Brad Wardell's views about technology, politics, religion, world affairs, and all sorts of politically incorrect topics.
A look at Republican and Democrat voter statistics
Published on February 3, 2004 By Draginol In Politics

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/index.epolls.html

I tend to be pretty caustic on debates because I don't have much patience for people who confuse their personal experiences or their feelings as facts. I like statistics but I understand why many if not most people stay away from them. Statistics can be manipulated to come about to nearly any conclusion. So it often takes a lot of time and effort to sift through the crap to get to actual meaningful data.

Even exit polls are full of stuff that are useless.  For instance, they talk about things like "What class do you consider yourself part of"  Other than for its psychological value, it is fairly meaningless.  But demographic data is hard to twist.  Things like "How much do you make" or "Are you married". It's very hard to twist that around.

Some stats of interest from the last election.

Are You Married? All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
Yes 65 % 44 % 53 % 1 % 2 %
No 35 % 57 % 38 % 0 % 4 %
 

Married people preferred Bush 53 to 38.

 

Vote by Income All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
Under $15,000 7 % 57 % 37 % 1 % 4 %
$15-30,000 16 % 54 % 41 % 1 % 3 %
$30-50,000 24 % 49 % 48 % 0 % 2 %
$50-75,000 25 % 46 % 51 % 0 % 2 %
$75-100,000 13 % 45 % 52 % 0 % 2 %
Over $100,000 15 % 43 % 54 % 0 % 2 %
 

People who pay federal taxes (people making over $30k per year -- $28k and below generally get fed taxes back at tax refund time) supported Bush. Only reason why last election was close was because "the poor" overwhelmingly supported Gore.

 

Vote by Education All Gore Bush Buchanan Nader
No H.S. Degree 5 % 59 % 39 % 1 % 1 %
High School Graduate 21 % 48 % 49 % 1 % 1 %
Some College 32 % 45 % 51 % 0 % 3 %
College Graduate 24 % 45 % 51 % 0 % 3 %
Post-Graduate Degree 18 % 52 % 44 % 0 % 3 %

Similarly while those in academia overwhelmingly liked Gore, those who just went to college to get out into the real world overwhelmingly liked Bush.

People who didn't even graduate from high school overwhelmingly liked Gore.

You see the correlation though - people who don't finish high school end up poor and need public assistance and end up voting for the candidate of the party promising to take from the producers to give to them.

I don't pretend to care about fairness in results. When someone yelled that Gore won the popular vote, that meant nothing to me. I don't care. Because I knew these stats. The margin for Gore's popular vote came from people who are on the dole. My greatest fear for my country is that over time we will become a nation of dependents. Look at those stats. The people who don't finish high school and end up poor are overwhelmingly supportive of Democrats. Over time, as services creep up into the middle class, you will slowly erode our freedoms and end up with a nation of dependents.  Take the adults who actually work for a living and the election wasn't really that close. Take the people who finished high school on up (Even those in academia) put them together and Bush won there too.

If you go through all the exit polls and start thinking about what the numbers mean you start to get a pretty clear picture of things.  The nation isn't as evenly divided (not in 2000 anyway) as some say. You have a slight but definite majority of those who work for a living, finished high school, and are living responsible lives in support of Bush. And you have a massive majority of those who have made poor choices in life who have their hands out waiting for the government to be their mom voting for Gore. And because there's now enough people who fit into that category, it has the effect of making elections quite close.

Which puts the Democrats in a position of wanting people to fail because as people fail in life, they inevitably become dependents of the government and hence constituents of the Democrats.  The only major exception to that are those in Academia or others who are exquisitely well educated who, in my opinion, are divorced from practical reality who imagine the down-trodden as victims of the rich or victims of powerful interests.

There are lots of ways to fail in life. But if you actually meet 1000 people who fall into the poor/uneducated/dependent category you'll find that the majority of them (if you don't believe this, use Google, this data is readily available) did at least 2 of the following:

1) Got pregnant before marriage

2) Didn't finish high school

3) Became addicted to a controlled substance

Note that I said two, not one. Everyone makes mistakes, but those who end up dependents of the government are typically guilty of having made two of those mistakes.  Sure, there are plenty of exceptions to that (so don't write letters about how your 28 year old friend's husband died leaving her with 4 kids, yes, there are legitimate victims in this). But in generally this is what causes someone to be dependent.

