In one of the multitides of Michael Moore related blogs, one Moore defender essentially argued that unless you could debunk Moore's various conspiracy theories then we have no reason not to believe them. Their position, essentially, was that crackpot theories are true until proven false. Which is absurd. It's much easier for crank out a crackpot theory than to spend the time debunking it. In my opinion, Michael Moore's books and films are little more than well produced and polished crackpot t...
Most of the propaganda peddled in Michael Moore's new Fahrenheit 9/11 basically boils down to playing tricks with the old 6 degrees of separation concept and crude manipulation of statistics. As I wrote in my other article, I don't tend to have a lot of patience for gullible people. People who buy into propaganda strike me as weak minded. If someone buys into some crackpot conspiracy theory I don't tend to feel like I should put in the effort to debunk it. It's a lot easier to fabricate a biza...
I've been watching the tributes to Ronald Reagan this week. I've been somewhat dissatisfied with them because none of them capture the enormity of Ronald Reagan's contribution to mankind. They tend to focus on just one aspect of what he did. They tend to ignore the full benefit Ronald Reagan's presidency has given to us all. Ronald Reagan's achievements can be categories in three areas the made our lives better. Rich or poor, American or non-American, odds are, you directly benefited from one...
The Political Machine's statistical model is not poll based. When we designed it, we concluded that since ultimately it's a video game, we should only concern ourselves with the macro-based statistics. That meant not worrying about day to day fluctuations in polls. Instead, the goal was to use data (political party registrations, exit polling, census data, etc.) that was publicly available to get a clear understanding of the people who live in the states. From there, we then look at the...
There's been an interesting discussion regarding the War on Terror. Simply put, the discussion revolves around what the causes of 9/11 were, did the US "deserve" to be attacked and does the US really need to understand the "root causes" in order to win. Opinions vary on this, of course. But I will submit that historically speaking, WHY rarely, if ever matters. Nation states don't ask why something happened to them. They react instead to what actually happened. We may not like this. We may w...
Terrorism, by definition, is the act of performing random acts of violence towards a civilian population for the express purpose of creating fear and uncertainty and is performed by persons with no definitive origin. Al Qaeda wasn't targeting some person in the world trade center. They were simply murdering as many people as they could in the most arbitrary way to instill fear and panic amongst their enemies. Moreover, if a military aircraft from country X wrongly bombs a building full of ...
On June 30 Iraq begins to officially be run again by Iraqi's. That is the date of turning over sovereignty to them. The question then becomes, what's next? What should the US role in Iraq be? Personally, I would be in favor of a referendum in Iraq asking the simple question: Do you want the US military to remain in Iraq to help provide security and stabilization services or do you want the US military to leave. Whichever the Iraqi's desire the US should follow-up in my mind. If they wan...
Some months ago I wrote an article outlining why I thought that it was important that the middle east solve their terrorist problem themselves. Let me postulate one example reason why. Imagine this scenario: New York, Fall, 2008. A suicide bomber team has smuggled into the United States a crude 8 kiloton nuclear device. Assembled in lower New Jersey, the team rents a boat and brings it into New York harbor and sets it off. The destruction kills 47,000 people and destroys much of Manh...
Just for the record - stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons were never the principle reason for the coalition to remove Saddam from power. But the lack of these stockpiles is something those who have opposed the war have, in my view, cynically jumped onto to argue that the war was unjustified (as if those who were in favor of removing Saddam were losing sleep over mustard gas). Anyway, they are apparently starting to find some of this stuff. For whatever it's worth.
Another excellent satire over at Right Wing News. Here's an excerpt: Mr. Ben-Gorelick: Mr. Lincoln, you took us to war two years ago and said it was to save the union. Lincoln: It still is. Mr. Ben-Gorelick: And yet - and I’ll put this text in the record - there’s not a single reference in this speech to saving the union. Lincoln: It’s implied. Mr. Ben-Gorelick: Not a single reference. Isn’t it a fact that you said in the speech, “dedicated to the proposition that all m...
This evening on the way back from my son's little league game I turned on NPR. I was greeted with an incredibly sympathetic report on a Mexican immigrant who was on death roll for his roll in double homicide commited during an armed robbery. The report gave air time to every member of his family. Father, mother, sister, etc. It provided a sound bite from his attorney and talked about all the support he had received from various organizations. Missing from the report was a single word or me...
This was over at Right Wing News today. Thought it was hilarious. Here's an excerpt. Read the whole thing at the link below. Dan Koppel: I'm your announcer Dan Koppel here with my co-hosts Peter Brokaw and Laurie Malkin. It's late in the third quarter and the Damascus Jihadis have the LA Lakers on the ropes. It has been a dominating performance by the Jihadis... Peter Brokaw: You said it Dan! Nothing has gone right for the Lakers tonight and coach Phil Jackson's gameplan is the likely c...
The underlying model and algorithms for The Political Machine are pretty good. Ultimately, the model is a mishmash of polling data from dozens of sources combined with demographic data. What, I think makes The Political Machine special is that it makes heavy use of demographic data rather than just looking at polls. What that means, fundamentally, is that at the end of the day, conservatives tend to vote for Republicans and liberals tend to vote for Democrats and once you understand that, it's ...
John Kerry keeps talking about "Internationalizing" the war in Iraq. In a speech he put it quite plainly: "The United States is bearing 90% of the military and financial burden in Iraq." His assertion is that "Bush's go it alone policies" have created this situation. And Kerry is wrong, the US is "only" bearing roughly 75% of the total burden militarily (I don't have the exact figure and the number changes by a few percent but if you add the UK + Poland + Japan + Ukraine + Australia, + ...
The chart below is a chart of CO2 emissions vs. Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Many in Europe falsely accuse George W. Bush of "killing" the Kyoto accords. In actuality, the Kyoto accords died in the United States in 1998. They don't have a chance to pass in the United States no matter who is President because the Kyoto accords are, basically, a joke. Now, if you're not familiar with the Kyoto accords (most Americans who argue for it probably have never looked at it) let me gi...