Some months ago I wrote an article outlining why I thought that it was important that the middle east solve their terrorist problem themselves.  Let me postulate one example reason why. Imagine this scenario: New York, Fall, 2008. A suicide bomber team has smuggled into the United States a crude 8 kiloton nuclear device. Assembled in lower New Jersey, the team rents a boat and brings it into New York harbor and sets it off. The destruction kills 47,000 people and destroys much of Manh...

Just for the record - stockpiles of chemical or biological weapons were never the principle reason for the coalition to remove Saddam from power. But the lack of these stockpiles is something those who have opposed the war have, in my view, cynically jumped onto to argue that the war was unjustified (as if those who were in favor of removing Saddam were losing sleep over mustard gas). Anyway, they are apparently starting to find some of this stuff. For whatever it's worth.

Another excellent satire over at Right Wing News. Here's an excerpt: Mr. Ben-Gorelick: Mr. Lincoln, you took us to war two years ago and said it was to save the union. Lincoln: It still is. Mr. Ben-Gorelick: And yet - and I’ll put this text in the record - there’s not a single reference in this speech to saving the union. Lincoln: It’s implied. Mr. Ben-Gorelick: Not a single reference. Isn’t it a fact that you said in the speech, “dedicated to the proposition that all m...

This evening on the way back from my son's little league game I turned on NPR. I was greeted with an incredibly sympathetic report on a Mexican immigrant who was on death roll for his roll in double homicide commited during an armed robbery. The report gave air time to every member of his family. Father, mother, sister, etc. It provided a sound bite from his attorney and talked about all the support he had received from various organizations. Missing from the report was a single word or me...

This was over at Right Wing News today. Thought it was hilarious. Here's an excerpt. Read the whole thing at the link below. Dan Koppel: I'm your announcer Dan Koppel here with my co-hosts Peter Brokaw and Laurie Malkin. It's late in the third quarter and the Damascus Jihadis have the LA Lakers on the ropes. It has been a dominating performance by the Jihadis... Peter Brokaw: You said it Dan! Nothing has gone right for the Lakers tonight and coach Phil Jackson's gameplan is the likely c...

The underlying model and algorithms for The Political Machine are pretty good. Ultimately, the model is a mishmash of polling data from dozens of sources combined with demographic data. What, I think makes The Political Machine special is that it makes heavy use of demographic data rather than just looking at polls. What that means, fundamentally, is that at the end of the day, conservatives tend to vote for Republicans and liberals tend to vote for Democrats and once you understand that, it's ...

John Kerry keeps talking about "Internationalizing" the war in Iraq. In a speech he put it quite plainly: "The United States is bearing 90% of the military and financial burden in Iraq."  His assertion is that "Bush's go it alone policies" have created this situation. And Kerry is wrong, the US is "only" bearing roughly 75% of the total burden militarily (I don't have the exact figure and the number changes by a few percent but if you add the UK + Poland + Japan + Ukraine + Australia, + ...

Bush 2000/Bush 2004 African-Americans: 8%/11% Whites: 54%/58% Hispanic: 41%/44% Married: 53%/56% Not Married: 38%/40% Union Members: 37%/40% Gays: 25%/23% Gun Owners: 61%/67% Protestants: 63%/59% Jewish: 19%/25% Catholics: 45%/52% Republicans: 91%/93% Democrats: 10%/11% Men: 51%/55% Women: 43%/48% 18-29 year olds: 46%/45% 30-44 year olds: 49%/53% 45-59 year olds: 49%/51% 60+ 47%/54%

Wallstreet Journal read Rob Steele writes some advice for the Demorats on how they can win the next election: Dear Democrats, While you think about how to do better next time, please stay true to your core values and feelings. Don't restrain your anger; part of your problem in this election was that you didn't put it out there enough. If other Americans understood how truly mad you are it would make more of an impression. You need to try harder to make them see that you're smarter a...

Controlling land is meaningless but it is still telling the way non city voters tend to vote. Courtesy of USA Today

So what we can learn from the exit polls? Well we can learn that there is a big difference between the typical Kerry supporter and the typical Bush supporter. It is the stark difference between the two that makes the nation so polarized. Consider these exit poll results: VOTE BY INCOME BUSH KERRY TOTAL 2004 2004 Less Than $50,000 (45%) 44% 55% $50,000 or More (55%) 56% 43% No surprise there.  Middle class ...

The call has been made. Bush has won the election. It was more decisive than anyone would have believed. Bush: 286 Electoral Votes to Kerry's 252. Bush also won 51% of the overall popular vote, a definite majority of the overall vote. What's also significant is that turn out was very high this year. More people voted this year than any previous election by a significant margin (about 115,000,000 votes).  Bush won by almost 4 million votes overall. For those who dislike the Republic...

FoxNews has just called Ohio to Bush. That essentially means it's over. Bush has won.

Everyone hopes that their game will win. But right now, no one knows. Exit polls won't be useful in any remotely close states until the end of the day (beware of anyone trying to toss around any exit polls in battle ground states until the end of the day - whether they be for Bush or Kerry). We'll keep this blog running throughout the day and see how things go. 5pm EST: Only a couple hours left until the polls close in a few states. At that point, we'll be able to start looking and seeing ...

Conventional wisdom says that high turn out means victory for Democrats. While it is possible Kerry may win still, I don't think the pollsters have adequately taken into account just how high the turn-out is amongst Bush voters. Today my wife and I voted. And unlike 4 years ago, the lines were long. Not only were they long but looking at the pages of marked off voters, even at 10am this morning, most registered voters on the pages I saw had already voted. Incredible. Never seen anything li...