But many people choose not to learn about these things. It's a lot easier to say that Republicans are just a bunch of cold heartless bastards who are so greedy with their money that they don't want to help the downtrodden. The reality is that you will always have a certain percentage of the population that are just..well frankly just a bunch of losers. Throw money at them and they'll squander it and end up losers anyway. And when 60% of federal outlays now are about taking money from one person to give to another, I think it's fair to say that conservatives are already giving a lot.

Let's look at the stats again:

15% of the voters  makes over $100,000. Bush got their votes 54-43. That's a 11% margin (a massive landslide). Those people pay 54% of the federal taxes in this country. Heck, 90+% of the taxes are paid by those who make $50,000 or more which are all overwhelmingly Bush voters.  Like it or not, the picture is pretty darn clear -- the ones who vote for politicians for free goodies are, by and large, not paying for those goodies. They are basically using the federal government as a tool for self-enrichment.  Next time someone calls conservatives greedy, keep that in mind. It's not conservative (generally) voting for politicians promising to confiscate other people's money to hand over to them.

Will the United States eventually become a nation of dependents? It sure seems we're heading down that path. Now we have Bush and the Democrats both trying to outbid one another to hand out freebies to people.


Comments (Page 4)
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on Feb 06, 2004
The majority of those on welfare are children. Should they starve. Most of the parents on welfare are single and have few jobs skills. The type of work they do is not sufficient to earn both childcare and enough to pay rent and food. If they work two or three jobs, who cares for the children?
on Feb 06, 2004

Show me Americans starving, Sherye. Feel free to present evidence for this.  Feel free to show evidence of thousands of small children living on the streets.

None of which has anything to do with the argument I put forth in my article. People who become dependent on the government tend to vote for people whose policies will lead to the creation of more dependents. Add some time to the mix and you end up with a large percentage of society dependent on the government.

Every American already gets basic medical care, btw. Any person in the United States can go to an emergency room and be treated -- for free, regardless of their income. This exists today.  The problem is the term "Basic" keeps being upgraded. Now basic apparently means health insurance for getting free anti-biotics, prenatal care, heart surgery, etc.

Why do I get the feeling that in 50 years some holographic blog site will have people arguing how everyone needs a personal trainer?

on Feb 06, 2004
According to U.S. Department of Agriculture, in 2002, 34.9 million Americans lived in households experiencing "food insecurity" - that is, not enough food for basic nourishment - an increase of more than 3 million people since 1999. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Household Food Security in the United States, 2002, October 2003.)

-rob

(Source: http://povertyusa.org)
on Feb 06, 2004
Brad Wardell- Call me an optimist, but maybe we don't have to create a society of dependents. Maybe we can create a society that resembles the way Native American villages were. Where my neighbor would never go hungry while I sat eating. Where the village was one village, one people. Maybe I'm more of a dreamer than an optimist! (welcome to Candy's world)
I have a problem with statistics. I admit to picturing the people that read them staying in their offices and homes and never coming into the real world. I'd much rather see them reading Winnie The Pooh books.
A lot of people on welfare are single mothers. Their time on welfare is limited and they work for the money while their children under school age stay in Welfare daycares.
I have a hard time on voting days. I vote Independent. (sometimes just to be persnickety, I close my eyes and just point)
There are hungry children in American and I'm thinking the only way to prove that to some of you is for me to bring to some of these kids
to your houses for supper. You can email me your addresses.
And there is a subject that I've been hesitant in writing about, because it is a tender subject to me. SSI and Medicare. That is no doubt that some in need of it have never contributed to it, and you can think of it as another Welfare program. My daughter never had the chance to contribute before she needed it. And if I kept taking her to emergency rooms for free treatment, it would've been much more expensive to you, believe me. She was born with a chronic illness that creates many other health problems. I freely admit to needing help taking care of her medical bills and getting her prescriptions. And you bet I'm grateful that there is this form of help. Tender subject, but I'm ready.
on Feb 07, 2004
Wardell arrogance par excellence! You are a purposeful antagonizer simply to keep your points in the statosphere. How you could be so self-righteous to think that drop-outs are ignorami, forgetting that we are talking about minorities, senior citizens, and new citizens. That post-grad people are liberal is not so much a matter of intelligence but that they have more leisurely time to really study statistics and political science to come up with sensible decisions, not rubbish like yours. You keep harping on this nonsense of enslavement and dependence as though the downtrodden wish it that way. You never consider the trauma one goes through when he's told his job has been sent overseas, you don't reflect on what it might be like for a young girl impregnated and having to go it alone, you have no feeling for the seniors who have to decide on prescriptions or food on the table, when was the last time you had something nice to say about all the low paying workers that really keep this nation going, though they may not have the good fortune of an education, or help from parents who are well off? Your stats on taxes mean nothing when you do not include the regressive payroll and state sales tax the average are saddled with. Furthermore, I have never seen you come up with a stat that shows how much after tax income the higher bracket is allowed to keep in contrast to the paltry sum that the "lowlifers" have to struggle with. And you call yourself an independent and haven't yet decided on whom you will vote for!--give me a break.
on Feb 07, 2004

steven - pot calling kettle.

