, over millions of years or how ever long it takes,  turned into fossil fuels. Local temperature and Co2 levels are insofar part of the equation as the estimated level of CO2 for the period where the biological matter that formed fossil fuels came from were very high. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:CO2-variations_hg.png

And then there is this stupid balance again - Co2 is, according correctly by you, bound in huge amounts in nature. The ocean, the forests etc. Then you have a constantly growing human population with needs for space and food - deforrestation is a big problem because less forest means less Co2 storage. It all seems to be connected in the worst possible way. So less forest for storage and more industrial output AND your beloved vulcanos etc etc. and more and more people alive that require more and more industry which just keeps the circle going. That is a problem that won't be solved anytime soon either.

on Jun 17, 2009

the_Peoples_Party
All you did was ad hominem, circumstantial ad hominen, and poisoning the well.  By the way, those aren't compliments those are fallacies.

Those supercomputers that are being used are doing the worst case situation.  I probably should remind you of what Dr. Jim Renwick, a top UN IPCC scientist, said about the credibility of those generated computer models.  I could easily say that a few of your organizations are liberial think-tanks, but I won't because that DOESN'T DISCREDIT SOMEONE'S CLAIM 100% of the time.  NASA climate data has had several errors/mistakes a la 1934 was the hottest year in U.S.

I'll supply more peer-reviewed journals as well since you have a love feitish for them.  Don't get me wrong I enjoy reading them but they are not infalliable.  As you stated with an ad hominen about Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte, if what you typed is true, his article did get published in a peer-reviewed journal (Energy and Environment), so you have a conundrum here.  Also, there have been investigations/lawsuits to several peer-review for being overly bias so just because something is peer reviewed doesn't mean its infallable. 

Your comment about someone not getting something published the first time is highly illogical.  Obviously, you've never sent something in to a journal.  Research doesn't always get in on the first try.  Even though you don't know who the author (s)(this is pertaining to the whole review process that a papers goes through. After being reviewed by peers the editor has the final say) are usually you've read enough of the materials from (in that field) that journal that you can tell who the authors are (we each have our own writing styles) or just use a little detective work, so with that tidbit of knowledge one does have the opportunity to be biased or some people have a very competitive nature which they'll disregard the research.  In Academia, most professors/researches have to have so many articles published in X amount of time and on top of that some universities want you to have it published in some of the more 'prestigous' journals.

With that said here you go some more journals:

http://www.springerlink.com/content/g28u12g2617j5021/?p=730c2f15f6a74e579386e4a91b32f300&pi=0&hl=u

They found that global temperature tends to descend in the coming 20 years and “The global climate warming is not solely affected by the CO2 greenhouse effect. The best example is temperature obviously cooling however atmospheric CO2 concentration is ascending from 1940s to 1970s. Although the CO2 greenhouse effect on global climate change is unsuspicious, it could have been excessively exaggerated. It is high time to reconsider the trend of global climate change,”

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v457/n7233/abs/nature07770.html

Here the evidence supports a scenario in which thresholds of meltwater from Northern ice sheets are periodically passed and the large dilution of the high latitude waters dilutes the salty surface waters of the Atlantic conveyer circulation, effectively and rapidly switching it off for a period. The high Northern latitudes cool abruptly while the reduced transfer of heat to the high Northern latitudes results in warming of the Southern oceans. In other words this is not a global warming phenomenon but is a massive and rapid change in the heat distribution of the Earth. The hemispheres respond in antiphase with a see-saw redistribution of heat due to large and rapid changes in ocean currents.

http://www.griffith.edu.au/conference/ics2007/pdf/ICS176.pdf

"“According to the findings reviewed in this paper, the variable output of the sun, the sun’s gravitational relationship between the earth (and the moon) and earth’s variable orbital relationship with the sun, regulate the earth’s climate. The processes by which the sun affects the earth show periodicities on many time scales; each process is stochastic and immensely complex." One can be lead to postulate that the same thing is happening on mars.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007GL030207.shtml

The study found that times of high solar activity are on average 0.2 degrees C warmer than times of low solar activity, and that there is a polar amplification of the warming. This result is the first to document a statistically significant globally coherent temperature response to the solar cycle"

http://cat.inist.fr/?aModele=afficheN&cpsidt=4048902

"Recent results have indicated strong correlations between climate parameters and solar activity. Upper troposphere and stratosphere temperatures have been found to vary in phase with the 10- to 12-year solar activity cycle. On a longer time scale, the global temperature, particularly the Northern Hemisphere land air temperature, has been found to be nearly perfectly correlated with the long-term variation of solar activity."

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2007P&SS...55..158R

This article was a fantastically interesting read because they used tree rings and they believe that the impact is from sollar activity and there's a cycle! Yet another articles says the earth's climate goes in a cycle!