Like it or not, statistically, people who drop out of high school are by and large the ones who are poor.

It's not arrogance to point out reality.

A look at the poor in American society will give you a very particular household:

1) Single

2) Highschool drop out

3) Had first child before 20.

That doesn't mean all or even most high school drop outs are somehow dumb leeches on society. It means that those who are parasites on society tend to fit a partciular demographic.

Moreover, I have no problem with low-wage workers. They are part of the glue of this country. The problem is the no-wage people.

on Feb 07, 2004
I think its funny how Wardell thinks he knows every thing, about everyone and can paint such a broad stroke with such a narrow brush (or in his case, maybe his mind).

So you have a poll. It shows that Bush gets barely above a majority of voters among new college educated workers; shows the exact opposite for highly educated people; and shows that there is a clear majority from the very poor that votes Democrat.

Something he forgets to think about is that the very poor in this country tends to be Hispanic and Black - and they vote for far more then economic issues; many times they vote for social issues like immigration or racism.

And which party would you listen to: the one telling you that they'll give you a fair chance at education, help you pay your way, then the freedom to achieve the American dream - or the party that says you should pull yourself out of your own poverty that you created - even if you have no clue how to do it and feel like its impossible. SOMETHING ELSE WARDELL DOESN'T EVEN CONSIDER IS THAT MINORITIES HAVE THE LOWEST VOTING TURNOUT OF ANY SET OF CITIZENS IN THIS NATION. This means a great deal. Those minorities and poor people who don't work DON'T EVEN VOTE FOR THE MOST PART. The blacks and lower classes that do vote actually do work - and polls suggest this as fact. Look it up yourself..

I think the choice is easy for voters in that position.

The problem with Democrats is that they hardly follow through on promises anymore. Democrats are not interested in true single-payer universal insurance for medical care, Democrats aren't interested in keeping tuition at very low rates next to free. Democrats aren't interested in making sure cities have proper urban transit systems anymore then Republicans are nowadays.

That's the real problem in the modern day. The Democrats have no teeth anymore, no principle. And that is why I have a problem figuring out who to vote for...

Brad - in another thread you called Democrats "racists" in modern day for "enslaving" the people to government programs. I think you should look who's talking if you are wanting to belittle those on the bottom of the totem pole, and dehumanize them and say that their vote shouldn't count anyway.

You know - its a bit disgusting. I don't believe this way, and I'm not even black, hispanic, or poor... I'm not even eligible for a subsidized loan, let alone a federal pell grant for my college education.
on Feb 07, 2004
I've only read a few messages from you, Brad, and I can already tell you haven't got a grasp on reality in your arguments.

This has *nothing* to do with you on a personal level. But you've outspokenly come on here and given vast generalizations and 50% truths backed up with half-informed polls to try and convey a message.

You can't do this and not expect someone to actually point out the truth. I don't consider myself a Democrat or Republican. I believe in a pro-active government economically within a capitalist system; with a government that ensures total social freedoms.

I grew up in the south. I went to college in Memphis for a while - a city in where you are a minority if you are white (which I am).

You know - I know black culture very well, especially after living in Memphis.

The fact is - blacks that don't work - they don't vote at all. They are disinterested in society altogether. The most Democratic blacks I've ever met ALL worked hard, or if unemployed were looking for a job. This is fact, and you should know it.

To think you are so arrogant as to know how to categorize every poor voter as non-working, then give 50% truths to try and prove your claims. Its not only sick, its unethical.

I guess you are a true blue Republican. Hypocrite to the max.
on Feb 07, 2004
This is completely off subject but it seems an appropriate response.

I have always had the greatest respect for people who understand the complexity and nuance of systems - political, social, economic - feedback loops, checks and balances, equilibrium. I am not talking about being simply empathetic. It is rare to find these people, and often times people have an impression that they are always on the fence, or never can commit.