You brought up mars here's neptune for you (we are not causing the situation on mars with what you stated about mars again  shows that its has to do with the sun/solar system) http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028764.shtml

"If changing brightnesses and temperatures of two different planets are correlated, then some planetary climate changes may be due to variations in the solar system environment."  The fact with mars leads me to believe that it has something to do with the solar system.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1961JGR....66..273S

This one found that there was a correlation of carbon-14 and sunspots. " Change in carbon-14 activity during these periods was inverse to change in solar activity in 22 of 24 instances (P.001)."  I'm not sure if you've  done any research/submitted an article you want a p to be that small that's an EXCELLENT finding.

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1997AdSpR..20..913F

A good read once again!

http://www.drroyspencer.com/Spencer_07GRL.pdf

Dr. Spencer was a former NASA scientist.  "To give an idea of how strong this enhanced cooling mechanism is, if it was operating on global warming, it would reduce estimates of future warming by over 75 percent,At least 80 percent of the Earth's natural greenhouse effect is due to water vapor and clouds, and those are largely under the control of precipitation systems. Until we understand how precipitation systems change with warming, I don't believe we can know how much of our current warming is manmade."

Here is another article by Dr. Spencer, except this one isn't peer-reviewed (wah wah waa) http://www.drroyspencer.com/research-articles/satellite-and-climate-model-evidence/ "Three IPCC climate models, recent NASA Aqua satellite data, and a simple 3-layer climate model are used together to demonstrate that the IPCC climate models are far too sensitive, resulting in their prediction of too much global warming in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions" He actually gives his email address at the bottom if you want to challenge him.

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2006GL028492.shtml

The rate of world sea level rise was greater during the first half of the 20th Century than during the second half.  I thought the glaciers were melting at a exceptionally high rate? Wait hmmmm what's going on? Oh its a political ploy.

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5818/1529

Speaking of how Greenland and Artic are melting so fast let's take a look at that.  Here they did and they  found that "the ice mass imbalance currently contributes about 0.35 mm/year to world average sea-level rise (a rate of about 1.4 inches per century)."  1.4 inches a century!!  Better roll them there pants up the flood is coming!!

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2007/2007EO180001.shtml

"The link between the frequency of tropical cyclones [hurricanes] and anthropogenic global warming has become an emerging focus. However, an analysis of the data shows that improved monitoring in recent years is responsible for most, if not all, of the observed trend in increasing frequency of tropical cyclones"  They're saying that its due to the increased monitoring of hurricanes!  SO IT IS MANMADE!

I could go on... I would greatly appreciate it if you stop espousing "EVERY legitimate scientific body.  Every one.  That's a lot.  INIDIVIDUAL scientists claim that they don't, but these people are a tiny minority (less than 1%)" unless you're going to back that up with a fact. Because all it does is make you look like a lepton.  Less than 1%.  Now if p<.001 is true then that would be an outstanding amazling correlation.  I've posted articles upon articles at first and all you did was adhominim them.  Then you stated you only wanted peer-reviewed (which I did give you some) and how I wasn't backing up what I said.  And Its just a right-wing nut jobs of the republician party.  Most of those people that I gave you teach at Ivy league schools and having gone to an Ivy League schools the right-wingers that teach there are few and far-between. This of course is not an exhaustive study done on my part.

I am basically through with this palaver.

on Jun 17, 2009

utemia
It is very hmm let me call it simple minded to just argue that there is no possible way itty bitty little humanity with the all the new technology developed and improved all the time could possibly have any effect on the global ecosystem and thereby mankind can in no way influence the global ecosystem. After all, what is all the technology in the world compared to erupting vulcanos or solar flares? (I would really like to know where the evidence for the theory of a heating up earth core being linked with masserupting of vulcanos can be found - I find vulcanos pretty awesome and really want to check it out but I dont have time to go and do the research. So if you know a good journal or article, let me know?)

You do realize that the earth's inner core is hotter than the outer layer of the sun (the photosphere). Volcanoes erupt to relieve pressure and to cool down the earth (the inner parts that is). 

Considering that the Sun is so massive.  Again, I feel its all a cycle (pertaining to the whole AGW). Your first sentence is just an ad hominen and actually could be used against yourself considering how small we are compared to the big wig hugey pugey enormous egigantic Sun.  Yeah that small rinky dinky ball of gas known as the Sun affects us on a very low level.

on Jun 17, 2009

Yea I know. Not disputing anything about that. Direct comparison between technology and cosmic powers like the sun or raw geothermic powers like vulcanos were not what I had intended. But it is undeniable that technology has a noticeable impact on the environment on all different kinds of levels, and it is illogical to argue that because there are so many raw uncontrollable powers in nature that artificial technology pales besides all that by default and to use this as a reason why technology can't have any serious consequences.
Even when the cycle theory about climate development is correct - and it does seem to make alot of sense - it does not mean argumentum e contrario that technology can't also have any impact at all. Maybe it is possible that technology (industry etc) might somehow alter or influence that  natural cycle? I am not really deadset on one global warming theory or the other, or being skeptical about it - the more research is done the better understanding there is after all. Knowledge is evolving and changing all the time, so it is pretty idiotic to simply refuse to acknowledge new results because they don`t fit in with what you believe.

The fact that raw natural powers are more powerful than most technology does not mean that technology can not also be powerful enough to affect the environment. This argument does not contradict anything you said though.

on Jun 21, 2009

I personally get tired of all the global warming/climate disaster movies and fightglobalwarming.com ads that are all over the place.  There is no proof that anything humans do in any way affects the climate.

And there certainly isn't proof that said warming will kill us, or in any way affect us.  Cold winters kill more people than hot summers.

Not to mention that there is no proof that, were disaster en route, that humans could do anything to stop it.  I mean, I've seen DVD cases of Mall Cop that claimed to be "eco-friendly."  That to me is just silly.  Being environmentally conscious doesn't mean you have to save the planet with DVD cases.

on Jun 22, 2009

Oh, and as for technology being able to affect the environment - the truth is, for anything short of a nuclear bomb, the answer is no.

If there was a surefire way to change the temperature of the planet even slightly, I'm sure magazines like Popular Science would have jumped all over it by now.  Think about it - the IPCC says that we've only seen a planetary temperature increase of about 2° F over the last century.  If a countermeasure lowered the temperature even a tenth of a degree, people would be ecstatic.

But they aren't.  Instead, Popular Science runs a few dozen articles on hypothetical technologies, such as harnessing sea waves for electricity, and a few other articles on what we need to do in the future.  The most recent issue is a prime example of this.

And we all panic and buy eco-friendly DVD cases because a computer model (read: very inaccurate) took some basic trend graphs and concluded we are all going to die.  Except that 1) the computer model cannot account for solar activity, 2) the computer model cannot forsee a change in the trend, like the Little Ice Age we once had, and 3) the computer model cannot analyze every bit of data necessary to predict the climate.  Wikipedia provides a nice example of point 3 in its article on global warming.

Just look at your local meteorologists.  Maybe they're better where you live, but in Indiana, they're dead wrong 50% of the time, and their temperature measurements should come with a ±5° warning at least.  They can't predict what will happen in the next 24 hours, yet people believe what they say will happen in the next decade, the next century, etc.

on Jun 23, 2009

i got popular science after years of abstaining and i was disgusted as the level of bull. its like it was taken over by braindead eco fear mongerers and others out of touch with reality, also their scientific analysis of items is now severely lacking.

on Jun 24, 2009

Well, since I don't know how many nuclear warheads have already been detonated - 2 ended WW2 and I don't know how many tests in Nevada, the pacific ocean and Kasachstan and other places I can't think of right now, by your statement the environment has already been affected and altered permanently by technology.

My argument about technology affecting the environment is not limited to possible effects on global climate but applies to all aspects of the environment. If you think about it, the development of new hightech is faster than the knowledge of all possible sideeffects can be researched. That is the crux of it - the unpredectability and unforseen consequences that can happen due to that lack of knowledge.

 

Just think about genetic engineering of new resistant crops - on the surface a great goal, but it also leads to all sorts of new problems and issues that nobody really thought about beforehand. If you alter the basic food groups, what sort of effects could that have? Not just for us humansm but also for the animals and other plants around? Maybe certain insects can only eat this one type of crop and if you alter it permanently, they go extinct. Their disappearance could in turn have effects on others and so forth. You can't really say for sure where the chainreaction might stop. That is also hightech.

on Jun 25, 2009

of course people have thought of it before hand, not only have you thought of it, many others did too. in fact many scientists who work in the field think about it every day, and they are a lot smarter and more educated than you.

on Jun 25, 2009

What's with all the insults hmm? Are you incapable of maintaining a civilized way of communicating? That example was not to show my smartmess but to highlight the impact of technology in many different fields, because IQofSpam was pretty clear that human technology could not influence anything. If you did not understand that, well then maybe you should go back to school.

on Jun 25, 2009

mmm, i didn't even realize i was insulting you. I was just being reasonable here:

fact: you seem ignorant of genetic engineering > conclusion: you are not sufficiently educated about biology, you don't need to be a genetic engineer, just some basic biology knowledge.

fact: to be a genetic engineer someone has to be among the smartest people on earth. conclusion: the majority of the smartest people on earth are probably smarter than a random luddite who makes dumb arguments.

fact: you make sweeping statements about a field you are obviously ignorant about. Conclusion: you think you know everything without a need to learn.

But when I think about it, I can see how it would offend you since you seem convinced that you are the smartest person in the world and know everything without ever needing to be educated about the issue.

on Jun 25, 2009

Ok, so you argue that you have to have a phd to form general conclusions like genetic engineering can have sideeffects that were unknown beforehand. It is your prerogative to appear like an idiot.

you seem ignorant of genetic engineering

I never said I was a genetical enginner, but why don't you point out exactly what was wrong in my example or what was so dumb in that line of reasoning? You just make statements without backing them up most of the time.

on Jun 25, 2009

Ok, so you argue that you have to have a phd to form general conclusions like genetic engineering can have sideeffects that were unknown beforehand.

Uh, no... to quote myself:

you don't need to be a genetic engineer, just some basic biology knowledge

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