Seeing things in black and white, whether conservative or liberal, is the easy way out.
on Feb 07, 2004

I find it rather unfortunate that some people have such poor reading comprension that they come to claim that the opposite was said than was actually said.

What is more sad is that people who disagree with a given point seem inclined to not back up their disagreements with facts but instead emotion. At best, anedotal experiences are put out as if this somehow proves a general trend (even as they condemn me for making generalizations).

I'm an engineer by training. When I look at problems, I look at the numbers. The solution to poverty is to find ways of keeping people in school, keeping them off drugs, and keeping them from getting pregnant before their 21st birthday.

When call such statements as being "arrogant" it's saddening because they are essentially throwing up their hands and say "It's all too complicated to solve."

Let me give you an example:

The fact is - blacks that don't work - they don't vote at all. They are disinterested in society altogether. The most Democratic blacks I've ever met ALL worked hard, or if unemployed were looking for a job. This is fact, and you should know it.

This is a text book case of emotionalism. Just because you insist something is a "Fact" doesn't make it a fact. This is your personal experience. How about telling us what percentage of blacks in that state do vote? How about using quotes to back up your assertion that I somehow implied the the poor don't work? How about quoting to bakc up your assertion that I somehow brought race into it.

It is totally irrelevant whether all the people you have met have "All" worked hard. First, because I never claimed that they don't. I don't know the people you've met. Secondly, as I've stated in this thread, MOST poor people work their butts off. Most Americans work their butts off. Perhaps before rushing to some judgement about me you should read what I write instead of imagining what I write fits some preconceived characterture.

on Feb 07, 2004
quoted from Brad:

"I don't pretend to care about fairness in results.. . . I don't care.. . . My greatest fear . . . "

look in the mirror.
on Feb 07, 2004

That's a bit incoherent.

I don't care about fairness in results. I only care about fairness of opportunity. Everyone should get a fair shot at life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. But people aren't entitled to equality in outcome.

on Feb 08, 2004
I'll go for the fair shot--glad that you think so....If only the conservative wing would think so,too.
on Feb 09, 2004
"I find it rather unfortunate that some people have such poor reading comprension that they come to claim that the opposite was said than was actually said."

Well if you look outside your arrogant, look down upon others because you are automatically better attitude - you may understand I've said repeatedly in several threads that I don't have time to sift through every last word on these forums. I'm taking 20 hours of classes and doing a few things on the side that keeps me quite busy.

You have my opinion, and its unfortunate that you skew statistics and pretend that you know everything from one poll without understanding the facts behind some of those numbers - then yeah, maybe you are the one with a comprehension problem.

You obviously don't speak well to reason. That's the sad part here.

So you are an engineer. I'm in business. I look at statistics and see how they flow on a daily basis myself. If you can't look beyond the technical aspect and into the real world - then your comments don't apply.

Your words are what I call emotional attacks. You candy-coat the surface and say "the poor" consistently vote Democratic. That insinuates that the non-working poor actually vote - when there are substantial facts to back up a claim that they don't vote at all by a vast majority number. You are manipulating the facts so you can milk the tit of your anti-government message without regards to reality. The working poor vote Democratic by majority, as your poll suggests. And even then, they vote less often as is. I don't have time to launch an internet search and research it for hours then give you a response, i've already done that for a class of mine years ago - hence why I know.

Working poor - vote Democrat by majority. Non-working poor - rarely vote at all, and don't vote by majority. Wardell's manipulated message: all poor non-working people are Democrats. Its an easy scare tactic used by right wingers all the time. Use 50% truth in data to prove a pre-ordained message based on ideology - not reason or logic.

But you know, your skewing of the data to interpret it in your pre-ordained ideology just to bash those who see a legitimate role for something, that's pretty sad.

Has nothing to do with emotion. Has to do with reality.
on Feb 09, 2004
Sorry Brad,

but in response to the statement

The votes of the poor, in my view, count no less than the votes of the rich.


you replied

I'm not terribly interested in the demands of some guy sitting on his ass doing nothing but drinking our beer.


That strongly implies that you consider poor people in such light. It may have been an poorly thought or jest comment, but the fact remains that you made it and anyone who accuses you of having no respect for those hard working majority of poor people are in the right. You then go on to say

I find it rather unfortunate that some people have such poor reading comprension that they come to claim that the opposite was said than was actually said.


What are they suppossed to read into your comments? Are you now apologising for the earlier comment and saying that you believe poor people are not all lay abouts? Are you now admitting that non voting poor people are not automatically Democrats as there is no proof that they are?

Paul.
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